August consumer confidence # way down.

I was just watching CNBC europe and saw an interview with Deloss Smith of the Conference Board which produces this index. He was not very optimistic about the economy but the reason I'm posting this (and I was only half listening) is that he said something to the effect that the White House has been frantically calling for several days to get a preview of this number. My interpretation: they're scared shit of the weekening economy. This Friday, the day after Bush gets nominated the August job numbers come out. If the number is as disappointing as July's or if there is a negative number(jobs lost instead of created) my feeling is that this election is all over and that Kerry can almost go on vacation.

•  Yeah

  I don't doubt that Bush wants these numbers reported during the convention when the media is not listening.  If he is saying that America's on the right track (if he even talks about the economy at all) and then on Friday the numbers contridict his speech, it would be very embarrasing.

  by EMKennedyLucio on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 07:55:39 AM PDT

•  Bush is toast.

  by Maryscott OConnor on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 07:58:09 AM PDT

  •  asdf

    

    by leif on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 08:02:47 AM PDT

•  What if the media ignores it?

  They ignore most of the bad news for Bush, anyway, don't they?

  I really hope you are correct.

  by iconoclastic cat on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 08:12:59 AM PDT

  •  Who cares if the media ignores this...

    This is a sample (in theory anyway) of how the country feels.  If it feels bad, and the media ignores it, will it feel less bad?

    by Cheez Whiz on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 08:14:29 AM PDT

  •  they will ignore it

    are you people really that naive?  do you really think the bush adm will allow negative jobs number to be released? this administration has changed the way poverty, unemployment and pollution numbers are calculated. how many people know that when you stop receiving unemployment insurance, you are no longer counted among the unemployed? i know many people who have been out of work for over a year. to show a decrease in a pollutant, they raise the acceptable standard. and the now monthly revision of job numbers-- i dont remember the clinton adm doing that. the fix is in.

    by texas hostage on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 08:31:40 AM PDT

  •  Tne Nonfarm Payroll Number is never ignored.

    It might be the most closely watched economic number by stock market investors,especially when coming out of a long period of economic softness. If the number is tepid again it might mean that the economy is heading into another severe slowdown. And you all know what time of year the stock market most often crashes. And if the stock market crashes in October it's bye, bye Bush without even trying. After all, what is the most prevalent form of terror in the U.S.? It's being without a job, with no health insurance, two or three kids and a nice fat mortgage.

    by LEP on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 08:47:23 AM PDT

•  Jobless #s always go down in August.

  Students leave their part-time jobs to return to school. Job rates increase in the spring when students get hired for minimum wage service jobs. An analysis of real job growth (permanent, living wage jobs) would paint a far more dismall picture.

  by banjon on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 08:29:43 AM PDT

•  Friday 8:30 AM: The moment election is decided

  I''ve been saying this for a month now, LEP. A shitload of ammunition awaits someone this Friday at 8:30 AM (or is it 8:00). This could literally be the moment this election is decided. Maybe this statement is too bold and we are making a little too much out of it but I don't think anyone will deny that the August jobs numbers are the most important yet. If the numbers come in at or above expectations then Bush will come out of his convention with a strong bounce and some serious firing power. I can hear him later in the morning in Iowa or someplace speaking to a rally: "Did you happen to hear those jobs numbers this morning."

  On the other hand, if the numbers come in below expectations this would solidify Kerry's lead on the economy and give him enough ammunition to last until election day. This would cast a pall over any excitement Bush mangages to generate during his convention. If the numbers are bad then they are coming out at the very worst time for Bush: about 9 or 10 hours after he gives his acceptance speech. If they are good then the opposite is true. There's suspense for everybody here.

  by kinksfan on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 09:01:24 AM PDT

  •  I agree.

    September 3rd could be the most important date in this election. October 8th could be more important if this Friday's numbers are ambiguous. All the time remembering that it takes about 125,000 jobs just to keep up with the increase in the labor force. And soldiering jobs in Iraq don't count.

    by LEP on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 09:30:27 AM PDT

•  Could the numbers be faked?

  Is it possible of anyone--such as Rove, etc.--to force fraudulent numbers to be published?

  by iconoclastic cat on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 09:28:38 AM PDT

  •  Fraudulent numbers?

    I don't think it's possible. You'll have to ask Robert Reich. But if you hear Bush stammering all through his acceptance speech you'll know the numbers are bad.

    by LEP on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 09:35:18 AM PDT