Anyone on this site been polled by Gallup?: Report

This is a diary to find someone.  If you have participated in the Gallup poll this election season or frankly any season; please write in and tell us the series of questions you were asked. We need to have some idea why their likely voter screen has been tilted so much toward Bush.  So please respond.  If you think this is important to know,  we need to keep this diary up; in this light please then recommend this diary.

From comments in this diary. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/9/16/171052/232_We need to start looking at their partisan breakdown.  We need to loudly question their likely voter screen.  We need to find somebody that CNN polled, who uses this site,  and ask that person what questions they asked.  Specifically what questions they were asked to decide if they are a "likely" voter.  It's supposed to be 5-7 questions which determine if you are a likely voter.  We need info to start figuring out why their screen is so tilted toward Bush supporters._

It's Rosh HaShonah, so I am sorry I will not be here to monitor till later tonight, but feel free to post. (There is a diary which puts forward the proposition that could explain the numbers on today Rasmussen Reports)    

•  Never

  been politically polled ever.

  by joojooluv on Thu Sep 16, 2004 at 04:13:08 PM PDT

•  Never.

  Don't know anyone who has, either.

  I do occasionally take the online Zogby polls, but I had to ASK to be asked.

  by Maryscott OConnor on Thu Sep 16, 2004 at 04:16:06 PM PDT

•  Never...

  ...been polled either, but my family screens calls with the caller ID. If it isn't something we recognize, we assume it's a telemarketer & let the answering machine pick it up.

  by Rimjob on Thu Sep 16, 2004 at 04:16:44 PM PDT

•  I was polled

  But not by Gallup. It was in 2000, and I am pretty sure it was an internal Republican poll of Pennsylvania. Let's just say I gave them some really bad news.

  by Chris Bowers on Thu Sep 16, 2004 at 04:18:16 PM PDT

•  I have been, but

  it's irrelevant.  Gallup poll but it was Bush I vs Clinton.  So I doubt the relevancy of my memory, if I could remember it exactly.  I got my call at an odd time.  Was mid morning on a weekday.  I happened to be working strange shifts or I never would have gotten it.

  by DanD on Thu Sep 16, 2004 at 04:22:07 PM PDT

•  Not by Gallup

  Got polled by Zogby during the Dem. Primaries, Husband has been polled by (I think) CBS for this year.  We also have gotten maybe two calls from Detroit TV stations taking polls.  But no Gallup (yet).

  (Oh yeah, always do the online Zogby as well. The above are all phone polls.)

  by LauraC on Thu Sep 16, 2004 at 04:27:53 PM PDT

•  Gallup's "Likely Voter" Screen

  If I recall correctly, Gallup asks a series of 6 or 7 questions, one of which is, "Did you vote in 2000"? (the others purport to relate to intensity of interest in the election, whether you know where your polling place is, etc.) Each "positive" response counts for 1 point, each "negative" is zero.

  They then reduce the number of responses to their presumed turnout level, which, (again, relying on my memory), is 55% of those polled, beginning with the highest numbers (6 or 7) until they get down to 55% of respondents.

  The effect of this is to reduce the effect of young people (who couldn't vote 4 years ago), anybody who's moved since the last election (since they may not yet know where their polling place will be this year), and newly-registered people who were never motivated before. Thus, they undercount Democratic voters, who tend to be younger and more urban (and hence, move more often).

  by precinct1233 on Thu Sep 16, 2004 at 04:29:36 PM PDT

•  re: Likely Voters

  Here is a good analysis of why Gallup is so off this year.

  Professor Alan Abramowitz of Emory University focused on two related points. First, his arithmetic indicates that Gallup's latest poll projects that 89 percent of Bush voters are "likely voters" while just 79 percent of Kerry voters will turn out.

  Abramowitz notes that this projection is wildly out of sync with history. The turnout gap between Democrats and Republicans has averaged three points in the last three presidential elections and never exceeded four points. In 1992, the turnout gap was just one point, according to Abramowitz. Gallup's 10-point turnout gap just does not comport with the historical record.

  Abramowitz also put his calculator to work demonstrating that Gallup's likely-voter pool in its recent poll has more Republicans than Democrats. According to the exit polls, that has never happened before. In 2000, Democrats had a three-and-a-half-point advantage on Election Day. Applying the 2000 partisan breakdown to the recent Gallup results would have shown Kerry leading Bush by four points among likely voters.

  In short, Abramowitz argues that the Bush lead Gallup reported among likely voters is solely a function of assuming that there will be more Republicans than Democrats at the polls in November, a situation that has never occurred in real life.

  
  

  by Coldblue Steele on Thu Sep 16, 2004 at 04:34:04 PM PDT

•  question

  Why would you assume their methodology is flawed?

  I was polled recently.  It was a state+national poll.  I'm certain I qualified as a likely voter. I didn't question the methodology there at all, though some of the questions were flawed.

  In this poll, the pollster was not a major polling outfit, but I wondered who was behind it of course. They won't say who contracts them.  Could have been a campaign, although the questions didn't push in any clear direction.  

  by markymarx on Thu Sep 16, 2004 at 04:41:11 PM PDT

•  Been phone polled a couple times, not by Gallup

  Actually I was polled once, my wife once.  The poll my wife did was for state senate race.  The one I was doing was a bait & switch - it was about 3 months ago and they started out asking all sorts of political questions and I was like cool, I'm getting polled for something important, but then they got into some company-specific stuff for Phillip Morris and basically asked whether I thought their campaign was successful at teaching kids not to smoke (push polling by the tobacco company) - I let them have it because I think their ads are deliberately flawed so that they don't discourage anything.

  Also been polled 2x by Zobgy Interactive if that's worth anything - but like others I had to sign up to be asked.

  -Fred

  by FredFred on Thu Sep 16, 2004 at 04:56:00 PM PDT