Rumor that Kerry blamed hurricanes on Bush today?

OK, I was told that Kerry issued a statement today that blamed this year's hurricanes on Bush, saying that global warming warmed the seas to the point where more violent hurricanes are forming. I googled and found only a couple of old jokes to this effect. Did somebody on right wing radio today claim that Kerry said this? I'm having a LOT of trouble believing that Kerry went this far off message.

•  Wingnuts are insane and they lie

  So my guess was that whoever told you that was suffering from one of those two maladies.

  by Raybin on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:20:11 PM PDT

  •  Not insane, and not a liar but . . .

    Gets his news from radio and TV rather than newspapers or magazines. And tends to retain whatever redounds to Kerry's discredit. My guess is that he tuned in to the end of a parody.

    by Cowalker on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:32:48 PM PDT

•  Well, it is either true now or will be in the near

  future. I'd have no trouble with JK getting aggressive on climate change here.

  It's a simple fact that the ocean temps in the Caribbean and nearby areas have warmed significantly (check out the destruction of coral reefs by repeated bleaching events due to water temps above 86 degrees F).

  With warmer ocean temps, more and bigger hurricanes are inevitable.

  Bush may not have directed this personally, but he's certainly helping to prevent us finding a solution.

  by dabize on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:30:27 PM PDT

  •  I really hope Kerry doesn't go there right now

    I listened to a scary piece on melting ice shelves on NPR. Yes, there are totally legitimate reasons to be afraid of where pollution is leading, but that kind of statement would play into the hands of wingnuts everywhere. Blaming Bush for the weather sounds like tinfoil hat territory to people who have been listening to Republican "science" for the last 20 years.

    by Cowalker on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:36:59 PM PDT

    •  I think JK learned this week that being

      intimidated into passivity is far worse than making strong attacks. There are island nations in the Pacific that are going under - forever- because of global warming. Florida is almost entirely within a few feet of sea level now, and will be massively affected by global warming - no matter WHAT we do now.

      Bush has been SO irresponsible on the topic that he should be attacked.

      Remember, the wingnuts will tell lies about JK no matter WHAT JK does.

      by dabize on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:41:39 PM PDT

    •  This Is Sure As Hell NOT

      tinfoil territory.  It's hard science and the use of Occam's Razor should be utilized by any thinking person.

      This is not rocket science, but it IS science and Kerry better damn well go there.  To do otherwise is totally irresponsible.

      Let the Luddites claim otherwise.

      Don't believe it at your own risk.  And mine.

      And, I would suggest that if anyone would dismiss it out of hand then they'd better start figuring a way to appease the storm gods. Or think "Who would Jesus kill and destroy with hurricanes.  And why."

      by mattman on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 10:41:48 PM PDT

  •  It's not quite as simple as that.

    Superimposed on global warming effects, there is also a long, 30-40 year cycle of variation in water temperature in the Caribbean. We're just coming out of a period of cooler waters. So you can't just point to all the hurricanes this year and say they're caused by global warming. That may be part of it -- indeed, I'm sure it's aggravating the situation -- but there's also a known pattern of hurricane-heavy years like this in the weather records.

    Unfortunately, real science doesn't lend itself well to soundbites.

    On the other hand... given what's at stake this year, if you think it will help, go ahead and say the hurricanes are all Bush's fault for ignoring global warming. Because he has been ignoring it, and even if it's all too complicated for TV, he has indeed been at fault.

    Heck... if you think it will help, feel free to say the hurricanes are his fault because God is mad at him.

    by Canadian Reader on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:52:10 PM PDT

    •  I'm well aware of it, and know the subject well

      I'm a research scientist when I'm not going off my nut at the prospect of a Bush re-installation.

      If you count Bonnie, the events of this year are unprecedented, but I take your point.

      However, we are past the point at which we can insist on a P << 0.001 significance level before we start taking evasive action.

      To do this is irresponsible, and JK should say so.

      by dabize on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 10:06:27 PM PDT

•  Kerry, Hell, I'll Do It!

  This is too freaking weird.  In recorded history nothing like this has happened. Ever.

  Now I'm a scientist and 4 major hurricanes in a month is just no coincidence and failure to recognize a pattern is sheer incompetence. And they just keep coming and coming and coming.

  Your other choice is to blame the gods for this.  And if you do that, you're still coming up with, what are the hurricane gods pissed off about?

  Can you say JEB AND GEORGE BUSH?

  Interestingly I heard that people tend to blame those in power when major disasters hit them.  When they get hit four times they have got to be asking themselves hard questions. And they are. This defies any other explanation.  

  Take your pick.  It's either global warming or a Divine Warning.

  This does not bode well for the Bush boys, either one of them.  

  Clearly this can tip Florida for Kerry bigtime. he would be foolish not to point out the obvious.  We have screwed with Nature far too badly and far too long and our chickens are coming home to roost.

  And in poor benighted Florida, even their roost may be gone with the wind.

  by mattman on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:37:32 PM PDT

  •  You bet!

    Our brother and his family is in Florida.  He's a cosmologist and he's raging mad at Bush for doing nothing about global warming.  RAGING mad. Real vehemence from a gentle person.

    by eyeswideopen on Sat Sep 25, 2004 at 12:19:41 AM PDT

    •  Yay! Good On Him!

      Suggest that he talk about this with EVERYONE he meets.  Everyone.  At the gas station, grocery store, clients, vets, hardware store, while he's in the line at the bank, at his children's school at PTA meetings or picking them up, their teachers,  soccer games etc. It's not just about his kids, it's all the other kid's moms and dad.  

      Believe me, they will all listen, now.  He will open minds and change them.

      Tell him the ripple effect will amaze him. He will be a force for change.  And, we need his voice.

      This is good for Kerry but it's even more important.  This is about survival.  Repulgicans don't care about our survival.  They're not smart enough to care about their own.

      Repugs NEVER mind about throwing people overboard, they just don't want to hear the splash.  They won't "get it" until they're sucking water themselves.

      And, that's happening now. Ask him to strike while the iron is hot and people are scared.  Being scared concentrates their minds wonderfully.

      I hope he and his family are safe.

      by mattman on Sat Sep 25, 2004 at 01:18:58 AM PDT

•  NOT at today's Kerry rally.

  He didn't do that at the rally today.

  by Newsie8200 on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:37:54 PM PDT

•  Well...

  I don't think Kerry claimed this, but I wouldn't be surprised if a surrogate did.

  Speaking in actual fact, hurricanes are cyclical (the cycles last 30+ years), along with tropical ocean temperatures. So far, it looks like this cycle peak is worse than usual, but it's hard to pin that definitively on global warming. It could be random luck, or it could be part of some longer scale cycle.

  It is a fact that average ocean temperatures have risen over the past century, but it will be a while before we have enough data to definitively pin hurricanes on that. Certainly though, if the climate gets warmer, there WILL be more and stronger hurricanes.

  by fwiffo on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:38:43 PM PDT

  •  If Kerry had actually said it, or even an official

    surrogate, I can't believe it wouldn't be all over the place as a sound bite. So I'm highly skeptical.

    by Cowalker on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:43:19 PM PDT

    •  Doesn't Matter If Kerry Says It

      or not.  I can assure it is being talked about all over the USA.  Even the Talking Hairdo on CNN said this was being discussed at every dinner table in America.

      This is an excellent time to bring global warming up for discussion.

      Before anything else, I am an environmentalist. Period.  And if you are not, then you are suicidal and should seek counseling immediately.

      Full stop.

      by mattman on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:52:00 PM PDT

  •  This is a no - brainer

    Tell me, how many Floridians have heard - time and again - that "the hurricane will be moving over the warmer waters of the Gulf during the next few days, and therefore is expected to strengthen into a major storm" -

    The link between warmer water and stronger hurricanes has ALREADY been drilled into the subconscious of Florida voters - and unlike the stuff about Kerry hiring Satan to ban all of the Bibles in America when he gets elected - it happens to be TRUE.

    Why not say it?

    by dabize on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:45:58 PM PDT

    •  But did he say it?

      This is what drives me nuts, the allegation that fades away. As I understand it scientists who study weather patterns aren't ready to attribute this hurricane season to anything other than cyclical patterns, so it seems very odd to me that Kerry would choose this as an environmental issue to highlight the day after Allawi and Bush held a press conference to tout Iraq as the perfect vacation getaway.

      by Cowalker on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:53:27 PM PDT

      •  That Doesn't Wash. Sorry.

        You can only use the "cyclical" argument if you can show where there has been a prior cycle in which four hurricanes hit in the same time frame.

        You may suggest - correctly - that there have been prior cycles that have had increased hurricane activity, but as I have stated, not one ever recorded like this one.

        And when you have this level of activity then you damn well better start looking for underlying or contributing factors.

        As dabize says, this is a no brainer.

        by mattman on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 10:08:46 PM PDT

      •  Scientist are perfectly willing to say

        that warmer ocean temps are a likely influence on storm patterns, but the cycles make this difficult to establish statistically - if isolated from the big picture.

        So what scientists can get published and what their best opinion is on the subject are 2 very different things.

        Remember that scientists are now clearly saying that the atmosphere has warmed significantly since the onset of the Industrial Revolution, since the cyclical patterns superimposed on the temp increase due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases has finally been swamped by the magnitude of the increases.

        Somehow, I doubt that the reality of global SST increase is doubted any more by any serious scientist in the area.

        by dabize on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 10:16:53 PM PDT

        •  Dead On

          Some years ago, I saw a highly respected scientist at a conference being asked by reporters whether global warming was real or something rather Cassandra-ish.

          That man pulled out an envelope he had in his pocket and in under two minutes he showed the reporters how very real it was to a mathematical certainty.

          On the back of a goddamn envelope.

          by mattman on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 10:32:31 PM PDT

•  You know what else?

  Al Gore invented the Internet. Someone on right-wing radio said Al told him so.

  Fucking zealots. May they all rot in hell.

  Speaking of hell, I'm not sayin' there is a God, and I'm not sayin' there isn't one. But if there is a God, He or She sure seems pissed off at Florida. What's next for them? Locusts? Or worse ... a lifetime of gubernatorial Bushes?

  by JacksonBlogs on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:44:30 PM PDT

  •  So many reasons

    not to move to Florida.

    by Cowalker on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 09:54:20 PM PDT

•  hurricanes and global warming

  this diary inspired me to research the relationship btwn global warming and hurricanes.  A lot fo very reputatble scientific organizations make the connection:

  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/9/25/11339/6086

  by pontificator on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 10:19:06 PM PDT

•  Bush not to blame, but...

  Bush is not to blame for the current hurricanes.  I'm almost certain of that.  If the greenhouse effect has had anything to do with them though, which does look like a possibility, the cronies he protects are to blame.  And he's to blame for being unwilling to do anything about it.  That's something Kerry can say legitimately.  We don't know for sure that greenhouse gasses have anything at all to do with the increasing hurricanes, but we know that it's a real possibility, and we also know that the administration has forced the EPA to remove the parts about the greenhouse effect from it's documents!  I think a lot of moderate Republicans would be shocked to find that out.

  Of course, maybe I just want to "blame America first."  As we all know, the hurricanes hate us for our freedom.

  by sickandtired on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 10:36:54 PM PDT

  •  Of COURSE, Bush Is Not Responsible

    Osama Bin Laudin is. If not him, then Zarqawri.

    One of those bastards for sure And, btw, stem cell research has no merit either.

    by mattman on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 10:55:34 PM PDT

    •  No, no, no, no, no

      It was Saddam.

      by MarkInSanFran on Sat Sep 25, 2004 at 01:44:51 AM PDT

      •  Yeah, BUT

        there was connection between them and don't you forget that.

        Weren't they lovers or something.  It was a menage a trois, I think.

        But don't you fret none.  It's all ok.  Chimpy's got Saddam's pistol amd he can whup the hurricanes with that.

        There now.  Don't you feel much better?

        by mattman on Sat Sep 25, 2004 at 02:39:54 AM PDT

•  wasn't that a joke

  someone made here?
  or here?t

  by binFranklin on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 11:23:59 PM PDT

  •  I may have said it before

    But I didn't think of it as a joke, really.  I thought it was the easy connection, I guess, that I figured others would have made themselves.  The kind of obvious thing that would be in a Leno monologue.

    by sickandtired on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 11:38:06 PM PDT

•  Thanks for the input

  Thanks for the comments. I agree that Bush has allowed global warming to progress apace, that it will have terrible, maybe universally lethal effects on humanity, and that it is already contributing to extreme weather.

  I just wondered if Kerry had actually blamed Bush policies for the hurricanes. The reason I think it would be unwise of him to do so is that it would be twisted just as his reference to waging a "sensitive war" was. EVEN THOUGH BUSH HAD ALREADY SAID THE EXACT SAME THING! It still distracted people momentarily from the horrible decisions Bush made regarding Iraq.

  I'm totally in favor of everybody who is not currently running for president making the case for connecting Bush environmental policies to the hurricanes.

  by Cowalker on Sat Sep 25, 2004 at 06:52:49 AM PDT