Below is how I see the political status of Southern states after the November 4th elections:
(Note: National Elections = President, Senator, U.S. Representative; State Elections=Governor and other statewide officers, state legislature. "Registration" information from the state's Secretary State's Office. "Voter ID" information from Pew Research Center Polls taken after 9/11 to the present. Link to Pew Research Data can be found at the end of this entry.)
TEXAS-solidly GOP in national and state elections. Voter ID: 39% GOP, 29% DEM.
OKLAHOMA-solid GOP in national elections, moderately DEM in state elections. Registration: 53% DEM, 37% GOP. Voter ID: 45% DEM, 38% GOP.
LOUISIANA-slightly GOP in national elections, strongly DEM in state elections. Registration: 57% DEM, 23% GOP. Voter ID: 42% DEM, 33% GOP.
ARKANSAS-even in national elections, moderately DEM in state elections. Voter ID: 34% DEM, 31% GOP.
TENNESSEE-strongly GOP in national elections, even in state elections. Voter ID: 35% GOP, 32% DEM.
KENTUCKY-strongly GOP in national elections, even in state elections. Registration: 58% DEM, 35% GOP. Voter ID: 44% DEM, 35% GOP.
MISSISSIPPI-strongly GOP in national elections, moderately DEM in state elections. Voter ID: 39% DEM, 36% GOP.
ALABAMA-strongly GOP in national elections, even in state elections. 36% GOP, 34% DEM.
GEORGIA-moderately GOP in national elections, moderately DEM in state elections. 36% DEM, 34% GOP.
FLORIDA-even in national elections, moderately GOP in state elections. Registration: 42% DEM, 39% GOP. Voter ID: 37% GOP, 36% DEM.
SOUTH CAROLINA-strongly GOP in national and state elections. Voter ID: 37% GOP, 29% DEM.
NORTH CAROLINA-moderately GOP in national elections, moderately DEM in state elections. Registration: 48% DEM, 34% GOP. Voter ID: 44% DEM, 32% GOP.
VIRGINIA-moderately GOP in national elections, moderately GOP in state elections. Voter ID: 33% GOP, 30% DEM.
WEST VIRGINIA-slightly DEM in national elections, strongly DEM in state elections. Registration: 60% DEM, 29% GOP. Voter ID: 44% DEM, 33% GOP.
MARYLAND-Strongly DEM in national and state elections. Voter ID: 56% DEM, 30% GOP. Voter ID: 44% DEM, 31% GOP.
DELEWARE-Strongly DEM in national elections, moderately DEM in state elections. Registration: 43% DEM, 34% GOP. Voter ID: 32% DEM, 30% GOP.
So with this in mind I see Democrats realistically having a shot to win presidentially races in AR, WV, LA, FL, MD, DE totalling 60 electoral votes. Bush has these other states pretty much in the bag TX, OK, TN, KY, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA(?) totalling 126 electoral votes. Virginia is a question for the future as it is slowly moving into play.
The advantage for Republicans rest primarily on social issues which fueled their rise in the South. These include: race (specifically anti-African Americans sentiment), abortion, guns, God (religion), gays and feminism. Other issues include "patriotism" personified by opposition to flag burning and support for the pledge of allegiance. You might add "crime" but this is really tied into the issue of race in many ways. Other non-social issues have also fueled the GOP rise include national security and taxes. In the case of these issues national Democrats have increasingly found themselves on the "wrong" side as far as most Southern white are concerned.
So what kind of Democrat can win these states? Well of course one perceived as strong on defense, against abortion, against gay rights, against gun control, very religious (Christian), and for cutting taxes...in a word CONSERVATIVE.
Hummm...doesn't sound like many national Democrats I know. In fact the guy who fits this pretty well just LOST as Governor of Mississippi by 8 pts!!!
So maybe what is needed is a new approach to the South. Maybe a national Democratic candidate should just flat out acknowledge that he and most white Southerners aren't going to agree on most social issues. But then he would then point out that those particular issues aren't the important ones in 2004....jobs, healthcare, education, trade, and other issues are. The candidate will also have to be seen as adequate on national security/defense which might mean supporting the Iraq War which is still somewhat popular in many Southern states.
Now the question is will this approach work? Will emphaszing the economic over the social allow the Democratic nominee to be not only competitive but also win in the South?
http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=750