State Electoral Trends: ID, UT, WY

Continuing the series of graphs showing state electoral trends since 1960, here are the next three up: Idaho, Utah and Wyoming.

The graphs show how much more or less Democratic each state voted as compared to the national average; thus a +5% means that in a 50/50 national tie, the Democrat would have received 55% in a 2-way race.

Previous graphs:
Alaska, Washington & Oregon
Hawaii, California, Nevada

Pics and comments below.

(note: I did not include 3rd pary candidates in the data, instead just taking the margin between Republican and Democrat in each case. Obviously that depresses the Dem score for 2000. At Winger's suggestion, I looked into allocating Nader's vote based on state-by-state exit polls, but in many cases the rounding made this impractical. So instead I simply add Nader's total vote and let you draw your own conclusions.)

Nader Vote:

ID: 2
UT: 5
WY: 2

Not a whole lot to say here about these decidedly un-swing states, but it's interesting to note the gradual Rep trend in the 60's & 70's, followed by a Dem trend in the 80's, and then a sharp right turn since Clinton.

I suppose the one thing you can say is that it can't get any worse. And given the constant flux of these things, could we be looking forward to a relative warming trend in these coldest of states?

•  All of the above

  except that W gets a clue.  That'll NEVER happen.

  by IhateBush on Tue Sep 28, 2004 at 06:13:56 PM PDT

•  Clinton was the best friend the GOP ever had.

  Anyway...what caused the big upward trend for Dems in '92 in WY and UT? Perot being on the ballot?

  According to people in Wyoming, far-right Republicans in the state legislature have been replaced by moderates (while moderates have not lost their primaries) for 2 elections now. And in Idaho, a few moderates lost primaries, but a few far-right nutjobs also lost their primaries. Maybe that's a sign of positive future trends.

  by JamesB3 on Tue Sep 28, 2004 at 06:16:50 PM PDT

  •  I think the Utah figure is a little off

    for 1992, since Perot actually finished in 2nd, just ahead of Clinton. So knock a couple points off there, but there's still a spike. I'd guess it was a combination of disgust with Bush I and/or Reaganomics and the Perot effect.

    by Seonachan on Tue Sep 28, 2004 at 06:34:32 PM PDT

•  When was the last time

  Idaho or Wyoming sent Democrats to Congress? I know a Democratic senator lost in 1980.

  by JamesB3 on Tue Sep 28, 2004 at 06:19:00 PM PDT

  •  Yes

    Frank Church, a strong dove and liberal on basically everything except abortion and gun control lost barely in 1980.  1974 was the last time Idaho elected a Democratic senator.  1992 was the last time they elected a Dem Congressperson, Larry LaRocco.  He lost in 1994.

    Wyoming is even worse, the last time they elected a Dem senator was Gale McGee in 1970, and he lost in 1976.  Teno Roncalio was elected in 1976, and retired in 1978, and replaced by Dick Cheney.  The Dems did come close to winning the Senate seat in 1988, losing by about 2000 votes.  
    There is an outside chance that the Dems may win the congressional seat this year there.

    by IhateBush on Tue Sep 28, 2004 at 06:28:08 PM PDT

  •  Idaho

    Lost it's last Dem Rep in 1994 (the campaign that made me say I'd never work on a campaign again). Larry LaRocco lost the 1st CD to Helen Salmon-aren't-endangered Chenoweth. Haven't had a Dem Senator since the late, and truly great, Frank Church lost in 1980 to Steve liked-to-show-up-on-the-Senate-floor-drunk Symms. There was a pretty damned good Rep. from the 2nd district, Richard Stallings, through the 80's. He lost a Senate bid to Dirk the Weasel Kempthorne in '92 (I think) and thus we lost his seat. I think that's a pretty fair wrap up of Idaho, though some of my dates might be fuzzy.

    by mcjoan on Tue Sep 28, 2004 at 06:29:02 PM PDT

    •  What are the Idaho reps like?

      I heard some people say they're OK. Butch Otter and -- who is the other one? I certainly agree with them on guns and the Patriot Act, but probably not much else. Is there any chance that Dems could take those seats when they retire? Idaho only has 2 House seats now, right? I wonder if they're one of those states that keeps losing population and losing seats, like Michigan and Ohio.

      Are there even any popular Democrats in Idaho??

      by JamesB3 on Tue Sep 28, 2004 at 06:39:08 PM PDT

      •  Otter and Simpson

        I actually haven't lived there in 10 years, so my current perceptions might not be too great. Hopefully Serephin will stop by. He could answer your questions better. I'll plug his blog in case you're interested: 43rd State Blues. Anyway, here's my take.

        Otter is really almost a libertarian--he voted against the Patriot Act. He's kind of a loose cannon, and a boozer. I don't know that much about Mike Simpson. He came on the scene sort of after my time. The Ds were totally levelled in '94. We won just one statewide office--auditor--and only that one because he'd held the position forever. I think we had fewer than a dozen returned to the legislature. It was incredibly grim. So the Ds have really had to rebuild from the ground up in the past 10 years. There are a few legislators that are stand-outs, but I don't know if there's anyone with a real state-wide appeal at the moment. The new mayor of Boise, however, Dave Beiter, is going to go places. He's great.

        by mcjoan on Tue Sep 28, 2004 at 06:52:22 PM PDT