There have been several good diaries on DailyKos about the 2006 races (See
this one, by MrLiberal), but let's not forget that Virginia and New Jersey will vote in 2005. I'm not qualified to talk about New Jersey politics, but I am active in Virginian politics, and will discuss the candidates here.
See below the fold for in-depth analysis of the various candidates.
For Governor, the race to succeed term-limited Governor Mark Warner(D), is fierce and is expected to go down to the wire. Lt. Governor Tim Kaine(D), who won election in something of an upset by a 50%-48% margin in 2001 appears to have the Democratic nomination locked up. Kaine has raised $3.2 million, and is still pulling cash in at a fast rate. However, in order to overcome VA's GOP lean, he will probably have to outspend Jerry Kilgore, the likely Republican nominee. The newspapers agree that Kaine "wiped the floor with Kilgore" and that the score is definitely "Kaine 1, Kilgore 0." Kaine's record on guns is not one that the NRA finds appealing, which may hurt him, but this NASCAR fan and fiscal conservative who refused taxpayer-funded travel may be able to win. Attorney General Jerry Kilgore(R) has raised $3.4 million and is fairly popular in certain circles, having won election in 2001 by a 60%-40% margin. His plan will clearly be to criticize Kaine as being too liberal, having once stated that Kaine is just "John Kerry with a Richmond address!" He will probably defeat Warrington Mayor George Fitch, who may gain the backing of the powerful Club for Growth. Fitch has not yet raised sufficient money to be required to file finance reports. Shirley Harvey of the Independent Green party is also running. An African-American, she may take away a few votes from Kaine, but she is not a top-notch contender.
Likely Scenario: Kaine vs. Kilgore. Kaine, for now, may have a slight advantage.
For Lt. Gov, the race for the Democratic nomination is expected to go down to the wire between Delegate Chap Petersen(D-Fairfax), who last won election with 60% of the vote, and Leslie Byrne(D), a former State Senator and Congresswoman. Petersen is the more charismatic, and moderate option, but Byrne has been hammering him for an anti-choice vote. Updated finance reports are not yet available for this race, but Petersen said at a campaign event that he has raised almost $250,000, and Byrne's website says she has almost $75,000. State Delegate Viola Baskerville, a liberal African-American who comes across very well in person, and State Senator Phil Puckett, a more conservative sort of Dem. Puckett's main issue is transportation, and Petersen is trotting out his wide range of legislative accomplishments. Neither Puckett nor Baskerville has been required to file reports yet. Disclaimer: I do web advertising for the Petersen campaign. My reporting may be slightly biased on the race, but I tried not to slant it too much.
On the Republican side, State Senator Bill Bolling(R) appears to be the frontrunner, taking 51% and 56% in two straw polls over his 3 rivals for the GOP nod. Taxes and fiscal responsibility will be his main platform, and he is picking up endorsements faster than any of the other GOPers. His only major stumble was when he put the union seal on some campaign materials, a move for which his rivals, especially Del. Joe May(R), hammered him for. He has raised $612,000. State Del. Joe May appears to also be a serious candidate, with $266,000. Jobs creation is the hallmark of his campaign, but it is not yet clear whether or not his support will grow outside of his home base. Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chair Sean Connaughton(R) has over half a million dollars, but his "moderate past" will haunt him as he moves sharply to the right. In a bizarre move, he claimed the endorsement of Santa Claus. Lawyer Gil Davis(R), who lost his last bid for statewide office, has raised $88,000 and is claiming to be the truest conservative in the field. Transportation consultant and independent candidate Mark Hopkins, who left the crowded Democratic field, is not expected to be a real factor in the general election.
Likely Scenario: Petersen vs. Bolling, too close to call.
For Attorney General, the Democratic nomination will probably go to State Senator Creigh Deeds(D), who has out raised State Senator John Edwards(D), (no relation to the former US Senator from North Carolina), by $179,000 to $5,000. Edwards ran in 2001 and lost the primary despite having the party's backing. This time around, insiders feel that Edwards is not campaigning hard enough, and appear to be breaking for Deeds. Edwards is running as the Education Candidate, an odd choice considering the office he is seeking. In the GOP race, Lawyer Steve Baril(R) and State Delegate Bob McDonnell are running neck-and-neck. However, McDonnell has raised $801,000 to Baril's $784,000, and has the support of powerful Congressman Tom Davis.
Likely Scenario: Deeds vs. Baril, advantage Baril, but not by much.
If this is well received, I may post more (hopefully shorter) articles about this as we draw closer to the election, if not, I'll just shut up.
Peace,
Sam