Here's an article that should generate discussion around here.
The research firms that designed the $10 million polling system used by news organizations during last year's presidential election have concluded that the system erroneously showed John Kerry to be leading the race not because of a technological breakdown but because of more human variables. These included the relative youth of the pollsters, who were more successful securing interviews with supporters of Mr. Kerry as they left polling places than with those of the actual winner, President Bush.
The findings by the two firms, Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International, were in a 77-page report released yesterday by the consortium of six news organizations - five television networks and The Associated Press - that had commissioned the new system.
The recommendations made by the research firms included the hiring of surveyors from a broader range of ages (half of those who worked on Election Day were 34 or younger) and doing a better job training those pollsters and working with individual communities to ensure that interviews could be conducted closer to voting sites.
There was, however, some technical problems it appears.
The system was not without its technical glitches on Election Day. For example, the research firms found that at least in the early afternoon, the system "overstated the proportion of women in the electorate," a problem apparently caused by a programming error.
In positing why the overstatements of Mr. Kerry's performance were so pronounced, the researchers said they were convinced that the technical foundation on which their work was based was sound.
Instead, the report concluded that at least some of the breakdown was rooted in the "interactions" between some pollsters and some voters. In general, the surveys appeared to overrepresent younger voters, who tended to vote for Mr. Kerry, and to underrepresent older voters, who tended to vote for Mr. Bush.
Now, I never followed the fraud issue as closely as some around here, so feel free to share your thoughts. I am, as they say, a blank slate.