With the 2006 Senate races already underway, it's now time for me to start ranking them. While the actual election is still 20 months away, candidates and parties alike are getting started at an even faster rate than in 2004. My goal is to cover these races as best I can, ranking them in order of competitiveness for each party (i.e. how likely to be a pickup) and giving analysis to each one. With that in mind, here's my first edition of the Senate races of 2006:
Current Balance: 55R, 44D, 1I
Seats up for election: 17 D, 15R, 1 I
(Democratic Races in Extended Entry)
Democratic Seats
1)Florida (Incumbent Senator Bill Nelson)- While the open seat in Minnesota would seem more open to a GOP takeover, since it's an open seat, I beg to differ with that assumption, for reasons I'll get to later. As a result, I'm pegging Nelson as our toughest seat to defend. Not only is that state chock-full of strong Republican candidates (not including Katherine Harris, btw), but the Florida Democrats are increasingly in disarray, due to the narrow loss of both Kerry and Betty Castor in 2004. While the Democrats will be gunning for the Governorship in 2006 (and they may very well win it, if things go their way for a change), the GOP will be gunning for the freshman Nelson.
It's not that Nelson has done anything wrong, mind you. He's been a decent, moderate Democrat, and has compiled a solid record on the issues that count. Nonetheless, the former astronaut will be facing a tough reentry in the US Senate, as he's been in the shadow of Bob Graham for the last four years and lacks strong favorable ratings (although they're not weak either). Nelson's off and running now, and is even attempting to win over rural (read "Dixiecrat") support by pushing for the NASCAR Hall of Fame to be in the Sunshine State. He'll need every vote he can get against the powerful GOP war machine.
The likeliest Republican candidate is, of course, Katherine Harris. But my feeling is that she won't be the nominee. For one thing, she's broke, according to the recent FEC filing reports. Harris faced a tough race against Democrat Jan Schneider in 2004, and while Harris won with 55%, she spent her entire cupboard to do it. Starting from financial scratch against a well-funded Nelson is not a good beginning, and my guess is that the GOP will try and keep Harris in the House. Who does that leave? Plenty of candidates, that's who. Four other GOP Congressmen are interested-Mark Foley of FL-16, Cliff Stearns of FL-6, Dave Weldon of FL-15 and Connie Mack, IV of FL-14 (he's the son of Nelson's predecessor). Not to mention that if Governor Jeb Bush rallies GOP support behind Lt. Governor Toni Jennings to succeed him, it could leave AG Charlie Crist and CFO Tom Gallagher with a run for Senate in their future. All six of these guys would be good candidates (although Crist and Foley's lifestyles have come under question by some conservative groups), and Nelson has every right to be concerned with so many available threats.
In short, Nelson is vulnerable. But he's far from doomed, as the Sunshine State remains politically open to both parties. And until the GOP gets its nominee, he'll have plenty of time to raise money and get his supporters ready for the fall of 2006, when the GOP nominee gets picked (the primary is in September). But for now, this race is a TOSSUP.
2)Minnesota (Open Seat, Senator Mark Dayton retiring)- If Mark Dayton had chose to run for reelection in 2006 instead of retiring, he'd be the numero uno Democrat being targeted in 2006. While leaving his seat open leaves problems for the Democrats, it is also causing headaches for the Republicans, with both parties facing crowded primaries. Minnesota did elect a GOP Senator in Norm Coleman in 2002, but this was largely due to the backlash over the funeral for Paul Wellstone that was spun as a campaign rally. In 2004 the Democrats returned to electoral popularity, flattening the GOP in the State House elections (gaining 13 seats!) and bucking the GOP national trend by giving its state to John Kerry by a bigger margin than in 2000 for Al Gore (51-47 vs. 48-46). In addition, while the state's rural regions are becoming more Republican, the suburbs are becoming more Democratic, and as a result the state is beginning, slowly, to move towards the Democrats. This should help the Democratic nominee greatly.
But who will run? For one thing, both sides will have primaries, as already Congressman Mark Kennedy (MN-6) is running against ex-Senator Rod Grams for the GOP side, and the DFL (The Democratic Farmer-Labor Party) has promised not to intervene in its primary. For the Democrats, the likeliest candidates to jump in (although none have yet, its clear that many will) are millionaire attorney Mike Ciresi, who narrowly lost the 2000 primary for Senate to Dayton and Hennepin (Minneapolis and St. Paul) County DA Amy Klouchobar. Ciresi is well-known for prosecuting big tobacco in the 1990's, and Klouchobar is a charismatic, competent and politically capable DA of the state's biggest county.
Other possibilities include State Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson (a popular, pro-life moderate who left the GOP back in 2000 to become a Democrat), State Senator and 2000 US Senate candidate Steve Kelley and possibly child safety advocate Patty Wetterling (we'll know what she'll do next Friday, whether it be a Senate, House or no run at all). Watch out for Golden Gophers (U of Minnesota) General Counsel Mark Rotenberg, too-he's a smart guy with plenty of ability who could end being the man who came from nowhere to win. Congresswoman Betty McCollum is considering a bid, but is unlikely to run in my opinion. For the GOP, look for Congressman Gil Gutknecht to possibly run, especially if Kennedy refuses to change his position on prescription drug coverage (Gutknecht supports getting help from Canada, Kennedy doesn't). Finally, look for Jesse Ventura's old Independence Party to run a candidate, possibly former US Senator Dean Barkley (who served between the late Paul Wellstone and Coleman).
Irregardless of whom ends up being the nominee, look for a tight, competitive race to come. With Governor Tim Pawlenty likely to face a stiff challenge from Attorney General Mike Hatch, and with Kennedy's house seat (and possibly Gutknecht's) being a tossup, Minnesota will be worth watching in 2006. TOSSUP
3)Washington State (Incumbent Democrat Maria Cantwell) - You may be surprised to see the Evergreen State this high on my list. But it's based on the same idea as Bill Nelson- Maria Cantwell hasn't done anything wrong, per say, but she's largely unknown and could face a stiff GOP challenge- and I'm not talking about Dino Rossi either. Rather, ex-Congressman Rick White, who beat Cantwell back in 1994 for her House seat, is considering a bid, and White, along with ex-Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn is considered a credible candidate. He's also personally wealthy as a technology executive, giving him some financial help against Cantwell. Cantwell's in financial difficulty herself, having lost all of her personal wealth in the Technology Bust of 2001. She still has over $2 million in loans to her campaign, in fact, that she can't repay. Still, she's off and running- and being that this is Washington State will not go down easily. Look for White or Dunn to run, and for this race to surprise many with its closeness. However, the state's Democratic lean helps Cantwell greatly, for now. LEANS DEMOCRATIC
4)Nebraska (Incumbent Democrat Ben Nelson)- Surprisingly enough, considering Nebraska's heavily Republican bent, it appears as if Democrat Ben Nelson is getting this year's "bullet-dodger" award. Nelson, a centrist Democrat (although far from being a Zell Miller-read his interview in NY Magazine) was supposed to face popular Governor Mike Johanns in a major battle in 2006, but Johanns wound up as President Bush's Agriculture Secretary. Then beloved Congressman and ex-Cornhuskers Coach Tom Osbourne thought about running, but decided not to (he's still considering a bid for Governor). Finally, both Attorney General Jon Bruning and Congressman Lee Terry declined as well. That leaves a bunch of B-tier Republicans as possible challengers, and a primary for the GOP looks likely.
As of this moment, the GOP has two candidates considering bids- State GOP Chair David Kramer and 2000 nominee Don Stenberg (who lost narrowly to Nelson). Neither one is a strong candidate, especially Stenberg, who could have easily beaten Nelson on Bush's 2000 coattails, but failed. State Senator Kermit Brashear, ex-Lt. Governor Dave Maurstad and RNC Committeeman Kerry Winterer are also potential candidates, although none of them have made any overt signs of contemplation. For now, Nelson's in good shape. But this being Nebraska, look for the GOP to try their best to take him out anyway. LEANS DEMOCRATIC
5)Michigan (Incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow)- The GOP bodies are piling up here as Senator Stabenow's chances of winning reelection look better every day. First, popular Congresswoman Candice Miller declined to run, followed by Congressman Mike Rogers and the rest of the delegation. Then, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard jumped in, only to get out a few days ago due to family concerns. With him went Oakland DA Dave Gorcyca, who declined to run on the same day. As a result, only two Republicans are in the running-one is frequent candidate Bart Baron, the other a Christian conservative minister named Keith Butler. Consider Butler to be the Alan Keyes of Michigan- a black man with strong conservative viewpoints and a tendency to insert foot into mouth. The GOP is looking for stronger candidates, obviously, and some possibilities include Jane Abraham (the wife of Stabenow's predecessor, Spence), ex-Congressman Nick Smith and millionaire developer Peter Cummings. For now, Stabenow looks to be in very good shape-her approval rating was 56% according to an independent poll from last month. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
6)New Jersey (Potential (Likely) Open Seat, Democrat Jon Corzine)- With Senator Corzine on his way to Drumthwacket (that's the Governor's house in New Jersey, fyi) , his seat will be filled in 2007. But will it be same person who fills it in 2006? Corzine, as the likely next Governor would appoint his successor, and he has a choice between an aspiring Congressman (there are four interested) and a caretaker. If he appoints a caretaker, he would leave an open primary for three of the four Congressmen to run in, which might or might not be a good thing for NJ Democrats (we haven't had a primary battle since 2000). Assuming he chooses a caretaker (my likeliest pick for that option would be ex-Governor Brendan Byrne), let's take a look at the Senatorial candidates for the Democrats in 2006:
The first is Congressman Bob Menendez. The 7-term Hudson County Democrat has passed over Senate runs two times before-once in 2000, once for replacing Bob Torricelli on the 2002 ballot. Now he wants in the Senate badly, and rumor has it that he has a deal with Corzine to get appointed. Assuming Corzine's playing fair, however, Menendez still starts off with an edge-he's got a boatload of campaign funds and he hails from New Jersey's richest Democratic area. However, he'd have to deal with two other Congressmen with eyes on the prize. The first of them is Congressman Frank Pallone, of Middlesex County. Pallone is a progressive who backed Howard Dean in 2004, and as a result has strong support amongst the activists in the central part of the state. He's even formed a campaign website for the Senate race, as proof of what he's gunning for. The third Congressman is Rob Andrews, of NJ-1 (Camden County and others in South Jersey), who narrowly lost a bid for Governor in 1997 to a little-known State Senator named Jim McGreevey in the Democratic Primary. Andrews, another reform-minded Democrat may also have a deal with Corzine, as his support for the Senator in late January basically forced Governor Dick Codey's hand into withdrawal. Until his backing of Corzine, Andrews was aiming for Governor again.
For the Republicans, a primary is almost certain. The national Republicans would love for State Senator Tom Kean, Jr. to be the nominee, and for good reason. Kean's father is a beloved former Governor here, and won praise for his efforts on the 911 Commission. Kean, Jr. is my State Senator, and I can tell you firsthand that the son is just as capable as the father. If he's the nominee, New Jersey will be competitive. But Kean is far from certain to be the GOP nominee. Another candidate in the running is Congressman Mike Ferguson, my unfortunate excuse for a representative. Ferguson is popular with NJ Republicans, and is personally wealthy, thanks to his billionaire CEO father. He's also pro-life and a doctrinaire Republican on several issues, making him far more conservative than Kean (who in, say, neighboring PA would be a Democrat). Ferguson is interested in running as well, and the fact that the two men hate each other (long story) won't help matters. Other potential GOP candidates could include whoever doesn't get clobbered by Corzine in 2005 (are you reading this, Doug Forrester?) and State Senator Bill Gormley.
Until Corzine is elected (as he almost certainly will be) in November, the Democrats won't have a nominee. But due to the state's Democratic edge, and the relatively pathetic state of the NJ GOP, the NRSC will need to invest heavily here to win. I don't think they will, preferring juicier targets like Minnesota and Florida, and so the Democratic nominee (whoever it ends up being) will have the edge. So, for now, LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
Other seats to watch out for are North Dakota (where Senator Kent Conrad may face a stiff fight from Governor John Hoeven, but only from Hoeven) ,Maryland (where Senator Paul Sarbanes may retire) and Wisconsin (where Senator Herb Kohl would be in trouble against Tommy Thompson, the beloved former Governor, but not against anyone else). Robert Byrd is running for reelection in West Virginia, as is Dan Akaka in Hawaii and Jeff Bingaman in New Mexico. Should anything change with those races, I'll let you all know. For now, relax (as much as possible) and enjoy the spectacle at this early point in the race!
Coming Soon: The Special Election in IL-6- A Changing of the Guard