The Senate recessed today at 1:26 p.m., after approving the budget; invoking cloture on the nomination of Bush's appointee to head the Environmental Protection Agency, Stephen Johnson; and then approving him by a voice vote. Johnson advocates the testing of pesticides on small children, but that's another story.
The real story, of course, is that Kittykiller Frist failed to pull the trigger on the nuclear option prior to the Senate's weeklong recess (they're back on May 9, which actually means May 10, because Congress really only works three days a week). He had earlier promised to do so.
Janice Rogers Brown and Priscilla Owen got passed out of the Judiciary Committee last week, but the Committee yesterday postponed its scheduled vote on William Pryor. I have been unable to ascertain whether they also postponed their scheduled votes on Brett Kavanaugh and Terrence Boyle, although I suspect that they did so, because we would have heard something about it otherwise.
Frist clearly had the votes to get Pryor, Boyle, and Kavanaugh out of the Judiciary Committee, since Owen and Brown were confirmed on straight party line votes earlier in the week, but he failed to do so. What does all of this mean? There are several possibilities, but one stands out.
Specter.
Let me start out by saying I don't have any inside information on this one. So it's all sheer speculation, albeit by an educated observer. My speculation is that Arlen Specter is holding out. As has been discussed before, he's the swing vote. Remember that we need 51 because of Cheney. 44 Democrats plus Jeffords is 45. Chafee and McCain are on record opposing the nuclear option. Snowe will doubtless join them. Collins is a probable. That's 49. The wild cards are Warner, Hagel, and Specter.
I'm betting that Frist knows he's lost one of Warner and Hagel (probably Hagel) and that Specter, true to form, is holding out for a deal. Specter, it must be remembered, is also chair of the Judiciary Committee. He's publicly uncommitted, and he has said quite forthrightly that he'd like to see some kind of negotiated agreement. He's probably told Frist that unless further attempts are made to reach a negotiated solution, he will vote against the nuclear option.
The key question, of course, that this begs is has he said that if attempts are made and fail that he will vote for the nuclear option? Remember that Specter was just reelected, so he's not up again until 2010, and he's in poor health (Hodgkins Disease). So he's probably not too worried about his political future in moderate Pennsylvania (Santorum, who is, recently urged caution in exercising the nuclear option).
Specter, therefore, is a political wildcard here and appears to be the key to this entire equation.
Frist wants to go nuclear. His base is pushing him hard to do it. He'd promised to do it before the recess that started about an hour ago. He didn't. It means he's not sure he can get it through. The Judiciary Committee gave him the excuse to bring back to his base that all of the judges weren't out of Committee yet. The committee recessed yesterday because of "time constraints," the ultimate lame-o excuse.
What do the rest of you see in the tea leaves here?