In a continuation of my focus on the Virginia primaries leading up to voting day of June 14th (because I know y'all want to take Tuesday morning off to prove your party cred.), I have decided to give a brief overview of what's going on on the otherside of the aisle.
Republicans are such a staple of political life in my beloved commonwealth that the real question of political merit on most lips is not "Are you a Republican?" but rather "What kind of Republican are you?" This has led to a rather nasty sense of entitlement from the party elders, who believe that they rather own the statehouse, and that Mark Warner and those naughty little Democrats stole it from them. Since then, it would be fair to say the entire party has been in one drawn out collective temper tantrum, of which Democrats are hoping to reap the benefits.
Atty. Gen. Jerry Kilgore has been given the nod by the party heavyweights for the Gov. mansion. Now, the more people find out about Kilgore, the less they like him. He's not a terribly good public speaker. He first attacked Warner and tied Kaine under the same banner, but then, when he realized that Warner is extraordinarily popular and anything that links Kaine with Warner is a good thing, changed his mind and decided that he was more like Mark Warner than Kaine was.
This campaign is nasty. I mean, really nasty. The ads have been flying. The latest hot manipulated ad is this one, discredited with honors by WaPo is that Kaine wanted to sue gun manufacturer Smith and Wesson. I can't explain the error better than the Post, so to sum up:
Let's peel back the onion a bit. Kilgore spokesman Tim Murtaugh says that the campaign is basing its assertion on a March 14, 1999, Richmond Times-Dispatch article that said in part: "The Richmond City Council has asked the city attorney's office for a report on the feasibility of such a suit ... However, [Kaine] and other city officials believe it would be difficult to sue gun manufacturers here."
At the time, Kaine was the mayor of Richmond.
Murtaugh said that shows Kaine had the intent, and therefore must have wanted to sue the companies like Smith and Wesson over the use of their products, which is a big no-no for anyone who's a supporter of gun rights.
"That says it right there," Murtaugh said. "He asked for a legal opinion to whether or not it was possible." So the Kilgore campaign is not basing its radio ad on a Kaine vote or a affirmative statement? Well, no.
"If the city attorney had come forward and said `Yeah, we think we can do it,' they would have done it," Murtaugh said. How does he know?
"He probably didn't get the answer he wanted," Murtaugh said. "But that doesn't mean he didn't want to do it."
So there's the guy to beat.....yet he has a primary. His opponent is, well, listen, Fitch has no chance of winning. He's the mayor of Warrenton, and running as anti-establishment and anti-tax. According to him, Republicans have not been doing enough to curb taxation and cut programs. Why! They still provide services like a solid University system! What a waste! Even when our roads are packed thick! (How Richmond is supposed to pay for roads while cutting spending is beyond me). His civic experience lists his being mayor of Warrenton first, and his church membership second.....as the conservative's conservative, consider him the Howard Dean of Virginia's Republican party, that is, if Howard Dean had never raised any money. Kilgore has largely ignored his existence.
That brings us to Lt. Gov, where the main debate is over who would compliment Kilgore more. Do we go for the Northern Virginian that won't sign Grover Norquist's no tax pledge? Connaughton has done a fair job running Prince William. Plus, when factored with the Republican AG spot, that gives Republicans a Southwest, central boy (Kilgore), a Virginia Beach/Hampton area (McDonnell), and a Northern Virginian (though not from Fairfax County). Very effective for them.....but Connaughton's a bit more moderate than his conservative rival, Bolling. Bolling's base is Hanover, very near Kaine's Richmond base. Bolling voted against Warner's tax increase, and is, in general, a more solid choice from a party loyalty standpoint. Boling is a perfect little Kilgore, Jr. who was an Erlich, Jr. who was a Gilmore, Jr., etc. They're running really close, so nobody really knows how it will turn out.
For Democrats, this would be the ideal result on Tuesday:
Gov-Fitch
Lt. Gov- Bolling
AG-McDonnell
This is what I predict will happen:
Gov-Kilgore
Lt. Gov-Connaughton
AG-McDonnell
I could be wrong on the Lt. Gov. All in all its a pretty formidable ticket, but like most VA races, depends largely on how much filth Kilgore repeats and how much Mark Warner will count.
Remember, Warner is polling at 70% in Danville.