Alright, here is one final push towards being a civic patriot and voting in the Virginia primary coming up
tomorrow.
First, here's a new(est I could find) poll showing Kaine trailing Kilgore by a mere four points to indicate the closeness of the general, and subsequent importance of the primary.
Poll Summation:
Analysis: In a hypothetical election for Governor of Virginia today, Republican Jerry Kilgore has the slightest edge over Democrat Tim Kaine, 44% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 575 Registered Voters statewide conducted for WSLS-TV in Roanoke. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 10 weeks ago, Kilgore is down 2%, from 46% then to 44% now. Kaine is up 4%, from 36% then to now 40%. Independent Russ Potts is in single digits in both polls.
More of the flipside:
General Election is in November. Kilgore leads by 16 among white Virginians. Kaine leads by 44 points among black Virginians. Kilgore leads by 15 points among males. Kaine leads by 5 points among females, a 20 point gender gap. This poll consists of 38% self-identified Republicans and 37% self-identified Democrats. 80% of Republicans vote Republican. 77% of Democrats vote Democrat. * Filtering: 700 adults were interviewed by telephone 5/15 - 5/16. Of them, 575 identified themselves as registered Virginia voters and were included in the survey. Graphs reflect registered voters.
So far, there has not been the same extensive polling as there has been in New Jersey, probably because they had a catfight of a Republican primary, but hopefully once it becomes clear Corzine is going to win, interest and polling dollars will return to the Old Dominion and we'll be able to post more polls than I can handle.
Reading into the closeness of the gubernatorial election, its imperative that we select the right candidate for the Lt. Governor slot. I believe Chap Petersen is the right person for this job. (For more detailed analysis of the candidates, check out my previous posts on the matter). My reasoning is as follows:
First and foremost, Chap can win. I know "electability" is not fashionable these days and is seen as Kerry's bane (although I disagree with this), but screw the rhetoric and take an actual look at the matter. A candidate should appeal to the majority of the voters in a state. Even if I, the individual, am more liberal than Chap is, frankly, I am more liberal than the commonwealth as a whole is. My beliefs do not accurately reflect the middle of the road in this state. Chap's do. I know that its a liberal sin to call oneself a pragmatist, but I am. I think leaders who come from the center are the best at effectively serving the needs of the electorate and getting stuff done.
Secondly, doggoneit, I like Chap's campaigning. I think he's done an excellent job raising money and being, yes, I'll say it, a good ole boy. But anyone who lacks proper appreciation for that term, in my book, should not get involved in Virginia politics, because Richmond will be a shock for you. In any case, NOVA sneers aside, the rural voters of this state are important and deserve attention and respect. In my view, with the exception of Puckett, only Chap has really reached out to the rural counties and tried to bridge the famous disconnect between Northern Virginia and the rest of the state. Good for him. That's what wins elections.
Third, and this relates to the poll, Kaine needs Petersen on the ticket. Nobody has shown the same fundraising ability and would likely require much more significant help from the state party, thus draining funds from Kaine. Petersen also appeals the Northern Virginia vote, which is vital to a Kaine success and for making up those 4 points. Moreover, with Byrne or Baskerville on the ticket, issues are going to be forced on Kaine that we don't want forced on him. We don't want Kaine to have to distance his beliefs from his own Lt. Gov candidate. We do not want progress Kaine has made to be hindered by a number two's outspoken liberalism. Its an uphill battle, why make the mountain higher?
I know many have argued that the Lt. Gov wins on their own merits and this is true, but the issues that are brought up in the Lt. Gov race are not entirely separate from the Gov's race, and certainly running two strong candidates is better than one strong, one weak. Frankly, I think this argument acknowledges that a progressive candidate isn't going to win, and that votes for it are mostly based on not wanting to sacrifice principle for practicality.
Point Four: Chap is not so evil pro-life and anti-gay rights as many have painted him to be. In 2003 he was endorsed by the Virginia Partisans Gay and Lesbians Democratic Club. Yes, Chap did vote for the 2004 bill, a bill bound to pass by a landslide, by the by. What Chap did, as far as I can see, was go along with Mark Warner and essentially say, you have my support, with the caveat of an amendment that ensures the contractual rights of gays and lesbians. In Virginia, this sort of compromise is the best you're going to get passed, and in my view, it is much better to be able to say I compromised and therefore got something when I could've stood up for high principles and in return gotten nothing.
On the same note, I think he has been written off too early by the pro-choice vote. I think there is a definite difference between supporting consent for minors and being anti-choice. Name me a surgery that a minor can have without telling her parents other than abortion. Hell, schools need to ask permission to give kids aspirin. Why does abortion get the exemption? Morally, I see it, but legally, it makes no sense. Likewise, I think opposing Laci's law backs you into an untenable corner. You're forced to defend why you are against punishing violent and especially heinous crime. Its like late-term abortions. They never happen. But Republicans love having Democrats on record coming out against restricting them. Its a stupid fight, and frankly I think it was shrewd of him not to be drawn into the debate.
Well, discuss. I'm sure there will be many of you who violently disagree. And I assure you, I will try not to make a habit of advocating for my guy. I just want to stress that Chap is the best choice for Tim Kaine, and that is our priority right now.