Partisan primary voters are strategic thinkers. Primary elections are not isolated events; rather, votes must be cast with one eye on the national politicalscape, another eye on the potential opponent, and whatever else is left on the candidate him/herself. All these dimensions are examined in order to enable a voter's party to receive the best chance of winning the national election in November. Therefore, for partisan voters, the most important attribute of a candidate is electability.
That having been said, Democrats would not nominate Zell Miller, even if he held a better chance of winning the South than John Kerry. Primaries are a game of tug-of-war. After our partisan sentiments have fought it out with our desire for victory, it boils down to this problem, which I call the Primary Conundrum: we must nominate the best candidate who can be elected. We mustn't nominate the Dennis Kuciniches and Ted Kennedies of the nation, even though many Democrats love them. They are simply not electable. On the flipside, we must nominate candidates who would hold true to Democratic principles, rather than compromising for the Joe Lieberman/Ben Nelson candidate. We must find the right balance of this dichotomy in 2008. The current thinking is that the follow pool of candidates will run in '08:
Hillary Clinton
John Kerry
John Edwards
Joseph Biden
Wesley Clark
Evan Bayh
Mark Warner
Bill Richardson
Phil Bredesen
Russell Feingold
Tom Vilsack
While Clinton, Kerry, Edwards, and Clark all ran in 2004 and are quite familiar (as are Feingold and Biden to a lesser extent), the remaining potential candidates are relatively unknown. In the hopes of converging on the candidate who best overcomes the Primary Conundrum, I will profile the lesser-known candidates and provide analysis of the rest of the field. Particular focus will be given to the Primary Conundrum, how candidates will fulfill it, and what strategy Democrats must employ in order to achieve victory in 2008. One of these candidates will prevail, and it is up to us to decide whom that should be. Who do you think will become our torchbearer?
Next post: Profile of Virginia Governor Mark Warner