"Let us say, and why not" (with props to Rude Pundit because I love when he begins entries with those words) that Bush's press conference on Tuesday is to announce the capture of Osama bin Laden. I got to pondering the potential effects of this after reading a friend's online journal in which she speculated
Do you think they have him?
To announce on Friday that they're doing this on Tuesday - at a base where the soldiers are deployed to Afghanistan - and they've been saying for almost a week that they know where he is...
It would be a shot of good news.
Please read on.
I'm repeating here essentially what I told her. First of all, kudos if it's true! I'd have a bit of difficulty, however, believing our government could keep a secret that long, not to mention the U.S. and international news media. I checked for recent rumors on the internets about him being captured and there's nothing past late 2004, which no doubt most of us have read. Al-jazeera in particular makes no mention of it, and if any news source had obtained even remotely plausible information, it would most likely be them and I'm pretty sure they'd report on it. But Porter Goss's "I have an excellent idea of where he is" pronouncement of last week almost gives the impression of a setup with the proverbial punchline to be delivered a short time later. Then again, this could just be the product of my occasionally conspiratorial thought processes.
In the unlikely (IMO) event that Bush does make such an announcement on Tuesday, it sure couldn't come at a better time for his sagging poll numbers. Not that I'm particularly concerned about them; on the contrary, I'm cautiously relieved that Americans are finally starting to lose their misplaced, and often delusional, confidence in this Administration. At any rate, I'd expect only a brief upturn before resumption of the downward trend, since they've mostly been falling due to issues unrelated to bin Laden (e.g. Iraq, Gitmo torture, Terri Schiavo, Social Security reform, gas prices, huge job layoffs); none of those are going away if he's captured. And being ever the pessimist, I reluctantly admit to having more than a passing concern that his imprisonment or death will spark a substantial wave of terrorist attacks against the U.S. and its allies. Or, make that the "last throes" if you happen to be Dick Cheney, and I hope none of you are. ;-)
Of course, think how much sooner we might have caught him if we'd focused our energies, resources, and goodwill of our international friends solely on that goal instead of the fraudulent Iraq invasion. But I digress.
Thus ends my initial impression of my friend's speculative query. But as I've thought about it more, I wonder: if Bush's poll numbers were to bounce back, would they in fact drop again? They certainly should, but I'm preaching to the choir in this respect, since we all know Iraq had nothing to do with bin Laden and the 9/11 attacks and therefore the President's popularity (or current lack thereof) shouldn't be affected by it. But sadly, the opinions of Kossacks aren't reflected in a large portion of the American people. What has led many Americans to lose confidence lately is the Administration's string of failures relating not to bin Laden at all but rather to those things previously mentioned. The point I'm not very eloquently making is that while bin Laden's capture would no doubt be most welcome to the vast majority of those of us residing in the reality-based community, we'd still understand it's only a tiny bright spot among numerous other, very serious problems that remain. But would the people responding to all those polls see it differently, as a smashing success and significant milestone in the war on terror, and would it suddenly restore their confidence in Bush for no other reason than that he finally did something right?
Furthermore, I doubt bin Laden's elimination would, in the long run, adversely affect the Al Qaeda network in any significant manner. Well-organized groups with a passion and a purpose generally don't fade away when their leader is removed, just as the assassination of Martin Luther King didn't derail the civil rights movement. Some would even say it strengthened the resolve and commitment of those who remained. Besides, the Bush Administration will almost certainly continue to provide ample reason for the U.S. to be despised by many outside her borders. Any gain that might result from bin Laden's displacement would, in all likelihood, be wiped out by continued Al Qaeda attacks.
So, hopefully I'll get a few comments on my speculative theory, because it would interest me to know what others think might happen in the as-yet purely hypothetical event of bin Laden's capture.