In the wake of Paul Hackett's amazing showing, there is the beginning of a sense that 2006 may shape up as our 1994. One way to look at the OH-02 special is to compare the results with the Cook Report's Partisan Vote Index or with past presidential results--those being the best evidence for what a "generic" race in that district (unnamed Dem vs. unnamed Rep. with no political wind) would produce. Using either comparison produces a Dem vote percentage in Ohio 02 of between 35 and 37 percent. Hackett's 48 therefore is a gain of 11-13 points and could potentially be attributable to some combination ofthree things: differences in candidate quality, Ohio GOP problems, and national GOP problems. While it is true that Paul Hackett was a near-perfect candidate for us in that district and Schmidt was a lousy one for the GOP, I can't help but think that there is a decent amount of anti-GOP feeling contributing. This is exactly what can cause a wave election.
A few weeks ago, I posted a diary listing the 25 most Democratic districts held by GOPers (some very well entrenched), positing that these are the districts where we score upsets in a wave. I now post my 16-month out look at all of the possible pickups (including both these type of seats and others that can be competitive based on candidates or other unique factors) that could be on the radar based on district makeup, weak incumbents, no incumbents, or other factors. I sort them by region.
Northeast (24):
The northeast should be our 1994 South. GOPers have so far strayed from the principles people in this region supported them. The time is ripe for a wholesale switchover.
CT-02, 04, and 05. All are generally Dem seats. Simmons (02) is a perennial target and Shays (04) has a tough rematch brewing in a district that has shifted on him. Johnson (05) is the toughest of the three, but beatable.
DE-AL. Castle is a popular institution in an incumbent-friendly state, but both Gore and Kerry won the state by double digits. If we can do some damage with 1994-like morphing commercials featuring Bush, Rove, or DeLay, I have to think that Delaware is one place.
NH-01 and 02. These are both swing districts in a swing state that is trending Dem (only state to flip from Bush in 2000 to Kerry in '04. Both Bradley (01) and Bass (02) have seen tough challenges. Bradley, in particular has never run in a non-GOP-friendly year ('02 & '04). Bass's district is more Dem and he almost got sent home in '96.
NJ-02, 03, 04, and 07. See Delaware analysis. LoBiondo (02) and Smith (04) have not had tough challenges lately; Saxton (03) was targeted in 2000 and came through; and Ferguson (07) has had a series of tough races. All four of those districts are net Dem. We need challengers.
NY-03, 13, 19, 23, 24, 25, and 29. More Dem leaning districts (3, 13, and 25) or true swingers (19, 23, and 24) held by GOPers. King (03) is the last man standing of the once all-powerful Long Island GOP machine. His stupid statement that Joe Wilson should be shot should provide some fodder for a challenge. Fossella (13) represents Staten Island and Kelly (19) represents Westchester county, traditionally GOP strongholds not in line with today's Republican party. You know, kinda like the South circa 1994. The other 3 (McHugh, Boehlert, and Walsh) represent upstate districts swinging Dem, especially with their economic woes. The 29th is a more GOP seat held by a freshman GOPer whose name escapes me and who we almost beat in the 2004 open seat race.
PA-03, 04, 06, 07, 08, 15, and 18. The PA GOP got cute in its gerrymandering efforts and left a lot of reps in swing districts. Gerlach (06), Fitzpatrick (08) and Murphy (18) are already high profile targets. Hart (04) and Dent (15) are also relatively new congresspersons who can be beaten by the right candidate. Same goes for longtimers English (03) and Weldon (07). Weldon's district in the Philly suburbs is trending Dem.
South (13):
The region that is the current GOP's base, so presumably the least likely to buy into the anti-GOP wave, but there are some opportunities:
AL-03. Rep. Rogers holds a swing district that he narrowly won in 2002. He had a less serious challenger last time. He has never had to run in a neutral or anti-GOP year.
FL-10, 13, 16, and 22. Still the best Dem state in the South, Florida offers several pickup opportunities despite the heavily GOP gerrymandered map. The 13th is the open seat Katherine Harris is vacating to run for Senate. We contested it and kept it close in both her elections. Shaw (22) is a perennial target who may finally be at the end of his run (like Brian Bilbray (CA-49) in 2000), especially w/ the Bush Social Security "plan". Foley (16) and Young (10) have not been targeted, but both hold fairly Dem-friendly seats--especially Young.
LA-07. Boustany is a freshman who narrowly won a traditionally Dem seat in 2004. The previous Dem Rep. Chris John (who left to run for Senate) may run.
KY-03. Northup has been near the top of Dem taget lists since she ousted Mike Ward from this heavily Dem Louisville-based district in 1996. Again, this may be the year.
NC-08 and 11. Both Hayes (08) and Taylor (11) have been Dem targets over the last 10 years. Hayes' district is more Dem; Taylor is scandal-plagued and has a celebrity opponent in former quarterback Heath Shuler.
TX-22. The big one. DeLay left himself in a less GOP-friendly district than he had after his remap. With indictments on the way and an ex-Congressman as an opponent, the Hammer may finally have smashed his own thumb.
WV-02. This may be an open seat if Capito challenges Sen. Byrd. This is a traditionally Dem seat that we have challenged since Capito won it in 2000.
VA-10 and 11. Northern Virginia is trending Dem as fast as anywhere in the country. Neither Wolf (10) or Davis (11) has seen anything approaching a real challenge lately and this could be the year to give them a run. Davis' district is much more winnable.
The Midwest (27):
Another region with a lot of opportunities (especially given the state of the GOP in Ohio and Illinois.
IA-01, 02 and 04. The 1st District is open and already a national battleground race. It is a lean-Dem district, as is Leach's 2d. He has had some tough races. Can a guy who is in a 55% Dem district and is a crappy fundraiser survive a wave? We'll see. Latham (04) is in a bit better shape, but still sits in a swing district and can not even claim maverick status like Leach.
IL-06, 10 and 11. The Chicago suburbs are making the transition from GOP to Dem. The 6th is the most GOP of these seats, but it is open and is already a watched race. The 10th (my old home district) and 11th are true swing seats trending Dem. Kirk (10) hasn't seen a real challenge since his first win in 2000 but may see one this time; Weller (11) has close races on and off, and should be beatable this year.
IN-02, 08 and 09. Hostettler (08) has made a career out of frustrating Dems (see Northup). He is always a top target and will be again. Sodrel (09) narrowly ousted Dem incumbent Baron Hill in '04, and Hill is back for a rematch. Will be a top race. As for Chocola (02), ha has been a target both his wins and scored less than impressive victory margins in good GOP years.
MI-07, 08, 09, 10, and 11. Michigan is another state in which the GOP may have gotten too cute with gerrymandering. Each of these seats (with the exception of the 10th) is barely net GOP. Schwarz (07) is a freshman who won in 2004 with little opposition. Rogers (08) has been a past target who got to take it easy in '02 and '04. McCotter (11) won a seat he helped draw for himself in '02. He has never seen a strong opponent. Nor has Knollenberg (08), a longtime rep. I threw in Miller's 10th because it may be an open seat if she runs for Gov.
MN-01, 02, 03 and 06. None of the GOP seats in Minnesota should be safe. The 2d (Kline) and 6th (now open b/c Kennedy is running for gov) have gotten most of the recent attention and should be close again. Gutknecht (01) and Ramstad (03) are longtimers who hold pink districts and who could be vulnerable to a strong challenge.
OH-01, 02, 03, 12, 14, 15, 16 and 18. We just saw evidence of how screwed the Ohio GOP is. Cook actually said on the Franken show that he counts 8 GOP seats potentially in play. I wonder if our lists match? Chabot (01), Turner (03), and Tiberi (12) have seen tough races in the past few years, and with good reason. Those three districts are the best pickup bets. I return Schmidt (02) to the list in case there is a rematch, but even then, this special had a "perfect storm" feeling; it'd be hard to top. LaTourette (14) and Ney (18) are class of 1994 members who have seen little strong opposition since 1996. Let's see how they do with the wave going the other way. Ditto for Pryce (15) (suburban Columbus) and Regula (16) (Canton).
WI-01 and 08. The open Green Bay based 8th district is already being eyed by both national parties. I include Tim Ryan (01) because the Kenosha based 1st district is a traditionally Dem seat that the GOPers have held since 1994. A good candidate and a wave, who knows?
The West (12):
Fairly slim pickings based on the fact that California has the incumbent-protection map and we have most of what we should have elsewhere already.
AZ-01 and 08. Renzi (01) has been a target in a swing district since he first ran in '02. This one will be contested, and we'll see how he does in a Dem year. Kolbe (08) represents a swing district that is trending Dem. He has not been a target, but is vulnerable--especially since he's had some dustups with his own party.
CA-11, 26, 45, 48 and 50. None of these are really Dem districts, but Pombo (11) represents a district trending Dem and Bono (45) represents a district that's at least swingy. Dreier (26) was held under 55% by a no-namer in '04. None have been seriously opposed lately. The 48th is a special election to replace Chris Cox in a GOP district (albeit not one as GOP as Ohio 2). A win there would be a big upset and a very good sign going forward. The 50th district likewise is a strongly GOP district, but the Cunningham scandals have put it potentially in play.
CO-04, 06 and 07. Musgrave (04) and Tancredo (06) both represent solidly GOP districts, but both are on-issue nuts that don't serve their constituents, and as such both underperform at the polls. Tancredo may not be on the ballot (b/c of his quixotic presidential bid). If not, this race actually would become harder. As for the open swing 7th, it will be among the most watched and hardest fought in the nation.
NM-01. Heather Wilson has found ways to narrowly survive (often with Green party help) to this point. She will be a target again.
WA-08. Reichert narrowly won this Dem-trending open seat in 2004. He should be strongly challenged.