From
OurSenate:
Here we are again, at our beginning-of-the-month election 2006 update. And as always, we'll start with the first 11 Senate races: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Indiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Michigan.
Arizona - Likely Republican
Incumbent: Jon Kyl (R) - elected in 1994
The chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party, Jim Pederson, resigned in late July, making it look very likely he will be challenging Kyl in 2006. As I've said before, Pederson is extremely wealthy and that alone gives him a better shot at this seat than most in the Grand Canyon State. And with Democratic Gov. Napolitano a likely bet for reelection, Democrats can put their focus on defeating this fairly low-profile, rubber stamp Senator.
The other 10 below the fold...
California -
Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Dianne Feinstein (D) - elected in 1992 special election
Nothing new here. California Republicans will be scrambling to protect unpopular Gov. Schwarzenegger and will likely have no energy left to go after the well-liked and moderate senior Senator.
Connecticut - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Joe Lieberman (D) - elected in 1988
Lieberman has a primary challenger, John Orman, and has upset some Democrats because of his fondness for President Bush's foreign policy, but he remains popular at home and will be massively more funded than Orman.
Delaware - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Tom Carper (D) - elected in 2000
This race is a foregone conclusion. Most people forget to even mention Delaware when talking about the 2006 Senate races.
Florida - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Bill Nelson (D) - elected in 2000
Important Republicans (including the White House) are upset to see that Rep. Katherine Harris has a huge advantage in the GOP primary. Harris, though arguably the woman who delivered Florida for President Bush in 2000, is much more controversial than Nelson and is polling well behind him despite having equal (maybe even higher) name recognition. Karl Rove tried to get Florida House Speaker Allan Bense to run, but Bense said no, leaving Harris, the most polarizing politician in the state, the heavyweight in the Republican primary. All this gives Nelson a decent advantage in his bid for reelection despite the GOP domination of Sunshine State government.
Hawaii - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Daniel Akaka (D) - appointed in 1990
Nobody's even talking about this one. Akaka can say "aloha" to another term, even at his advanced age of 82.
Indiana - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Richard Lugar (R) - elected in 1976
If there are two things Hoosiers will never let go of, they are the Indy 500 and Dick Lugar.
Maine - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Olympia Snowe (R) - elected in 1994
Snowe says she's running, and Mainers, though predominantly Democratic voters, will happily grant her a third term.
Maryland (OPEN) - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Paul Sarbanes (D) - elected in 1976
Republicans have a good candidate in Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, but Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin has the edge. Rasmussen released a poll showing Cardin leading Steele, 45% to 40%, with Steele leading former NAACP President Kweisi Mfume 47% to 40%. Since Steele's name recognition is probably higher than Cardin's, those are promising numbers. But this makes it even clearer that if we nominate Mfume instead of Cardin, we could easily lose this seat, despite Maryland's natural tendencies. Note that even though Mfume's numbers are higher among African-Americans than Cardin's, Cardin's strength lies with moderate whites in the Baltimore suburbs...the very voters who decide Maryland elections.
Massachusetts - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Ted Kennedy (D) - elected in 1962 special election
Try to imagine Massachusetts without Senator Kennedy. Hard, isn't it?
Michigan - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Debbie Stabenow (D) - elected in 2000
Apparently, Michigan voters are blaming President Bush, Gov. Granholm (D), and the Republican state legislature, rather than Sens. Levin and Stabenow, for their state's lagging economy. Stabenow's approval rating stands in the low 50's, and she holds commanding leads against all of her GOP opponents. I expect this one may tighten up by summer 2006, but would be surprised to see Stabenow ousted without a major scandal or misstep on her part.
Minnesota to Ohio coming soon.
OurSenate