A lot of people (including the media) forget midterm elections. Whenever I turn on CNN, I see the pundits showing off their knowledge of 2008 politics and debating over Hillary, Frist, Bayh, Giuliani, bla bla bla bla bla. Yet next year, 2006, will have elections much, much, MUCH more important to the future of American politics.
Why, you ask? Why? Why should I care more about who ends up on C-SPAN than who ends up in the Oval Office?
Note: The following diary is very cliched and you've probably already thought of this...but it's meant to get us focused on the goal.
The answer below the fold...
The president's approval rating is in the low 40's. AP-Ipsos today showed the number to be 42%, and 38% regarding Iraq. President Bush is unpopular right now. And that is the situation to watch, because in 2002, the last midterm election, Bush's popularity is arguably what brought Republicans their congressional gains. So if the numbers are about the same in autumn 2006 as they are now, Democrats are good to go.
Today, Republicans have EVERYTHING. 2006 is a test of whether Americans trust us more than the Republicans, whose leadership they are clearly unhappy with. If Democrats make gains in 2006, the media will say "Dems made gains for the first time since 2000; does this signal a shift?". If we take back one or both houses of Congress, the media will be saying "in an historic election, Dems win a majority in Congress for the first time since 1992; and what does this mean for Hillary?". If we continue to lose ground, we'll be hearing about a permanent Republican majority and that the Democratic Party is in its last throes (in other words, the same bullshit we heard after 2002 and 2004). So, it is crucial that we at least gain a few seats, if nothing else.
So, why is 2006 more important than 2008?
If we have, say, Speaker Pelosi after the 2006 elections, Bush's efforts will be severely hindered. That would mean we have the situation we had during the early 1980's, when Reagan easily managed to get his nominees confirmed, but always had to get Tip O'Neill's approval on major legislation. So, just taking back the House would severely limit the wingnuts' power. It would also change the dialogue in this country from "how will the Democrats recover?" to "how long before they take back the rest?".
None of this will happen in 2008. 2008 will be just another year with rumors and stupid speculation and primaries in odd states and veep jockeying during the summer. The only way we can be a force in 2008 is to kick ass in 2006.
Turnout is historically very low (between 35% and 40%) for midterm elections. Let's change that. Make every non-wingnut you know vote next year. A President with a hostile Congress is more impotent than Bob Dole sans the Viagra. So, let's start now on our work leading up to November 7, 2006 so that, post-election, we have a say in the governing of this country. Also, it would be much better if Hillary has a Democratic Congress to deal with.