Bush did 6 points worse in this Calfornia district than in Paul Hackett's Ohio district. But, apparently, no Dems have entered yet. This looks like a perfect opportunity to capitalize on both Bush's and Gov. Schwarzenegger's unpopularity in California. We need to find another Paul Hackett for this race immediately.
From today's Rollcall:
The House resignation last week of newly confirmed Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Chris Cox kicked the race to succeed him in California's 48th district into overdrive, as the two top GOP candidates each basked in high-profile endorsements.
Cox's departure from Congress last Tuesday started the clock for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) to schedule a special election. Under state law, Schwarzenegger has 14 days to set the date, making it likely that the primary will take place some time in October and the runoff election in December.
Before Cox, a Republican, even left the House, state Sen. John Campbell (R) and ex-state Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer (R) were already running hard to take over his heavily GOP district.
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Campbell got some good news last week in the form of a rare official endorsement from Schwarzenegger. Though the governor's popularity has dropped in recent months as he has grappled with legislative and political setbacks, the endorsement is still considered valuable.
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But Brewer appears to have scored some high-profile backing of her own. Ken Khachigian, the Republican lawyer who serves as California point man for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), said McCain would be endorsing Brewer soon.
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Campbell's campaign will likely focus on his experience and solidly conservative credentials, while Brewer's will emphasize her similarly conservative economic views while also touting her moderate positions on social issues -- a profile that she believes is better-suited to the affluent district centered on Newport Beach.
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Beyond the basic moderate vs. conservative divide, the ideological battle within the primary could be further complicated if more candidates jump in. Ex-GOP Rep. Bob Dornan (Calif.) is reportedly considering a third-party bid, as is anti-immigration activist Jim Gilchrist, who is best known for founding the Minuteman Project along the Arizona-Mexico border.
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Under California's system, candidates from all parties will run together on the same October primary ballot. If no candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote, then the top finisher from each party proceeds to a runoff election two months later.
No Democrat has expressed an interest in the race yet. President Bush won the district in 2004 with 58 percent of the vote.