Summer's slowly winding down. Did you jet away somewhere on vacation?
If you did, you probably noticed that the airports were humming. Well, ok, they don't really hum anymore: they drip or drone, depending upon where or when you're traveling.
The good news:
The FAA says we're exceeding pre-September 11th levels, with 200 million people expected to fly this summer. Yes, that's the good news.
The bad news:
Besides an upcoming pilot crunch on the horizon [due to: 1) the graying of Vietnam-era military turned commercial cockpits, and 2) a sharp decrease - from just under 40,000 in 1970 to about 12,000 today - in the amount of Air Force pilots, the traditional pool commercial air carriers rely on], airlines are facing a fuel shortage that is already creating problems at some of our busiest airports.
The fuel crunch story is actually quite compelling...
Please take a moment to read the safety briefing card in the seatback pocket in front of you, then turn to the fun flying facts below the fold...
Airlines have been struggling with jet fuel supply problems throughout July and August.
Apparently, some of the looming problems in the aviation industry began as "routine supply tightness" stemming from a variety of events: weather disruptions in the form of hurricanes, fuel shipments that were cancelled, as well as backfiring tweaking done by airlines trying to prevent this supply tightness.
The AP reports:
Airports in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada recently came within a few days - and at times within hours - of running out of jet fuel. Because of supply bottlenecks, airlines were forced to fly in extra fuel from other markets and scramble for deliveries by truck. But these are expensive, short-term fixes that do not address what airline executives consider to be the underlying problem: with passenger traffic rising above pre-9/11 levels, the nation's aviation business is slowly outgrowing the infrastructure that fuels it.
Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, United Airlines, and America West have all confirmed that they have recently had supply problems to contend with - especially in the southwestern section of the country.
Late July and early August were "unprecedented for Southwest for the number of cities where we've had to manage supply problems," said Glenn Hipp, director of fuel purchasing and inventory management at Dallas-based Southwest Airlines Co.
There haven't been any cancelled flights, and flight safety has not been impaired say the airlines; however, fuel shortage problems are beginning to bubble up to the surface.
With June passenger traffic up 4% from 2001 levels, the rising energy demand on the economy belies the "added strain on refineries, pipelines, and the airlines' own fuel procurement efforts - just as the industry recovers from its worst-ever downturn."
Part of the problem is that refining and pipeline capacity in some regions of the U.S. have grown slower than demand, meaning companies must run their equipment harder to satisfy growing fuel needs. This raises the chances of operational snags and leaves less of a cushion when something does go wrong. Recent refinery outages have helped push oil prices to record heights near $64 a barrel.
Also, the petroleum industry has reduced its fuel inventories in recent decades, redirecting funds once spent on storage to more lucrative oil drilling. Thus, some of the burden of storing surplus fuel has shifted to the airlines. But the industry's financial woes have hindered its ability, or willingness, to increase spending on storage, according to John Armbrust, publisher of Jet Fuel Report, an industry newsletter.
"If more effort isn't put into resolving some of these issues, it could have serious impact on the operational integrity of the whole aviation system," warned Bob Sturtz, general manager of fuel at Elk Grove Village, Ill.-based United Airlines.
Airline executives are predicting that the problem could get worse before it gets better. And the problems are not limited to the southwestern portion of the US.
Officials at Dulles International Airport (outside of Washington, D.C.) are working with the Colonial Pipeline Company to "build a wider pipeline to feed Dulles and an additional 300,000 barrels of storage at the airport." Until the pipeline is ready to move from the design stage, Dulles has to rely on trucking in fuel from the southeast to meet its needs.
The fuel supply woes are dogging an industry already losing billions of dollars a year in large part because of soaring fuel costs. The price of jet fuel averages $1.91 per gallon in Los Angeles, up 46 percent from a year ago, according to government data.
Airlines have used all sorts of strategies to improve their fuel efficiency, from flying at slower speeds to taxiing on one engine. These efforts have worked, but they have also been offset by their maneuvering around supply bottlenecks.
America West's assistant treasurer Timothy Walker said the industry deserves credit for its ability to manage these problems without affecting service. But he conceded that making up for low supplies with truck and airplane deliveries is not a long-term strategy.
"The lack of fuel could slow growth in certain markets," Walker said. He cited Phoenix and Las Vegas as two America West markets likely to face fuel-supply challenges if traffic continues to grow.
Apparently, we've already had a first mini-crisis in Phoenix.
Kinder Morgan, a Houston-based pipeline operator, failed to deliver a scheduled shipment of jet fuel on July 20th; to compensate, air carriers began `ferrying' extra fuel to Phoenix on empty planes from Reno, San Diego, and Ontario (CA).
At first, it looked like crisis was averted; but, then fuel shortages began to threaten the airline schedules at those very same airports bailing Phoenix out. They ended up having to truck in jet fuel to these stations, just to keep the ferrying program to Phoenix alive.
Delivering jet fuel by truck is like "putting a handful of sand on a beach," Hipp said. "It doesn't really keep up with demand."
San Diego and Ontario came so close to drawing down their fuel inventories, Sturtz said, that airlines were a few hours away from scheduling additional layovers so planes could refuel.
The crisis was resolved gradually as pipeline deliveries returned to normal and airlines focused on using as little fuel as necessary.
Kinder Morgan blamed its canceled fuel shipment on an unnamed refiner that couldn't keep up with higher-than-anticipated demand. It also said the supply disruption in Phoenix was not as significant as the airlines made it out to be and that the trouble at other airports was partly the result of its own jet fuel shipments being diverted from California to bolster supplies in Phoenix. Nevertheless, it announced plans to spend $130 million to replace a 140-mile pipeline with a larger one to move more fuel to Arizona from Texas and New Mexico refineries.
Thoroughly unrelated, but producing similar results, a number of airports in Florida (particularly Orlando and Tampa) also found themselves with their own jet fuel shortage problems. The culprit, this time, was Mother Nature in the form of hurricanes and tropical storms moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Again, the airlines cranked up the ferry system to bring fuel into Florida airports.
They've been doing this for two weeks. With no end in sight.
Some suggestions:
- Have fun out there.
- Enjoy your next flight on that luxury liner.
- Smile at your flight attendants and tell them what a great job they do.
- Thank your pilots for getting you from point A to point B safely.
Once peak oil hits, we'll look back wistfully (and rightfully) on this era as a hip one, indeed.