from my political blog,
Basie!
In the comments section of my blog, a reader named Walker inquires as to whether I believe the Democrats have a shot at retaking the Senate next fall. Well, I'm going to give somewhat of an answer -- but also a bit of a cop-out.
There are a few possibilities floating out there these days, the most likely of which plays out as follows. There is a slight breeze against the President and the Republican Party, as often happens in off-year elections, leading to moderate pickups in states most conducive to Democrats. In this situation, the Democrats pick up seats in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island -- and perhaps Ohio -- and hold on to difficult seats in Nebraska, Minnesota and Florida. Numerically, this leaves Senate Dems with 46-48 members, meaning increased strength, but still weaker than the period of 2001-2005.
Another distinct possibility...
Another distinct possibility is that the discontent among Americans continues to fester, leaving the GOP in a much more weakened position. Evidence shows Americans are unhappy with the Republican Party these days -- just look at the vote a week and a half ago in Ohio or any of the major national polls. So here's how this situation could unfold:
A major event -- be it an indictment of Tom DeLay, further evidence from Jack Abramoff, or a strong anti-administration ruling in the Plame investigation -- multiplies Americans' unhappiness leading to a wind blowing against the GOP. With Democratic voters emboldened and the Republican base depressed, Karl Rove's turnout plans go awry. In this case, the Democrats have an ever-so-small opening to pick up the Senate. In addition to victories in Rhode Island and Pennsylvania, strong candidates in Arizona, Montana, Tennessee and Ohio pick up seats, giving the Senate Dems a narrow 51-49 hold over the Senate. This situation is not necessarily likely, but it is a distinct possibility these days.
Could the opposite occur? Could Democrats falter, allowing the GOP to expand its majority? In the worst case scenario for the Democrats that I can imagine, the party loses seats in Florida, Nebraska and Minnesota, while picking up only one seat. This puts the Democrats in the 41-43 range. I don't see this happening, but I have been known to make some poor predictions in the past.
So take these thoughts for what they're worth -- a guess at a point way too early to be making guesses. No one imagined in 2004 that the Kentucky Senate race would be close, but a number of flubs by incumbent Jim Bunning made it happen. Likewise, local issues like sugar in Louisiana or coal in West Virginia can make all of the difference in some races. But rest assured that I'll continue covering these races for the next 15 months.
for more political analysis, check out my newly redesigned blog at Basie.org