It's hard to believe it has been only a week or so since many of us began
networking about the unprecedented catastrophe bearing down on the gulf states called Hurricane Katrina. From my perspective it went by like a nightmarish blur as it unfolded. Now it seems a lifetime ago.
For myself, I was merely a conduit to the real source of information: Steve Gregory and the other weather bloggers at The Weather Undergound. Steve has joined DKos and I'm writing this to thank him and introduce him. And I'd like to point out that he called this thing dead on balls accurate from the get go. Steve asked that I post some comments below on his behalf while his seven day limit expires. More after the jump.
First it's important to set the record straight about the minor role I played over a single weekend VS the skilled professionals who were spoon feeding my diaries--and patiently explaining to anyone who would listen for years how serious this was going to be, right up to the last second (And even afterward). I came across the Weather Underground when I was writing/researching a routine anecdotal tale urging folks to leave the Gulf Area. Later on that finished diary
hfiend underscored that same blog in comments. Without hfiend jogging my memory and causing me to go back, reread Steve Gregory, and write Steve directly, I never would have had a clue to emphasize the issue so forcefully.
I don't want anyone to get the idea this thread is intended to be a backslapping 'atta boy' fest while the people of the stricken region continue to suffer unspeakable horrors. I've seen enough of that bullshit circle-jerking on pressers and the news networks to last me the rest of my effin life. But there is a difference between false praise heaped on ineffectual leaders and incompetent appointees of the most senior offices in the US whose job is to react, and recognizing the professionals whose job is to warn them and who did that job in no uncertain terms.
The men and women of The Weather Underground fulfilled their roles brilliantly. Their dire warnings were echoed right here on DKos and around the media net. Apparently the folks who actually make the life and death decisions at the highest level were, inexplicably, not listening.
Steve has been fascinated by weather since age 10. He holds a bachelors in Meteorology (Florida State University--THE school for meteorology) and an MBA in Finance/Economics. His hurricane forecasting career spans over 30 years starting as an intern at the National Hurricane Center. He went on to work for major offshore oil companies and most major airlines as a forecaster and weather dispatcher ending with a 26 year stint as the chief meteorologist at United Airlines. He now makes his living trading commodity futures and providing expert advice to clients of futures trading firms based on weather forecasting.
Steve is available to answer questions or concerns about weather related phenomena on this thread in comments. His Dkos user name is WeatherInsite. This is a great chance to pick the brain of a veteran storm meteorologist about climate related issues past, present, and future. And I hope you join me in welcoming Steve to The Daily Kos. His latest thoughts are below.
THIS IS HOMELAND SECURITY?
Normally, I NEVER publicly criticize public figures - it's bad for business. And by the very nature of my profession -- I'm a 'purest' when it comes to Weather forecasting. My service is to provide answers that are not embellished or manipulated by outside influences or political correctness. My job is to aid in decision support -- whether that decision is to route a plane differently to avoid bad weather, or take advantage of a window of opportunity in which to prepare - and recover - from a storm that may inflict death and destruction of biblical proportions. For anything less, there are plenty of those kind of services available in the public and private sectors.
But over the pasty week, I have witnessed far more than the awesome power of nature -- and maybe it was because I now have streaming video news on my desktop on a 7x24 - along with the constant bombardment of the weather data and model forecast data streaming at me without missing a beat. But suddenly, I feel compelled to say something on behalf of the millions of people I sense have no way to say say it for themselves right at this moment. Why the hell has it taken 120 hours to bring the level of relief and help to our country's people, that by all reasonable agreement, should of been available 24 hours after the attack on our nation by mother nature? And like all good mothers, she warned us -- 'just one more time, and this is your last warning!'
As the blame game unfolds -- being led by far more capable writers and journalists than I -- it reminded me of the infamous scene in a movie whose name escapes me after another 20 hour work day - in which the TV Anchorman throws open the window of his apartment and screams at the top of his lungs to anyone of earshot: "I'm made as Hell and I'm not going to take it anymore!"
And there may be plenty of blame to go around of why we allowed ourselves to be so self delusional as to think the 100 year storm only happens every 100 years - and somehow, the politicians always had another 101 years to go before the 'Big One' would strike. But even that is not what I am so angered at. No -- what angers me the most - is the total and transparently obvious Disaster of our Disaster Relief programs. When pressed by reporters, the latest and greatest of excuses for these delays are include blaming looters and snipers -- for the seemingly snail's pace of disaster relief coordination, and implementation. I have a REALLY big problem with the State and Federal GOV'T that sat on their hands when they were told in no uncertain terms a CATASTROPHE was coming - with no less than 24 hrs notice. Why weren't they better positioned logistically to handle this? They were told in advance there would be a catastrophe. Exactly what level of warning do they need before they get the confirming message' of an impending attack? You know, where you raise the color code to orange or red - or whatever color of the day seems appropriate? Evidently, the code breakers at the Pentagon didn't think the level of chatter was high enough to unduly frighten people. Either that, or maybe there is still a back log of English written e-mails and government transmittals that had that CATEGORY 5 Hurricane Warning, along with the government intercepted high resolution image showing the enemy was already sneaking up on us from the south. Coming by ocean, to avoid having to go through those long lines of customs
The head of NHC called the Mayor of New Orleans on Sunday morning and said 'this is THE ONE'. How much clearer can you make it? The Gov't knew for many years the levees were inadequate, and at best were designed for a weak CAT 3 hurricane! There was no microscopic level of doubt that this was a monumental CAT 5 hurricane with a storm surge of 20-30 feet being forecast. President Bush has been the latest in a long line of Presidents and elected politicians who killed legislation that would of upgraded the levee system and prevented the flooding of New Orleans. An $8-$14bil project-- and it was pushed aside. A key reason New Orleans is so at risk from a strong hurricanes is due the gradual disappearance of the wetlands on the Gulf Coast that once stood as a natural buffer between the city and storms coming in from the Gulf. The disappearance of those wetlands does not have the name of a political party or a particular administration attached to it. The real root cause for this vulnerability is more than a century's worth of tinkering with he natural flow of the Mississippi-- effectively cutting off the movement of alluvial soil to the river's delta region.
But aside from the long term policies of brushing aside the consequences of trying to improve upon natures handling of the river flow -- there has been some recent short term policy changes by the current Administration that have led to even larger levels of risk exposure. The Clinton administration put in place some stringent policies relevant to our wetlands in general -- only to be repealed by the Bush administration. In a joint task force report in 2004, it was demonstrated that the Bush Administration policies had resulted in the draining of thousands and thousands of acres of wetlands.
So can we blame Bush for the fact that New Orleans is 7 feet below seas level - absolutely not. But we can blame him when a Category 3 hurricane floods the city of New Orleans. Just two months ago, Bush cut out $71.2 million from the budget of the New Orleans Corps of Engineers, a 44 percent reduction. The result of this move meant all major hurricane and flood projects would not be going forward. It also meant that a study to determine how to protect New Orleans from a CAT 5 storm had no chance of even being undertaken.
Clearly, the War in Iraq has also hampered our ability to protect the Homeland. Over one third of Louisiana's National Guardsmen are in Iraq, where on average 40 percent of our entire National Guard now call home. Another little 'detail' of where our resources have been diverted from our National Guard inventory of material are the dozens of ' high-water vehicles, Humvees, refuelers and generators have al l sent to Iraq. Let's see;-- high water vehicles goes to the Deserts of Iraq. Does anyone see something wrong with this picture? If this is an example of what has happened in other areas that relates to the logistical support that clearly would have helped in the rate of at which recovery efforts could be undertaken -- well, I for one think this was a bad move. Right along side with the Iraq war.
So, the President 'saved us' maybe $14 billion dollars on protecting the city of New Orleans, but seems to have no qualms about spending $400 billion dollars to fight the War in Iraq which as far as I can tell, has yielded little more than total grief and the loss of several thousand more American lives. The President can now also add in at least $100 billion dollars to put back together one of the nation's most historic landmark City's and vital economic 'engines'. Plus, half a million people or more out of work in an instant and the closure of ports that serve as vital thoroughfare through which billions of dollars a month in U.S. EXPORTS from the nations bread basket must flow through the lower Mississippi river ports -- which have been choked to death with nearly 100 either turned over or sunk barges. The human toll goes way beyond those hundreds or even thousands who died, or are living through this unimaginable hell. THOUSANDS of inactive reservists are being dragged out of their homes and away from their family's and jobs -- to go and assist in the recovery effort.
But wait, there's more! The nation is in the midst of the worst fuel supply problem since the oil embargo of 1973 -- and arguably far worse if things don't get fixed real soon. The release of 100mil barrels of fuel from the IEA world reserves - an unprecedented move -- speaks to the enormity of the energy crisis that really exists. As does the Presidential order yesterday to waive existing law that prevents ships flying foreign nation flags to move oil from one American port to another. This is VITAL to getting crude oil from one location to another where there are working refineries. What pipelines use to be able to do -- now needs to be done via tankers. And the U.S. doesn't have enough tankers to move the oil around.
In addition, normally, 2 ships a day arrive from Europe with gasoline to make up for the normal shortfall of our own refinery capabilities. Thursday, 20 ships were booked -- though they won't get here until the end of the month. 9 refineries were put totally out of service, and dozens of others far removed from New Orleans are running at below normal utilization rates in an attempt to avoid running out of crude oil to refine. Once a plant is forced to cease operations, or gets 'shut in' - even if a fleet of Ryder trucks arrived on the scene with a million barrels of oil 5 minutes later - it would still take nearly a week to bring the refinery back up to maximum output. This has been the most monumental disaster in oil industry history. The 'perfect storm times two! Yet, it seems to me the only group working at full speed to keep the nation's energy flowing - is the oil industry itself! This storm, and in particular, our inability to respond rapidly during the past 5 days after Katrina struck -- has created a potential nightmare scenario for the nation's economy - one in which was avoidable.
Think about how much money we've dumped into this "Homeland Security" trough of a money pit - "rapid, coordinated response in case of an attack". President Bush, as our Commander in Chief chose to lie to Americans on why we needed to go to Iraq, helped craft and get put into law the Patriot Act that allows all our civil liberties to be trampled on -- all to make sure we are 'safe' from the hidden terrorists amongst us -- and to make sure none of them can attack us again. But also, he created yet another nightmare of an organization, "Homeland Security", whose mission is to to deal with an emergency like this -- just as if there was in fact a terrorist attack.
How much more of a real world test of our preparedness can you get? This was like a massive missile attack upon New Orleans and 200 miles of coastline in order to destroy our oil infrastructure. And to highlight the level of ineptitude -- we need to allow for the fact that Osama called the President 24 hours ahead of the attack 'to play fair' this time and announce he was going to attack the U.S. with hundreds of bomb laden missiles.
So - 24 hrs later, the bombs go off, and we have a national emergency and we responded -- sort of. Is this all we get for our money since 9/11? And is this what we can expect when the day finally comes and there is an actual terrorist attack?
There's no doubt the recovery efforts have been hampered by the criminal elements within the city - the animal nature of the snipers, who are akin to a 50 man terrorist team from Osama's landing attack boats. But what about the devastation along the Mississippi coast and Alabama coasts? And why has it taken 3 days just to get extra law enforcement and MP's into the city to take out the handful of snipers and criminals who are shooting people for no reason at all. Even this added 'disturbance' should not have been a surprise to anyone. There is always a small but sick element in our society -- and this looting and indiscriminate killing was an easily predictable outcome from a disaster of this magnitude on an inner city or densely populated urban environment like New Orleans. The same type of environments commonly found in New York, Washington, Chicago, and Los Angeles. Law and order will always vanish when something of this magnitude happens. The GOV'T KNOWS this -- we all know this -- so why weren't we prepared for it? 120 hours ago -- and still we are on the brink of a second humanitarian disaster in which hundreds or possibly thousands more may die simply because we were so ill prepared to deal with this disaster. The only thing that seemed to show up quickly were scenes of incompetent politicians all complementing each other on for coming together in this time of urgent need.
I for one want to hear some apologies for the mess they have allowed to evolve -- and as a taxpayer, I'd like a refund please for the billions wasted on the Homeland Security Department. And while you're at it, how about giving me back my civil liberties you conveniently discarded 4 years ago?
Steve Gregory