The failures of the federal government's response to Katrina are obvious to everyone. The WH has come under substantial criticism from many directions, including from a media that was generally afraid to criticize the administration or call it on its bullshit. Given these realities, the GOP machine is going to have to try to shift blame, and I believe that this shift will be in three parts. Each part has some capacity to harm the Democrats, but if handled correctly, each attempt to shift blame could backfire and hurt the GOP instead.
I believe that the GOP will attempt to do the following. First, they will try to blame the response to the hurricnane on local and state authorities, rather than federal authorities (this is already happening). If that doesn't work, they will try to claim that the poor response was due to all of the "bureaucracy" involved in the DHS, which the Democrats came up with, and they will try to blame the fact that the Dem's wanted to keep DHS employees unionized. Finally, the GOP will claim that the Democrats, by focusing on weather, are threatening America by trying to move DHS funds from fighting terrorism, where it belongs, to protecting against weather, which is impossible to predict.
All three of these attempts to shift blame could work, or at least could distract blame from the GOP, if not responded to well.
1. The GOP will try to blame the response on local authorities, rather than on the federal government
On a local level, this strategy has some chance of succeeding. Govenor Blanco could be hurt, but she doesn't face reelection until 2007. The Mayor may also be hurt, but I am not sure that many will blame him - he did order a mandatory evacuation, after all. Essentially, the best hope for the GOP here isn't that they win a few more office seats, but that the national public doesn't blame Bush.
Honestly, I think that the GOP is being very shortsighted if they seriously try this approach. What the GOP would honestly be saying, by using this approach, is that the federal government is not here to help your local community if it is pounded by an enormous storm. Do you think that the resident of Florida and Louisiana and North Carolina want to hear that? ANY Democrat running for office in these states should make sure that the people know that abandoning localities hit by a hurricane is the desired response of the GOP.
Also, Democrats should also take advantage of the semi-resentment that many southerners (and I'm from Texas here...) feel about New York City and about the northern cities in general. Many southerners feel that city-folk look down on the rural parts of the country - so the Democrats should make SURE to point out that it took Bush no time at all to get federal money and a federal response to New York City when it was hit by a disaster, but days to get help to the South.
2. The GOP will try to blame the Democrats for coming up with the unwieldy DHS in the first place and for fighting for the rights for unions in the DHS.
I'd say that, if I were the GOP, I'd have started making this arguement IMMEDIATELY. I think that we are somewhat vulnerable here. After all, they have plenty of quotes from Dem's pointing out that we came up with the whole DHS idea in the first place. Also, we did delay the creation of the department for a bit on the union issue (I was always uncomfortable with this political strategy). They might be able to get some traction here, but they have given the left time to come up with a response.
We need to make sure to hit back hard and fast if they try to blame the response problems on the fact that the DHS exists in the first place. We have to take a page from the GOP playbook. The GOP has never been shy about outright lying about the Democrats opinion on the military - any criticism of any sort of spending by a Democrat is labeled as weak on national defense. We have to pull the same dishonest stunt. If they make any attack on the DHS, no matter how valid, we have to twist their words so that we make it seem that they are attacking the Coast Guard or the Secret Service or whatever. If the GOP says that there were too many organizations put together for the DHS to run well, we have to respond with "The Republicans are blaming the Coast Guard for the disaster in New Orleans, but we think that the men and women in uniform did an outstanding job..." blah blah blah.
3. The GOP will try to claim that the DHS and FEMA are there to respond to terrorist attacks. Do the Democrats not want us prepared for terrorist attacks?
Frankly, I am PRAYING that they try this. I think they will, and if the Dems roll over like they always do, it'll probably work. Of course, our response is obvious, and people on Kos have pointed it out many times. The response is that the flooding disaster could very easily have been a terrorist attack in the first place! Obviously, terrorists could have decided to blow the levee on a nice day, with no warning, and flood the city when there were 1.5 million in town, instead of just 300,000. If this was a terrorist attack - why should we believe that the response would have been any better? More ominously - how do we know that the governments (and thus the GOPs) terrorist response plans will work if we have to evacuate a dirty-bombed Manhattan or Los Angeles?
I think that these three attacks will all be made, and can fairly easily be parried, if the left is quick to respond. I hope we do so.