Several days ago, friday durdikova asked I write a diary on this subject.
The slow, inadequate, and downright obstructionist response of FEMA to Hurricane Katrina's devastation must be taken as a warning that the federal government cannot be relied upon to help during a crisis. We're on our own. Thus, we need to prepare for possible upcoming emergencies ourselves, on a household or neighborhood level. A major disaster that is on the horizon now is H5N1 bird flu.
(more below)
You probably already know about H5N1 avian flu and the possibility of a pandemic similar to the one that killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide in 1918. This H5N1 bird flu virus currently has a mortality rate of about 50% when it infects humans (the 1918 flu had a 3-5% mortality rate), but as yet is not easily transmissible between humans, although cases of probable transmission have occurred in Asia. It is, however, mutating and exists in a huge reservoir of birds, domestic and wild, and has jumped species into cats, mice, pigs and humans. Either through simple mutation or, in the case of pigs and humans, concurrent infection with a human flu virus resulting in gene exchange, may render it into a virulent pandemic agent.
A more pathogenic form of the virus has now been found in migratory birds at a lake in Mongolia on the border with Russia where migratory birds from a very wide area converge. Infection is readily spread through bird excreta. Scientists are now studying the prevalence of the virus in wild bird populations in Alaska and in California. Meanwhile, it is the scientific consensus that the US is not prepared to deal with a possible pandemic. Science, Nature, New Scientist, Scientific American, Science News, and many other journals have been full of sobering articles with warnings for months.
The Bush Administration has ordered a meagre 2 million doses of a preliminary vaccine that is expected to reduce mortality; unfortunately, it requires about 5 doses to confer any protection, so that's enough for about 450,000 people, and it won't be us. Vaccines are fragile, require refrigeration, expire, and take 5 months to make even if there were sufficient manufacturers ready to make them, which there aren't. By the time we know precisely what the pandemic virus will be in order to make a potent targeted vaccine, it will be too late; the majority of victims will already have succumbed.
Two antivirals have demonstrated ability to reduce mortality by up to 80% and they are Tamiflu (oseltamivir) and Relenza (zanamivir). They have a shelf life of about 7 years, and thus are the obvious choices for stockpiling. The Dept. of Health and Human Services has stockpiled a pitiful 2.3 million courses of these antivirals. The Infectious Disease Society of America calculates that the US should have a minimum of about 70 to 125 million courses stockpiled. The Bush Administration is reluctant to stockpile sufficient amounts due to expense, as it could cost up to $1 billion. Damage from a pandemic has been estimated as in the hundreds of billions, not including the immense suffering and death. Penny-wise, pound foolish Bush obviously has not heard the aphorism of the stitch in time, and we all know what Bush has squandered our hard-earned tax money on -- and it isn't useful things like this. By contrast, the United Kingdom is already stockpiling 50 million doses of Tamiflu, enough for more than a quarter of their population.
Scientists have warned that each fall flu season has the potential to be the start of a pandemic. Some are saying it could come as soon as this fall. What can we do to prepare? As individuals, we are not able to stockpile antivirals unless we are MDs or pharmacists. Can we as communities do this? What other measures can we take to protect ourselves and our families should a pandemic occur?
I will be stockpiling surgical masks (as we saw in the SARS epidemic), latex gloves, antiseptic soaps and cleaning solutions such as chlorox. There are home air filters supposedly able to remove viruses. We are stocking up on fresh water and canned food in order to minimize having to go out into public places. I will become a compulsive hand-washing recluse and wear masks and gloves when forced to leave my home. I am also beginning to plant a food forest in my yard.
I strongly recommend people form neighborhood organizations and if there are any physicians or nurses in the neighborhood, ask them if they have any ideas about how you may, on a local community level, stockpile your own supply of antivirals. It could be potentially life-saving. Stockpiling now is essential.
It is important that we urge City and State governments to prepare for a pandemic and stockpile antivirals as well. However, the only way to ensure that we are protected is to have the meds on hand ourselves. As we have seen, FEMA can thwart local and regional life-saving measures if they wish, and our blueness marks us. Are you Bluish?
Other resources:
http://www.idsociety.org/Template.cfm?Section=Home&Template=/ContentManagement/ContentDisplay.cf
m&ContentID=13670
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/idsa/influenza/panflu/biofacts/panflu.html
http://www.fluwikie.com
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/8/21/112518/149
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/5/27/175740/883