Update [2005-9-6 13:27:25 by Federalist]:
I had to insert this update at the top. The 2004
Hurricane "Pam" simulation
summary found on FEMA'S OWN WEBSITE [
Google cache], foretold overtopped levees -- other problems -- in NOLA.
Original post:
I felt compelled to post these this evening. Let it be known, I am a meteorologist. Last Saturday and Sunday I sat back, like many in my field did, and watched in horror as hurricane Katrina -- a storm of nearly unparalleled strength in recorded history -- barreled toward a certain landfall at or near New Orleans. What was most eerie about the situation was
absolutely knowing what horrors and destruction were about to unfold along the Gulf Coast and in New Orleans. I get a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach when these things happen -- knowing beforehand that weather is surely about to kill. Yet, I was powerless to stop it. My only hope was that people had taken the warnings seriously and that FEMA and others were prepared to respond to what would undoubtedly be a horrific catastrophe.
Much more below the fold.
Everyone I know in meteorology understood that New Orleans was living on borrowed time. This scenario -- NOLA taking a direct hit from a major hurricane -- had been discussed ad infinitum in meteorology (and emergency management) circles for years as being one of the most (if not
the most) deadly serious weather disasters America could ever face. Unfortunately, last weekend, New Orleans' time had run out.
It should be said over and over again, the resulting devastation in New Orleans was absolutely not some sort of unforeseen surprise. When I hear Bush or any of his political appointees in FEMA and Homeland Security (all of whom are in full "CYA mode") talk about not anticipating the level of devestation in New Orleans, I become infuriated!!! It was well known -- well before landfall -- by local emergency managers, scientists, and anyone with common sense what devestation awaited those locations in Katrina's path, NOLA specifically. Of course, in this Administration, science means about as much as last week's losing lottery ticket -- used chewing gum wrapper.
Anyway, we in the United States are lucky to be served by the most advanced government-run weather service on the globe. The National Weather Service (NWS) is a science-driven agency who's mission is to protect lives and property from weather hazards. Without getting too long-winded in my gratitude and accolades for the job those in the Weather Service do, just take it from me that they perform a phenomenal service for the citizens of our nation (BTW, in case you're wondering, I do not work for the NWS -- directly or indirectly -- or any agency of the federal goverment). Regardless of what Sen. Rick Santorum thinks about the Weather Service, American taxpayers certainly get their money's worth from this federal agency.
On the eve of Katrina's landfall, the professional forecasters at regional National Weather Service offices across the southeast and the agency's National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami gave dire warnings on what was sure to be a weather calamity that this county has not seen in over a century (since the Galveston, TX hurricane of 1900). The regional Weather Service office at New Orleans/Slidell, LA was -- understandably -- on "red alert". The public warnings and advisories issued by personnel at the Slidell office spelled out, in horrific detail, what was about to unfold in New Orleans and along the Gulf Coast. These selfless, dedicated civil servants, who themselves were in the direct path of this killer, gave all the forewarning anyone in the government should ever need to start gearing up for a massive response. Yet, this incompetent Administration failed miserably. It should have been a "slam dunk"...
To prove my point, the following four official NWS "wire" bulletins were just some of the warnings issued by either the National Hurricane Center or the Slidell NWS office -- up to several days before New Orleans met it's fate when Katrina plowed ashore near Slidell along the LA/MS border -- to highlight, in almost gross detail, the impending emergency. This is only a very small subset of the total number of warnings issued by the NWS before and during Katrina's landfall. I have posted these advisories in their entirety (any emphasis is mine) for credibility and effect. Keep in mind, all of the following advisories were public statements issued by the NHC or the Slidell office and were available to anyone (i.e., other government agencies, media, regular folks with a NOAA weather radio or internet connection) in realtime. As someone who reads Weather Service bulletins often, I was made speechless by the strength of the language contained within these bulletins. The Weather Service, well aware of the risks of "crying wolf", has never been an agency with an affinity for hype. Their Katrina warnings, however, were bleak...and spot on:
WTNT32 KNHC 282041
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS EVENING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.
KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. SOUTHWEST PASS...NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 53 MPH.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 902 MB...26.64 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...26.9 N... 89.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 902 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!
WWUS74 KLIX 282139
NPWLIX
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
WWUS74 KLIX 291122
NPWLIX
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
619 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING ACROSS LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH...
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW POSSIBLY TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. MANY WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED.
$$
'nuff said. "We never anticipated XXXX" is not a valid excuse!
Update [2005-9-6 5:13:32 by Federalist]:
For anyone interested in reading more about NOLA's well-known hurricane exposure, Louisiana State University has a good website to browse through. There is a lot of information here -- including analysis of storm surge/flooding forecast models in the New Orleans study area:
http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.edu/
http://www.hurricane.lsu.edu/floodprediction/
Also, the New Scientist journal also has a good article which quotes LSU coastal scientist Greg Stone:
"This is a scenario that a lot of scientists, engineers, and managers have thought about for a long time. We hate to see it happen, but it was inevitable."
This disaster absolutely was not an unknown threat...
Update [2005-9-6 5:54:31 by Federalist]:
I would like to point out (something which is probably already obvious) that the four bulletins above were not meant to be
the wake-up call that New Orleans had a hurricane problem! That issue was already well, well-known. It was too late to reduce NOLA's exposure. However, the official information coming from the Weather Service (and reiterated by
many) should have been taken (by FEMA, et. al.) as a huge freakin' cue that this was the "big one", that response preparations should be fully engaged, and to expect worst-case scenario conditions -- as spelled-out explicitly in those advisories and by the director of the NHC during briefings to the media and others.
Update [2005-9-6 11:6:40 by Federalist]:
Take this Michael Chertoff! While looking through various advisories from the NWS, I found this one from the Slidell office dated
9 AM CDT on Monday, August 29th (I cropped the statement to cut down on length -- bolding and underline emphasis is mine):
WTUS84 KLIX 291359
HLSLIX
LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-291600-
HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
900 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005
...HURRICANE KATRINA DIRECT HIT FOR NEW ORLEANS AND MISSISSIPPI COAST...
...LEVEES OVERTOPPED IN ORLEANS AND ST BERNARD PARISHES...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MOVING ACROSS NEW ORLEANS AND MISSISSIPPI COAST...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER....
...EXTENSIVE AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COAST AT THIS TIME.
(... snip ...)
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
KATRINA MAKING LANDFALL IN EASTERN NEW ORLEANS AND MISSISSIPPI COAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS OCCURRING. LEVEES HAVE BEEN OVERTOPPED IN ORLEANS AND ST BERNARD PARISHES. IN ADDITION DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE OCCURRING ON TOP OF THE STORM SURGE NEAR THE COAST. SEVERE TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...SEVERE STORM SURGE FLOODING IS PROBABLY OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST ST TAMMANY PARISH AND IN HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON COUNTIES IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.
(... snip ...)
Um, so much for Chertoff's Meet the Press claim that the levees didn't become a problem until
Tuesday...
Re-jected! This is information that Homeland Security and FEMA should have been on top of! Unreal.
For the time being, these statements are still archived on a number of NOAA/NWS websites. For example, the statement above is online
here.
Eventually, this data will "expire" and be cleaned off this particular server -- as all old data is. Rest assured, though, this is not the only archive of these bulletins.
Update [2005-9-6 11:25:59 by Federalist]:
mnhtnbb in comments found the link to a great National Geographic article, which details the coastal problems that NOLA and SE LA face. That article is online
here.
The Louisiana bayou, hardest working marsh in America, is in big trouble—with dire consequences for residents, the nearby city of New Orleans, and seafood lovers everywhere.
Hum... Print date was October 2004 (thanks sarac) -- obviously
well before Katrina hit!
Update [2005-9-7 2:19:14 by Federalist]:
thebes in
comments notes that the NWS was reporting, as early as
8:14 AM CDT Monday, that the levee along the Industrial Canal in NOLA was breached.
Also, I couldn't help thinking that
Sen. Rick Santorum's bill (
S. 786) proposing
partial privatization of the NWS (BTW,
Accu-Weather founder Joel Myers and Co. are big Rick Santorum
donors) is looking like quite a political liability in light of recent events. The bill is atrocious. Calling Casey and Pennacchio campaigns...