Yesterday, I posted the second in what will be a series of profiles of potentially vulnerable GOP seats. That diary included New York and Pennsylvania and can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/13/182810/480. The first was posted on Monday and included New England and New Jersey and can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/12/193114/114
As noted yesterday, based on the national climate (if it holds), we should be in position to make some big gains in 2006; the Presidential approval numbers, Congressional approval numbers, and Generic ballot numbers compare with those in late 1993, before the GOP sweep of 1994.
I base my assessment of where we can win on the district's partisan makeup (I assign a score based on averaging Gore's share of the 2000 2-party vote with Kerry's 2004 share plus one and then averaging that number with Charlie Cook's partisan voting index score), the incumbent's winning percentages in 2002 and 2004, and special circumstances surrounding the incumbent or known challengers.
I included: 1. any district where the partisan score was at least 45 (meaning generic R beats generic D 55-45 in a neutral year) and the incumbent won with less than 65% of the two party vote in 2004; 2. any district in which the partisan score was under 45, but the incumbent won with less than 60% in 2004; 3. any open seat in which the partisan score is 40 or above; and 4. 3 special circumstances: Ohio 18 (Bob Ney is connected to coingate), Pennsylvania 10 (Don Sherwood has a personal scandal and is facing a military vet challenging the GOP line on Iraq; potentially Hackett II in a less GOP district) and Florida 7 (Mica pulled only 60% in 2002 and then was unopposed last time). I also excluded Kentucky 4 and Washington 5, two 2004 open seats in GOP districts the GOPer won by over 10 points in 2004, and Ohio 2, where Paul Hackett looks unlikely to seek a rematch with Jean Schmidt.
Today, I focus on the eastern half of the midwest: West Virginia, Ohio, and Michigan. West Virginia, with three districts had no significant districting issues. Ohio and Michigan, on the other hand, are both GOP gerrymandering boondoggles. Both were designed exclusively by GOPers for political gain. Michigan flipped from a 9-7 Dem advantage to a 9-6 GOP edge, while Ohio was more an exercise in attempting to protect existing GOP incumbents, moving from 12-7 to 12-6 GOP under the new maps in 2002. These gerrymanders, like that of Pennsylvania, leave several districts with only small GOP edges--prime for the picking in a wave year. Especially in Ohio, where the GOP culture of corruption has made the Republican party "toxic" according to Charlie Cook. The districts:
West Virginia 02
This race was ably diaried yesterday here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/13/191747/073. The district is a central slice of the state, a belt of land from Berkeley Springs and Harper's Ferry in the Washington exurbs all the way west to the Ohio River town of Point Pleasant, where the Kanawha River flows into the Ohio. It has a partisan makeup of only 44.5% Dem, but GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is the first GOPer to represent it in decades and has never had an easy time of it. She won an upset in 2000, when Rep. Bob Wise left to become governor. The Dems nominated a multi-millionaire self-funder who was a crappy candidate in both 2000 and '02. Against an underfunded challenger in 2004, Capito took only 58% of the two party vote. She is still flirting with a quixotic Senate challenge to Robert Byrd. If Capito leaves the seat open, it will be one of the top pickup opportunities in the nation. Even if not, she's beatable.
Ohio
Ohio 01
The 1st Congressional District of Ohio includes almost all of Cincinnati, except for parts of its affluent eastern edge, plus most of the middle-class suburbs that cling to the woody hills west of I-71 and south of I-275. It covers the southwest quarter of Butler County plus the western parts of Hamilton County all the way to the Indiana border. The district is 48.8% Dem. It was a Dem seat until the sweep of 1994. That brought in Rep. Steve Chabot. He was targeted by Dems in 1996 and especially '98, when he ran against Cincy Mayor Roxanne Qualls. He's had some easier races as of late, especially since the 2002 redistricting. Chabot faced minor opposition in '02 and '04, taking 65% in '02 and 60% in '04.
Ohio 03
The 3d Congressional District of Ohio includes most of Dayton and all but the northeast corner of Montgomery County. The 2002 redistricting added the northern half of fast-growing suburban Warren County to the southeast, and mostly rural and small town Clinton and Highland Counties. It is a district that was net Dem until the redistricting, and held by the Dems until Rep. Tony Hall resigned in early 2002 to become Ambassador to the Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome. GOPer Mike Turner picked up the seat and has won with 59% in '02 and 62% last year. In a Dem year in this swing seat, we can mount a strong challenge.
Ohio 04
Much of central Ohio makes up the 4th Congressional District. It includes Lima, Findlay, Marion, and Mansfield. This is a strongly Republican district. The Dem percentage here is only 35.8%, making this a tougher district even than Ohio 02, which Paul Hackett came up short in a special. Nonetheless, the district makes the list because dKos poster Ben Konop shockingly held veteran incumbent Michael Oxley to a 59-41 win in 2004. With the current climate for Ohio GOPers coupled with the reasonable possibility that Oxley may retire, I am comfortable with leaving this district on the list. The other Ohio seats are probably stronger opportunities, though.
Ohio 12
The 12th Congressional District of Ohio is one of two districts dominated by Columbus and Franklin County. It includes 39% of the city, including most of the east side, plus the affluent suburb of Bexley and the northeastern suburbs in Franklin County. It also includes Delaware County directly north of Columbus, Ohio's fastest-growing county (up 113% from 1990 to 2004), and most of Licking County east of Columbus, including the small industrial town of Newark and the college town of Granville. This is a quintessential swing district; its partisan makeup is 48.8% Dem. The Congressman is Pat Tiberi, who was first elected in 2000 upon the retirement of John Kasich. He has not been seriously opposed since then, taking 64% and 62% the last two times. With a strong recruit, this will be a close race.
Ohio 14
The 14th Congressional District of Ohio takes in parts or all of seven counties of northeast Ohio and the old Western Reserve. It includes Lake County, northeast of Cleveland, with abandoned industrial sites and middling-to-affluent suburbs; and Geauga County, directly east of Cleveland, with prosperous suburbs. On the east end of the state are Ashtabula and the northern part of Trumbull County: industrial country. The district also includes the affluent suburbs at the eastern edge of Cleveland's Cuyahoga County, comfortable suburbs in northern Summit County and the northern tier of townships in Portage County to the east. The district is 47.5% Dem. It was held by the Dems until the 1994 sweep. Then GOPer Steve LaTourette picked it up and has held it easily since. His winning percentage decreased from 72-28 to 63-37 from '02 to '04, however, and this seat should be among those Ohio Dems should seriously contest in 2006.
Ohio 15
The 15th Congressional District of Ohio includes all of Columbus except the east side, plus southern and western Franklin County and once-rural Madison and Union Counties directly to the west. Like the 1st and 12th Districts, the 15th is a swing district that is 48.8% Dem. The incumbent is Deborah Pryce, a veteran who is in the house leadership. She is, in fact, one of three members of the House GOP leadership who could be vulnerable (along with Tom DeLay and Tom Reynolds). Pryce's winning percentage dropped from 67-33 in 2002 to 60-40 last year despite facing the same token opponent. Dem Mark Losey is already in the race and is a poster here.
Ohio 18
The 18th Congressional District of Ohio covers much of the hill country in eastern Ohio, from Holmes and Tuscarawas Counties in the north to Ross and Jackson Counties in the south. It is a rural district that is 43.8% Dem. The incumbent is Bob Ney, who also came in in 1994. He was unopposed in 2002 and won 66-34 over a token opponent in 2004. He, more than any other Congressional incumbent, is involved in the state scandals, however, and we may have a shot at him for this reason.
Michigan 07
The 7th Congressional District of Michigan covers all of five counties and parts of two others in Michigan's southern tiers. It is a traditionally GOP seat and we didn't seriously contest it when it came open in 2004. Nonetheless, it was carried twice by Bill Clinton and has a partisan makeup of 47.3% Dem. Joe Schwarz took 62% in the open seat race in 2004, outspending his challenger $750,000 to $8,000. With a serious candidate, we can give Schwarz a run before he becomes entrenched.
Michigan 08
The 8th Congressional District of Michigan includes all of Ingham and Livingston Counties, Shiawassee County south of Owosso, plus Clinton County directly north of Lansing and northern Oakland County. Its boundaries were determined by politics: After the 2000 Census Republicans controlled the redistricting process and in the 8th District they wanted to protect a freshman Republican elected by just 111 votes in 2000. So they removed Democratic-leaning Genesee County townships outside Flint and rural Washtenaw County townships that they felt might be infected by the adjacent liberal university town of Ann Arbor, and they added reliably Republican counties. The resulting district is one that is 47.5% Dem and the incumbent, Mike Rogers, won 69-31 and 62-38 against minor opposition in '02 and '04 respectively. With a strong challenge in a Dem year, Rogers can be defeated.
Michigan 09
The 9th Congressional District of Michigan includes a little more than half the population of Oakland County. It does not include Southfield, Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park or Madison Heights in the southeast--all heavily Democratic and part of the 12th District. It does include almost all of Royal Oak, all of Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills, Rochester Hills, Auburn Hills, Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield, Pontiac and Waterford Township. It is Michigan's most affluent congressional district, and also one that is trending toward the Democrats because of cultural issues. Bush's winning percentage decreased here between 2002 and 2004. The district is 49.5% Dem--the most closely divided in Michigan. The incumbent is Joe Knollenberg, who won 59-41 in both '02 and '04; the former against a well-funded challenge, the latter against a non-well-funded one.
Michigan 11
Like Gerlach and Murphy in Pennsylvania, then-State Sen. Thaddeus McCotter drew himself a district. The 11th Congressional District of Michigan covers much of the territory in western Wayne and Oakland Counties--Livonia and Redford Township just to the east, Westland and Canton Township, Northville and Plymouth, Novi and several fast-growing townships to the north and west. The lines were carefully drawn to produce a district that voted 51% for George W. Bush in 2000 and with the clear intention of electing a Republican congressman. The district is 48.5% Dem. McCotter has never been tested. He took 59% against a well-funded neophyte in '02 and then 58% against minor opposition in 2004. This is likely the Dems' best pickup opportunity in Michigan.