(From the diaries -- Plutonium Page.)
As many of you know, I've been writing about The Coming Pandemic since November. Hopefully, I've been doing it in a balanced way, trying to mix facts and calls for vigilance without undue hype and panic-mongering.
Trying to discuss bird flu is like talking about hurricanes. In advance of one, it may seem like hype, but after one hits, you can understand the concern. In fact, one can't predict when and where something like that will hit, just that it will eventually come. People on the Gulf Cost understand that now. Some (but not enough) people in government and academia understand that as well.
It is for that reason, in order to help folks with risk communication and personal preparedness, we helped start the Flu Wiki. It can act as a go-to resource for facts and informed opinion, not hype.
Speaking of hype, there's been a few diaries on this important topic that do seem a little edgy.
This one had some good discussion and properly takes Chertoff to task for going to an avian flu conference while Katrina was flooding. Chertoff should have been going to this conference; it's about time he took bird flu seriously. But Katrina should have forced him to do other than 'stay the course' and should have made him change his plans. And withing is an interesting discussion re the possible 'weaponizing' of avian flu (it does not lend itself to such - too communicable, not lethal enough).
This one contains talk about the political ramifications of avian flu: urban Dems may die in bigger numbers than rural Repubs and is that motivating response?
The fact is that an avian flu pandemic is uncontrollable - and that is the problem. Like in 1918, it has the potential to hit rich, poor, Dems and Repubs alike. It cuts across racial, economic and demographic lines, and actually puts young people (20 to 40) at far higher risk than ordinary flus. Old people and infants often die in 'regular' flu season 36,000 or so. But the huge potential here (1.5 million deaths in 1918 terms, when the US was a third the size it is now) is daunting.
The reality is bad enough without invoking conspiracy theory, if I may say so. Avian flu is scary. But the best way to approach it is to stick to the facts, share what we know and prepare at the local and personal level as best we can, while putting political pressure on the feds to get their act together. Chertoff should not be put in charge. The CDC should dust off their draft plan and release it (presumably, that's what Chertoff was reviewing during the hurricane).
That's as I see it, and that's what I truly believe.