Also known as "How to Win a Mandate Without the Votes")
As of this point, it appears that the good people of Germany have joined the United States in being unable to make up their minds at election time. After Gerhard "I'm not Jimmy Carter" Schroeder (just look at Germany's 12% unemployment and other domestic problems and you'll see why) called for a referendum on his seven-year administration back in May, Deutschland looked ready to give the ebuillent liberal the (jack?)boot. Luckily for Herr Schroeder, he drew the right-wing equivalent of Michael Dukakis-Angela Merkel, the CDU leader-as his opponent. Merkel started out with a 20-point lead a few months ago, and has proceeded to spectactularly squander it with a series of gaffes and poor campaigning skills. With returns essentially finishing up, it appears as if Merkel will finish barely ahead of Schroeder, with about 35% to 34% for the Chancellor. CNN has more on this at http://edition.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2005/german.election/
(More commentary by yours truly below)
Update [2005-9-18 18:23:5 by MrLiberal]:You can also find some damn good commentary from actual voters (and Europeans too)at http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2005/9/18/162629/424
As any German election follower knows, the Germans have a parlimentary system that has generally worked quite well. The major parties are Merkel's CDU (Christian Democratic Union) and Schroeder's SDU (Social Democratic Union). The SDU is left-of-center in Germany, the CDU right-of-center, although in US terms both parties are significantly more liberal than their "counterparts". Neither of the parties has ever been able to generate a majority on its own, even in a landslide, forcing them to turn to the 3rd parties for a coalition government. As in France, some 3rd parties are mostly in tune with the bigger parties, so coalitions are usually possible. Schroeder's ally is the Green Party (the "Red-Green" coalition) and Merkel's ally is the FDU (the "Black-Yellow" coalition). In 2003 Schroeder narrowly won a majority alongside the Greens, but this time it looked as if Merkel would become the first female Chancellor with her coalition in charge.
Not so fast, Ms. Margaret Thatcher-wannabe.
As of this writing, the Bundestag (the German equivalent of Congress) will likely keep a tiny plurality for Schroeder, even as he loses the popular vote. The German polling firm "Forsa" has the SDU with 223 seats and the CDU with 220. For both sides, that's a significant loss from 2003, when it was 251-248 for the SDU. With 302 seats needed for a majority, neither the Red-Green nor the Yellow-Black teams have enough seats in the parliment. The result? Organized chaos, essentially. For both major parties are attempting to take the other's 3rd party as part of a new governing coalition. Meanwhile, the Left Party (ex-Communists and socialist defectors from the SDU) is being excluded from all coalition talks due to the unpopularity of the new party amongst most Germans. As of right now, the Greens have 8%, as do the Lefts, while the FDU has 10%.
By doing the math, the incumbent coalition (SDU-Green) has 42%, the Merkel opposition 45%. Either side could win with the aid of the Left Party, but neither side wants it (it would be the equivalent of, say, Bush or Kerry trying to win votes by endorsing a Communist Party candidate). A "traffic light" coalition (Red-Green-Yellow) is considered a slim possibility, along with a Black-Yellow-Green coalition. If neither pans out, both the CDU and the SDU could form a "grand coalition"-not seen in Germany since 1966. But even if that's the case, then Angela Merkel will not get the Chancellorship.
Becuase Gerhard Schroeder isn't going anywhere. In his election night statement, Schroeder sounded as if he'd won a landslide. According to the BBC, "I do not understand how the [Christian Democratic] Union, which started off so confidently and arrogantly, takes a claim to political leadership from a disastrous election result," (Schroeder) said. "The result today shows that the country will have Gerhard Schroeder as chancellor." True, his coalition took a beating, but so did the Merkel coalition, and he feels as if his political comeback (from 2o points down) gives him a new lease on life. In a contest of wills, Schroeder's dynamic personality wins out anyday against Merkel's somber, even dull demeanor.
That's why my prediction is as follows: watch the new few days closely, and see how a liberal with cajones overwhelms his opposing party and keeps his job-even as he narrowly loses the vote of confidence he requested. My bet is that Schroeder forms the "traffic-light coalition" and sticks it to the conservatives, and that Germany's economy (which is making a few gurgling sounds right now) will begin to pick up again in a year or two. Schroeder's reforms are causing pain right now, but the economic long-term goals he has envisioned are still on track to be successful (read "Plan 2010" in English; it's got wonderful ideas on how to make liberalism work in the modern world).
The next few days in Germany will be chock-full of intrigue and deal making-and when it is all said and done, the greatest upset in political history since "Truman defeats Dewey" will have occurred. Herr Schroeder, keep on playing that piano.
Update:"SDU" should read "SPD" in all above areas. I should've let Jerome a'Paris take this issue on...