On Friday, I posted the fourth in what will be a series of profiles of potentially vulnerable GOP seats. That diary included Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. It can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/16/14460/8925. The third installment covered West Virginia, Ohio, and Michigan. It can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/14/181441/929. The second covered New York and Pennsylvania and can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/13/182810/480. The first included New England and New Jersey and can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/12/193114/114
NOTE: The following three paragraphs have appeared in the previous diaries; if you've read those, skip ahead.
Based on the national climate (if it holds), we should be in position to make some big gains in 2006; the Presidential approval numbers, Congressional approval numbers, and Generic ballot numbers compare with those in late 1993, before the GOP sweep of 1994.
I base my assessment of where we can win on the district's partisan makeup (I assign a score based on averaging Gore's share of the 2000 2-party vote with Kerry's 2004 share plus one and then averaging that number with Charlie Cook's partisan voting index score), the incumbent's winning percentages in 2002 and 2004, and special circumstances surrounding the incumbent or known challengers.
I included: 1. any district where the partisan score was at least 45 (meaning generic R beats generic D 55-45 in a neutral year) and the incumbent won with less than 65% of the two party vote in 2004; 2. any district in which the partisan score was under 45, but the incumbent won with less than 60% in 2004; 3. any open seat in which the partisan score is 40 or above; and 4. 3 special circumstances: Ohio 18 (Bob Ney is connected to coingate) and Pennsylvania 10 (Don Sherwood has a personal scandal and is facing a military vet challenging the GOP line on Iraq; potentially Hackett II in a less GOP district). I also excluded Kentucky 4 and Washington 5, two 2004 open seats in GOP districts the GOPer won by over 10 points in 2004, and Ohio 2, where Paul Hackett looks unlikely to seek a rematch with Jean Schmidt.
In this installment, I look at winnable seats in the 13 Southern states--the 11 former Confederate states plus Kentucky and Oklahoma. I have identified 12 seats in this region. They are in Virginia (2), North Carolina (2), Florida (4), Alabama (1), Kentucky (1), Louisiana (1), and Texas (1). Of these states, Florida, Texas, and Virginia, all have GOP gerrymander maps. Florida and Texas are among the nation's worst. North Carolina and Alabama are Dem maps. They shored up the Dem incumbents in those states and, in each case, drew one additional seat for the party. The Dems hold that seat in North Carolina, but do not in Alabama (see below). Louisiana is a bipartisan incumbent-protection plan. Kentucky is a bipartisan plan making few changes to the previous map. A 13th seat would have been Phil Gingrey's Georgia 11, but with Georgia's DeLay-style re-redistricting, that seat is likely safe.
The districts:
Virginia 02 (Thelma Drake)
The 2d Congressional District of Virginia includes all of Virginia Beach. It also includes parts of Norfolk and Hampton with mostly white residents, including the Norfolk Navy base and Langley Air Force Base and, on a spit of land in the bay, Fort Monroe, where Jefferson Davis was confined after the Civil War. It also includes a more placid area, the two Virginia counties of the Delmarva Peninsula, Virginia's Eastern Shore, site of the annual roundup of wild Chincoteague ponies; these rural counties with their fishing villages are two of the state's poorest. The district is only 43.8% Dem, but it was represented for years by conservative Dem Owen Pickett. Pickett retired in 2000 and was replaced by GOPer Ed Schrock, who won 52-48. Schrock was unopposed in 2002 and looked to coast over his challenger, David Ashe, in 2004, until he suddenly retired amid Gannon-like rumors. He was replaced by Drake on the GOP ticket. The Dems (as in Pennsylvania 08) stuck with Ashe. Ashe (like Ginny Schrader) ended up losing. Here, the margin was 55-45. This remains a winnable district and a shot at Drake should be taken this time before she becomes entrenched. The military nature of the district would seem to make it a perfect fit for a Hackett-style veteran candidate.
Virginia 11 (Tom Davis)
The 11th Congressional District of Virginia consists of much of Fairfax County and most of Prince William County. The district straddles the Capital Beltway and includes Tysons Corner. Inside the Beltway are Baileys Crossroads and Annandale; beyond are Vienna, Fairfax, much of Springfield, Burke, Clifton, Centreville, part of Mount Vernon. In Prince William County it includes Woodbridge and Dale City and stretches west to Haymarket. This district is trending Dem as much as any in the nation; it is among the handful of districts in which Kerry outperformed Gore. Its partisan makeup stands at 48.5% Dem. Tom Davis is a 1994 GOPer who is a former NRCC chair. Since his first race, he has not taken under 60%. After running unopposed in 2002, however, Davis faced a token Dem in 2004 and won only 60-38. With the trend in this district, it would not be surprising if a strong Dem knocked off Davis in 2006.
North Carolina 08 (Robin Hayes)
North Carolina's 8th District is in the central Piedmont region. The most populous county in the district is Cabarrus County, which includes the southern end of the textile corridor around Kannapolis and Concord. The 8th extends east to include part of Fayetteville's Cumberland County, which casts 19% of the vote, but stops short of including the heavily military neighborhoods just outside the gates of Fort Bragg. The irregular boundaries of the district have a political explanation--Dem redistricters included as much of the Democratic Sand Hills as they could, but removed most of Union County, a fast-growing and heavily Republican area just east of Charlotte. And they added central city precincts in Charlotte and Mecklenburg County with some blacks and some affluent white liberals. This district is 46.5% Dem. The incumbent is Robin Hayes, who picked up this seat when Dem Bill Hefner (a 1974 Watergate baby) retired. Hayes has been a Dem target since then, taking only between 54-56% each time. The Dems already have an Iraq veteran in the race against him. Hayes will be a top target.
North Carolina 11 (Charles Taylor)
The 11th District of North Carolina includes the western end of the state, including Asheville's Buncombe County, which accounts for one-third of the votes. Only 5% of the voters in the district are black, the lowest percentage in any district in North Carolina; 1.5% are Native Americans. For a long time, the partisan balance here was close, and for a dozen years the 11th was one of the nation's most closely contested districts, throwing out incumbents in five of six elections between 1980 and 1990. But in the last dozen years, coinciding with an influx of retirees in the mountains south of Asheville, it has tilted Republican. In 2004, however, it gave George W. Bush a slightly lower percentage than it did in 2000. It currently is 42.8% Dem. The incumbent is Charles Taylor, no stranger to corruption scandal. As a result, he has underperformed his party here and created an opening for Dems. He won 57-43 in 2002 and 55-45 in '04. This year, he has a celebrity challenger: former Redskins quarterback and Asheville native Heath Shuler. It will be interesting.
Florida 08 (Ric Keller)
The 8th Congressional District of Florida includes parts of Orlando and surrounding Orange County and most of the enormous Walt Disney World complex, including the Disney new urbanist town of Celebration. It includes most of the southeast and southwest parts of Orlando and adjoining suburbs; the heavily black areas of central Orlando are in the 3d District, which stretches all the way to Jacksonville. More than three-quarters of the district's residents live in Orange County. The rest live in a ribbon of territory to the northwest, past Lake Apopka to little market towns like Mount Dora and Umatilla in Lake County that seem insulated from the booming metro area. Nearby is Silver Springs. Beyond that is Marion County, around Ocala. This has been a GOP seat for years; Clinton impeachment manager Bill McCollum represented this district until he left it to run for the Senate in 2000. That year, the Dems got a top candidate but Keller won 51-49. He has since faced token opposition and won 65-35 and 61-39. This is a longshot, but winnable under the right circumstances.
Florida 09 (open seat)
The 9th Congressional District of Florida covers part of the area north of St. Petersburg and north and east of Tampa. It includes the string of towns on the coast of Pasco County--Holiday, New Port Richey, Bayonet Point, Hudson. In Pinellas County to the south, the 9th includes Tarpon Springs, East Lake, Oldsmar, Safety Harbor and Clearwater. The district also includes the northern Tampa suburbs in Hillsborough County and much of the eastern part of the county, including part of Plant City. It is 45.5% Dem. The longtime incumbent, Michael Bilirakis, is retiring and attempting to hand the seat off to his son, state legislator Gus Bilirakis. It is unlikely, however, that the GOP will let the younger Bilirakis have a clear field. The Dems have a well-funded evangelical candidate in the race, Greg Rublee. This could be an upset.
Florida 13 (open seat)
The 13th Congressional District of Florida runs from just below Tampa Bay to Charlotte Harbor, north of Fort Myers. It includes all of Sarasota County, which accounts for just over half the district's population, and all of lightly populated, rural DeSoto and Hardee Counties, most of Manatee County to the north and an adjoining sliver of Charlotte County to the south. This district was drawn specifically for Katherine Harris in exchange for handing W. the keys to the White House. She won here twice, 55-45, but is leaving it for a loser Senate campaign against Dem Sen. Bill Nelson, Harris' first stop on her way to the dustbin of American history. The district is 45.5% Dem, and is winnable with the right candidate.
Florida 22 (Clay Shaw)
The 22d Congressional District of Florida covers most of the Atlantic oceanfront in Palm Beach and Broward Counties, from Jupiter in Palm Beach County to Fort Lauderdale in Broward County. It is rarely more than a few miles wide and in some places it is not much wider than the barrier islands separated from the mainland by the Indian River and Lake Worth. But it also has jagged salients that extend several miles inland. The district, a testament to the advances made in redistricting software, was drawn by Republican redistricters to provide a safer seat for Republican Congressman Clay Shaw after he barely won reelection in 2000. The Miami-Dade County portion of the district was removed, as was heavily Democratic Hollywood in Broward County. Inland salients in Broward County brought in Republican precincts in Plantation and Coral Springs. Much new territory was added in Palm Beach County--an inland finger in wealthy Boca Raton, a long strand parallel to the oceanfront of affluent areas from Delray Beach to Glen Ridge (here the 22d surrounds the heavily black 23d district on three sides) and an inland slice in north Palm Beach County including parts of Palm Beach Gardens and Jupiter. The resulting district is affluent, elderly, with a large Jewish population. Despite the GOP's best efforts, the district is still 53.3% Dem, and Shaw's neck is still potentially on the block. He won 61-38 against controversial Palm Beach county election commissioner Carol Roberts (remember her?) in 2002 and 63-35 against a placeholder in 2004. With a strong challenge in 2006, Shaw's luck may run out.
Alabama 03 (Mike Rogers)
The 3d Congressional District of Alabama is centered geographically and perhaps spiritually in Lineville. The military presence is unmistakable: Calhoun County is home to the Anniston Army Depot and formerly home to Fort McClellan, which survived several rounds of base closings until it was finally closed in 1999. There are other places of distinction in the 3d: Tuskegee, home of Booker T. Washington's Tuskegee Institute; Auburn, home of Auburn University and its renowned sports teams and veterinary school; Talladega, home of the Alabama Institute for the Deaf and Blind, which is perhaps America's most user-friendly city for the disabled. NASCAR fans know it as the home of a famed speedway and for the International Motorsports Hall of Fame--the Cooperstown of auto racing. This looks and feels like rural country, though few people here make a living off their farms. Instead, they drive to work at Tyson Foods or Wal-Mart or in dozens of small- or medium-sized factories. This is a GOP district the Dem redistricters attempted to flip in 2002, when it was open. They increased the African American percentage from 25% to 32%. The district is now 45.8% Dem. In 2002, Rogers faced Dem Joe Turnham and narrowly won, 51-49. He won a far less serious challenge in 2004, 61-39. With a strong challenge in a Dem year, Rogers is beatable.
Kentucky 03 (Anne Northup)
The 3d Congressional District of Kentucky includes all but a dozen or so precincts of Louisville-Jefferson County. There is a large black population in the West End of Louisville and just south of the old city limits and a lower-income white population along the strip highway that leads to Fort Knox. The suburbs to the east tend to be affluent; little elite neighborhoods--Mockingbird Valley, Glenview, Ten Broeck--nestled in the hills above the Ohio River. In the 1990s Louisville, like so many bigger metro areas, trended toward the Democrats, even as the rest of Kentucky trended Republican. The 3d District voted by narrow margins for Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004, while the state's other five districts all voted twice for George W. Bush. The district is 51.8% Dem. Despite the fact that it is easily the most Dem district in Kentucky, Anne Northup defeated a weak Dem incumbent in 1996 and has been stubbornly turning back high-profile challenges ever since. She won 60-38 last time, after never breaking 55% previously. Still, Northup has never run in a strong Dem year (1996-2000 were all slightly Dem). She should be beatable.
Louisiana 07 (Charles Boustany)
The 7th Congressional District of Louisiana covers much of the Cajun country, from Lafayette and the Atchafalaya west along I-10 to Lake Charles and the Texas border. Refineries and oil-field support industries provide many jobs, as do the rice and crawfish farming fields. Some 21% of the population claims either French or French Canadian ancestry. This is a traditionally Dem seat, despite its current partisan score of only 42.3% Dem. John Breaux held it before his election to the Senate. Its most recent Dem congressman, Chris John, left it to run for the Senate in 2004. Boustany won the open seat 55-45, becoming the first GOPer to do so since 1884. No word on whether John wants to reclaim his seat, but even without him, the Dems should make a strong showing.
Texas 22 (Tom DeLay)
The 22d Congressional District of Texas includes more than two-thirds of Fort Bend County, including Sugar Land; in the 2003 redistricting, small pieces along the border with Harris County were moved to the new 9th District, and helped to elect the new black Democrat. It also includes one-quarter of Brazoria County, centering on fast-growing Pearland, just south of Houston, plus parts of Galveston County including Santa Fe, La Marque and Hitchcock. Nearly one-half of its residents are in Harris County: working class Deer Park, Pasadena and LaPorte south of the Houston Ship Channel; and the more upscale Webster, Clear Lake and Taylor Lake Village surrounding the Johnson Space Center. Overall the district's population is 61% Anglo, 9% black, 20% Hispanic and 8% Asian. Politically, the 22d District remains Republican, but not quite so heavily as before the 2003 redistricting; DeLay felt safe and move some of his base into other districts. It is 35% Dem. DeLay himself is the reasons Dems have a shot at a win that would feel better than any other. Dodging indictments and ethics probes, he is the symbol of an out of touch party drunk on power--and his constituents are noticing. He won only 55-41 against an unremarkable challenger in 2004. Now, he is facing Nick Lampson, a former Dem Congressman who was displaced by the DeLay gerrymander (he lost to Rep. Ted Poe in the new 2d District in 2004). This should be a tight one.