UPDATE, 02:00 a.m.: Rita is steadily getting worse. The NHC is now predicting she will be Cat 4 later today.
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Hurricane Rita is entering the Gulf of Mexico as I write this. She navigated the Straits of Florida, without weakening, and has instead intensified.
Over the next few hours, she is likely to tip her hand, giving us some insight into the next few days. Rita is on the edge -- though small, she has strengthened steadily and rapidly since 8:00 a.m. EDT this morning.
As do we all, I hope to God she falls apart. Below the fold, I'll give you some clues about what to watch for, so you can ignore over-hyped and irresponsible television forecasts.
A hurricane's
central pressure (CP) is a simple and very effective measure of its strength. Over at
the ePluribus Media Community site I'm keeping a running table of Rita's CP, from each 3-hr NWS advisories going back to last night. If you'd like to see the progression, follow the link above.
Starting with the 8:00 a.m. NWS advisory, Rita's CP began decreasing rapidly -- about 1-2 millibars/hour. The difference between a weak hurricane and a strong one is only about 50 millibars, so 1-2 millibars/hour for any length of time spells trouble.
Katrina briefly made landfall in Florida, weakening her quite a bit. But she made it through to the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico where she stalled and gained strength.
Rita, however is a 'small' storm in the sense that hurricane force winds only extend outward from her eye about 50 miles. That's roughly 1/3 the size of Katrina. While that is usually good news, it's allowed Rita to slip right in-between Florida and Cuba. She is now southwest of the keys and moving west, and while many hurricanes lose strength during this passage, Rita's central pressure dropped from 978 to 973 mb between 2:00 and 5:00 p.m.
The fact that she is not a big storm may be the best news of all, however the GOM has been warmer than normal for the last 6 weeks. Hurricanes feed off warm surface waters -- that is why what happens next is so important.
If Rita stalls and sits around in the GOM, she will likely strengthen. Over the next few hours watch for 2 things in particular:
- Keep track of Rita's CP. If it continues to drop, or stays the same and then drops suddenly, that spells trouble.
- See if Rita slows and hangs around the Gulf before making landfall. That will give her time to strengthen.
Hopefully, neither of these will happen. If Rita's central pressure levels out and she keeps moving, she'll probably end up making landfall near eastern Texas as a weak Cat 2 or Cat 1.
To those of you along the Gulf coast, my thoughts and prayers are with you. Be safe and pay attention to the NWS. They'll have the best information of anyone. Also, DO NOT make any decisions concerning your safety based on my opinions. Though I have studied meteorology, I am in no way qualified to forecast the weather, severe of otherwise.
UPDATE, 8:00 p.m. EDT:
Rita continues to strengthen, with her CP deepening to 969. She slowed slightly to 12 mph and continues to enter the GOM.
UPDATE, 11:00 p.m. EDT:
Hurricane Rita is still technically a Category 2 hurricane, but barely. Rita is predicted to reach Cat 3 by tomorrow morning and Cat 4 by tomorrow night. In the last 3 hours, Rita's central pressure dropped another 4 mb to 965 mb. She is currently still moving relatively quickly at ~13 mph.
UPDATE, 02:00 a.m. EDT:
Rita continues to develop and become increasingly dangerous. At 2:00 a.m. EDT 9/21/05, her CP is now 960 mb, continuing a steady 1-2 mb drop from nearly 24 hours. Rita is officially a Cat 3 and the NHC is prediciting she will reach Cat 4 later today.