On Tuesday, I posted the sixth in a series of profiles of potentially vulnerable GOP seats. That diary included Iowa, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, and Nevada. That diary can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/20/183725/454. The fifth installment covered the Southern states and can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/19/16250/0529. The fourth installment covered Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. It can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/16/14460/8925. The third installment covered West Virginia, Ohio, and Michigan. It can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/14/181441/929. The second covered New York and Pennsylvania and can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/13/182810/480. The first included New England and New Jersey and can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/12/193114/114
NOTE: The following two paragraphs have appeared in the previous diaries; if you've read those, skip ahead.
Based on the national climate (if it holds), we should be in position to make some big gains in 2006; the Presidential approval numbers, Congressional approval numbers, and Generic ballot numbers compare with those in late 1993, before the GOP sweep of 1994.
I base my assessment of where we can win on the district's partisan makeup (I assign a score based on averaging Gore's share of the 2000 2-party vote with Kerry's 2004 share plus one and then averaging that number with Charlie Cook's partisan voting index score), the incumbent's winning percentages in 2002 and 2004, and special circumstances surrounding the incumbent or known challengers.
I included: 1. any district where the partisan score was at least 45 (meaning generic R beats generic D 55-45 in a neutral year) and the incumbent won with less than 65% of the two party vote in 2004; 2. any district in which the partisan score was under 45, but the incumbent won with less than 60% in 2004; 3. any open seat in which the partisan score is 40 or above; and 4. 3 special circumstances: Ohio 18 (Bob Ney is connected to coingate) and Pennsylvania 10 (Don Sherwood has a personal scandal and is facing a military vet challenging the GOP line on Iraq; potentially Hackett II in a less GOP district). I also excluded Kentucky 4 and Washington 5, two 2004 open seats in GOP districts the GOPer won by over 10 points in 2004, and Ohio 2, where Paul Hackett looks unlikely to seek a rematch with Jean Schmidt.
In this final regional installment, I focus on the southwest and the west coast--NM, AZ, CA, OR, WA, AK, and HI. Of these states, four have target races. We already hold both seats in Hawaii, and I don't see opportunities in Oregon or Alaska. Of the remaining states, New Mexico has a judicially-drawn map which contains one Dem seat, one GOP seat, and one swing seat. Arizona's map was drawn by a bipartisan commission and has two strong Dem seats, three strong GOP seats, and three swingy seats (although one is clearly GOP-leaning). California has a Dem map designed to solidify and consolidate gains Dems made in the late 1990s. By and large, almost no districts in the state are swing districts. Washington has a map drawn by an independent commission which, as usual, created a lot of closely divided districts.
On to the Districts:
New Mexico 01 (Heather Wilson)
The 1st Congressional District of New Mexico includes Albuquerque and some of its suburbs. It takes in most of Bernalillo County and stretches into the desert to include sparsely populated Torrance County. But the 1st does not include most of big-growth suburbs Corrales and Rio Rancho to the north in Sandoval County, and Isleta and Las Lunas to the south in Valencia County: this leaves it more Democratic than it would otherwise be. The 1st is 43% Hispanic. It voted 48%-47% for Al Gore in 2000 and 51%-48% for John Kerry in 2004. Overall, it is 51.8% Dem. Despite this, it continues to be held by anti-nipple crusader Heather Wilson. Wilson won the district in a 1998 special election to replace former Rep. Steven Schiff, who died in office. Here is one place I tend to blame the Greens. Wilson won the special 45%-40%, with 15% for the Green candidate; in November 1998, she won again, 48%-42%, with 10% to the Green. Since then, Wilson has crept over the 50% mark, winning 55-45 in 2002 and 54-46 in '04. She should be a top target again.
New Mexico 02 (Steve Pearce)
The 2d Congressional District of New Mexico covers the southern part of the state, going as far north as the suburb of Las Lunas and the Isleta Pueblo south of Albuquerque and the Acoma Pueblo to the west. Demographically and politically, it is diverse. It includes most, but not all, of New Mexico's Little Texas--majority Anglo and solidly conservative, though with a Democratic heritage. It includes Las Cruces and the mining counties in the southwest corner of the state; Las Cruces is politically marginal and the mining counties Democratic. And it includes the Indian country around the pueblos, which is strongly Democratic. The district was 47% Hispanic in 2000, the highest of any New Mexico district, and 5% Indian. But more of the Hispanics are ineligible to vote here than in the 1st or 3d Districts. This is easily the most Republican of the three New Mexico districts. Its partisan rating is 43.5% Dem. The incumbent is Steven Pearce, who won it in 2002 when Joe Skeen retired. The Dems strongly challenged Pearce in both 2002 and 2004. Pearce won 56-44 in '02 and 60-40 last time. In a big Dem year, however, an upset is possible.
Arizona 01 (Rick Renzi)
The 1st Congressional District of Arizona includes over half the state and is larger than Pennsylvania. It covers most of northern Arizona, except for Mohave County and the Hopi Indian Reservation and a narrow band of land connecting them. It reaches south to the northern edges of the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas. The 1st is the home of the nation's largest and fastest-growing Native American population: 22% of its residents identify themselves as Native Americans. There are many reservations here--Fort Apache, San Carlos, Zuni--but by far the largest is the Navajo Nation in the northeast. The Hopi are excluded because they have a long and angry boundary dispute with the Navajo and agreed to be part of the 2d District. The Hualapai and Havasupai are also carefully excluded. Most of the Navajo are in (oddly) Apache County, with the rest in Navajo and Coconino Counties. The 1st District was designed to be closely divided between the two parties. Its partisan score is 47.8% Dem. The copper mining counties (Greenlee, Graham, Gila) are historically Democratic and still register that way, but tend to vote Republican. Apache County, with its Navajo majority, has been heavily Democratic; Coconino County, which includes Flagstaff, part of the Navajo Reservation, the college town of Flagstaff and New Age haven Sedona, is increasingly Democratic. Prescott and Yavapai County are heavily Republican. This seat was one of the two newly created, incumbentless districts in Arizona following the 2002 reapportionment and remap. That year, GOPer Rick Renzi beat a relatively unknown and underfunded Dem who unexpectedly won the crowded primary, 52-48. Renzi faced a highly touted but truly awful candidate in 2004 and won 62-38. With an actual strong candidate, this will be a close race.
Arizona 05 (J.D. Hayworth)
The 5th Congressional District of Arizona includes Tempe, Scottsdale and the northeast corner of Maricopa County--Fountain Hills, the Salt River and Fort McDowell Indian Reservations and part of the Tonto National Forest. Politically, this is a Republican district, though not quite as much as it was a dozen years ago; some affluent people here, like so many in coastal metropolises, have been attracted to the Democrats by their stands on cultural issues. It is currently 45.5% Dem. Thus, this district barely makes the list. The incumbent, J.D. Hayworth, is a loud, obnoxious Gingrich-DeLay foot soldier who is a product of the 1994 debacle. He was heavily targeted in 1996 and 1998 (winning one of the closest elections in the country in 1996), but has coasted since then. His margins in his new district have been 61-39 and 63-37. In a very big year, this seat could be an upset.
Arizona 08 (Jim Kolbe)
The 8th Congressional District of Arizona includes all of Tucson except the Latino west side that is in the 7th District. The 8th also includes the eastern half of surrounding Pima County and much southeastern Arizona desert real estate: All of Cochise County (including Tombstone and Bisbee), Douglas and Sierra Vista near Fort Huachuca, site of the Army Military Intelligence Center, the training site for military interrogators; and very small portions of Santa Cruz and Pinal Counties. Politically it is closely divided, voting narrowly for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. It is overall 48.3% Dem. Its incumbent is longtimer Jim Kolbe. Kolbe had an unexpectedly close race in 1998, winning 52-45. Since then, he has won more comfortably, 65-35 in '02 and 68-32 in '04. Still, this is a district trending Dem, and could well be the site of an upset in a strong year.
California 11 (Richard Pombo)
The 11th Congressional District of California includes much of the Central Valley area directly east of San Francisco plus the Bay Area suburbia of San Ramon Valley in Contra Costa County. The central part of Stockton is not in the district; rather, it is connected by a thin corridor to the 18th District further south in the valley. But the 11th does include northwest Stockton and most of the rest of San Joaquin County--Tracy, Lodi, Manteca. Connected to this is the adjacent town of Brentwood in Contra Costa County, the fastest-growing city in the Bay Area in the 1990s. The farm town of Morgan Hill anchors the far southern edge of the 11th in Santa Clara County. The San Ramon Valley towns--Danville and San Ramon in Contra Costa County and Dublin and Pleasanton in Alameda County, are much more affluent than the Central Valley parts of the district. Politically, both parts are Republican. The political heritage of the Central Valley is Democratic, but it has been moving toward Republicans on cultural issues and on farm interests' hostility to environmental restrictions. The San Ramon Valley is the most Republican part of the Bay Area, but not very Republican by national standards, fairly liberal on cultural issues but conservative on economics. This district voted 54% for George W. Bush in 2004. The district overall is 46.5% Dem. Pombo has not run up big margins here despite outspending his opponents in a big way; he won 60-40 and 61-39 the last two times. With the right candidate, he can be defeated.
California 26 (David Dreier)
The 26th Congressional District of California covers this territory in the San Gabriel Valley. It includes, east of Claremont, the newer San Bernardino cities of Upland, Montclair and Rancho Cucamonga. It also includes the new suburb of Walnut to the south and, far to the west, connected by the San Gabriel Mountains, the mountain-enclosed suburb of La Canada-Flintridge. Historically, the towns running east from Los Angeles have been heavily Republican. But many of these towns now have large Hispanic and Asian populations--Arcadia, San Dimas and Walnut have sizable Chinese populations--and have become Democratic. The communities in the 26th District, however, have remained pretty heavily Republican, even San Marino, whose population was 49% Asian in 2000. George W. Bush won 55% of the vote here in 2004. The district is 45.5% Dem overall. The incumbent is David Dreier, the chairman of the House Rules Committee. Why is he on this list? In 2004, fueled by a campaign by local radio DJs, a token Dem held Dreier to a 54-43 win. It remains to be seen whether that close call will lead to a stronger challenge in 2006, but stranger upsets have occurred.
California 48 (open seat, special election: first round Oct. 4, 2005, runoff Dec. 6, 2005)
The 48th Congressional District of California is exclusively located in Orange County and is centered geographically on the Irvine Ranch lands. Politically, this is a conservative area, and for a long time it was one of the most Republican districts in the United States. In the 1990s, like most of metro Los Angeles, it trended to the Democrats, but it is still Republican, but far from the most Republican district in the state; it voted 58% for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. Overall, it is 41.5% Dem. The incumbent, Chris Cox, left to become SEC chairman. There is a special election coming up in which the Dems are united (I think) behind Steve Young, a strong candidate. The Republicans have several candidates running. If anyone gets 50% +1 outright in the open October election, they win. Otherwise, the top votegetters from each party advance to a runoff in December. While this is a GOP district, it is far less so than Ohio 02, where Paul Hackett just took 48%.
California 50 (open seat)
The 50th Congressional District of California covers a portion of San Diego County. About 40% of its population is in the city of San Diego, including most of scenic La Jolla, hillside Clairemont, Carmel Valley and University City to the west and, north of Miramar, Mira Mesa, Rancho Penasquitos and part of Rancho Bernardo. About 25% are on or near the coast, from Del Mar, where a 1,000 foot pier was opened in 1917 but washed away in 1926, to Encinitas and Carlsbad, home of the La Costa resort. Just inland is affluent Rancho Santa Fe, with its multi-million dollar mansions set amid rolling hills and lush greenery. About 30% of the people are in Escondido and San Marcos. Politically, this is Republican territory, more so as one gets away from the coast; it voted 55% for George W. Bush in 2004. Overall, it is 44.8% Dem--the same as the open Minnesota 06. The incumbent, Randy "Duke" Cunningham is leaving the House and is quite possibly going to jail. The cloud surrounding Randyduke, coupled with the dismal approval ratings of both Bush and Schwarzenegger, has presented an opportunity for the Dems in this GOP-leaning district.
Washington 08 (Dave Reichert)
The 8th Congressional District of Washington includes most of the eastern edge of metro Seattle. It includes most of Bellevue, Mercer Island and the affluent suburbs on Lake Washington--Medina, Clyde Hill, Yarrow Point, Hunts Point, Beaux Arts. It also includes the suburbs to the south in King and Pierce Counties. It goes east to the crest of the Cascades Mountains and includes all of Mount Rainier. This is the most affluent district in Washington, rivaled only by the 1st; politically it is market-oriented on economics, more liberal on the environment and other cultural issues. Historically it is Republican, but George W. Bush lost this district twice, with 47% of the vote in 2000 and 48% in 2004. Its partisan score is 52% Dem. This district was represented until 2004 by GOPer Jennifer Dunn, who in 1993 was the only Republican in the nine-member delegation. Dunn retired in 2004, and the swing 8th was the site of one of the hardest fought contests in the country. Reichert won 52-47. He will be a top target in 2006.