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SEP 26, 2005 / 11:45 AM

                    REMNANTS OF RITA HEAD FOR GULF COAST
 TROPICAL WAVE  CARIBBEAN MAY BECOME DEPRESSION WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS
            AND STORM INTO GULF OF MEXICO BY END OF WEEK

Though still showing only a weak reflection in the mandatory level charts, the remnants of RITA, currently
embedded within a much larger upper level TROF are clearly moving southeast towards the Florida Panhandle
as evidenced on Radar. (see Below)

The GFS shows the system moving into the Gulf and developing some -- but there does not yet seem to be the
type of upper level support it would need to truly re-generate into a tropical storm.  However, what isn't in Rita's favor
is quickly becoming in favor for a strong Tropical wave moving fairly quickly  through the central Caribbean now,
and is showing some signs of better organization, with some slight but significant surface pressure falls in the
central Caribbean.

As mentioned yesterday evening, there are 2 large upper air TROFS from the central Atlantic extending
southwestward into the tropics.  One is to the east of the developing Wave, on is to the west, over the far
NW Caribbean.  Between the 2 systems, we end up with an generally anticyclonic flow, which favors
outflow aloft.    What appears to be happening based on water vapor loop imagery is the formation of
a closed low aloft over the western Bahamas north of Cuba, while at the same time, there may be a
simultaneous developing of a high pressure system above the developing wave - and this is
crucial - independent of the larger scale antic-cyclonic flow across the tropical wave that is
 occurring between the 2 major upper level TROFS.  If there is a developing anti-cyclone within the waves
own circulation field, then the system will likely develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  

On the latest Visible image loop there are hints of a broad low level circulation trying to form near 14N/73W.
In general  the entire disturbance is heading WNW at 15Kts, and will likely be about 100-200 miles south of
Jamaica by Tuesday morning assuming it does in fact develop by then into a a tropical depression.

As it moves northwest - towards the far NW Caribbean and Yucatan Channel by Thursday -- conditions
aloft are forecast to become more favorable for development, and a we could have the next tropical storm
of the season by that that time.  The speed of development will depend a lot on whether the system is in
fact developing it's own upper level outflow pattern.

The next update on this system - and if need be, the remnants of Rita, will be tomorrow morning - unless
conditions warrant an update earlier.  IOW - if the system system develops into a a tropical depression
sooner rather than later)

Steve

Steve Gregory        
WeatherInsite
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PIX 1 - The remnants of RITA - 'hidden' with an upper level TROF in the form of a strong VORT Max, is
heading southeastward into the Florida Panhandle, and has in fact broken away from the bulk of it moisture and upper
level circulation field that got pulled to the northeast yesterday.  The GFS does show this system moving into the Gulf
and re-generating.  This is VERY similar to IVAN - and if it actually happens, NHC gets o decide if the evidence supports
calling it RITA, or making it a new system.  The evidence to me - IF IT EVEN HAPPENS -0 is clearly this is Rita.
But overall, the system coming from the Caribbean will dominate the broader circulation field, and I don't think at this time,
Rita will attain Tropical Storm intensity before the Caribbean system starts to over power whatever is left of Rita.

This mornings VIS imagery shows a TINY bit of banding and low level circulation trying to develop within the strong tropical wave.
Microwave analysis (not shown) indicates there arte some curved bands of strong and deep convection around this system, though
NOT yet organized enough to call this a depression.

Water Vapor image shows 2 main areas of heavy convection with the Tropical Wave.  But based on the microwave
and VIS images -- the westerner area of convection is closest to the circulation field that is trying to
form near 14N/73W.  The upper level TROFS are the elongated areas of DRY air along 50W
and 40N/60W down to 22N/63W -- with the new development of a closed upper cyclonic low located
between SE Florida and the Cuban coast.  The net result is a an anticyclonic flow aloft over
the Tropical Wave, that does seem to be developing it's own upper level anti-cyclone system.

 

The outflow itself is good in the WNW quadrant and to the southwest - but is hindered in the eastern semicircle.  HOWEVER,
note carefully that there is now a closed anticyclone feature centered just north and east of Puerto Rico.  If this displaced
outflow center manages to get vertically aligned with the wave, a tropical cyclone will likely form.  That upper low
north of Cuba - if it continues drifting westward, actually is enhancing the outflow channel trying to
developing in the northwest quadrant of the wave.

At the moment, shear values remain high 12-14 Kts.  But this could drop significantly
during the next 24-48 hours if the anticyclone center near Puerto Rico either aligns
itself with the lower level wave, or if the developing wave manages to develop it's own outflow
center at high levels.

The 12Z model runs -- very few were run for this system -- though if it continues to develop, this evening
we will se the normal complement of models show the system tracking northwestward - with 22 models
moving it towards the northwest Caribbean, and 3 others, over Jamaica in 36 hours (early Tuesday evening).

As the system is still very shallow, I prefer the BAMS and CLP5 models that keep the system south of Jamaica.
Either way, a period of heavy, gusty showers and squalls will buffet the Island on Tuesday.  Conditions to
not seem favorable enough yet for rapid development, and the system should not attain Tropical Storm force
until it passes by Jamaica itself.

The few intensity forecasts available to bring the system up to  hurricane intensity in 3 -4 days.
If this happens, and the system reaches the Yucatan Channel -- the Gulf of Mexico will
once again have a storm to deal with.

Originally posted to WeatherInsite on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 10:29 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  WHY DOES THE TITLE HAVE TO BE IN UPPER (2.14)
    CASE??  CAN'T WE TALK WITHOUT SHOUTING ALL THE TIME?!?!??!?!

    (Brought to you by the Committee To Be Less Shrill About Everything)

    The most important lesson of Katrina is that there are things that are worse than taxes.

    by RequestedUsername on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 10:30:34 AM PDT

    •  Heh (4.00)
      The image with the orange and red is absolutely beautiful.

      "When you starve the beast, you starve the people. And the bathtub was a reference to New Orleans." -- bink

      by bink on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 10:34:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Notice the Stars (none)
      Diary Titles and Subject Lines can't be bolded (* bolded *) , no matter how hard one tries (geeks excepted).

      Katrina Changed Everything - A New Era Demands New Policies

      by ROGNM on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 10:45:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  O My God BECAUSE IT'S (none)
      a POSSIBLE depression, if it becomes "probable" or "inevitable" the font will have to explode.
      ----------------------------------

      "If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about the answers." - Pynchon

      by HairOnFire on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 10:59:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Normally, not necessarily big news... (4.00)
        ..but this particular "possible" depression, happens to reside over the "hottest" real estate in the tropics these days, the SW Carribean.  Go check out the sea surface temp charts, and notice how warm the SW Carribean is right now (over 90 degrees in some places).  It's crazy temperatures like these that allowed Katrina and Rita to super-explode into Cat 5 hurricanes in a matter of a day or two.

        In other words, if upper atmospheric conditions permit, this next tropical disturbance could very well become yet another major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

        People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people.

        by viget on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 11:15:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Not hype (none)
        The qualifier of 'possible' is always used before a tropical cyclone is actually formed.  And I thought it worth posting on this site only because it represents a potential threat to the Gulf of Mexico -- which doesn't need any kind of potential threat at all.  It was news worthy IMHO.

        And when the NHC models forecast it to become a hurricane in 72-96 hours --0 I felt comfortable advising more than just my clients.

        Steve Gregory WeatherInsite

        by WeatherInsite on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 07:34:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  its standard (none)
      Its a standard formatting for weather reports given by manned stations.

      If you want to see some fun stuff, try deciphering the unmanned reports.

      Wooh.*

      Private pilots have to deal with this for personal flight-path weather information.

      Pattern is his who can see beyond shape: Life is his who can tell beyond words.

      by cnflght on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 11:04:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hey Ingrate, Are You Growth-stunted Hall Monitor? (3.40)
      An absolutely fantastic diary, full of useful information and graphics, and the only thing some people can do is criticize the type size and style for the title!  What a jerk and ingrate!

      Leads me to belive someone cannot comprehend the content of the diary.  Probably too technical and complicated.

      You must be a growth-stunted hall former hall monitor.  

      •  look in the mirror (none)
        Come on, it was a reasonable post. Sure, the upper-case is standard format for this sort of report, but not all realize this. Viget responded very well, i think. You did not. Thanks for the update, Steve.

        "You know everybody was wondering, but he had the balls to ask." – Jon Stewart, after... you had to be there

        by subtropolis on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 12:13:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Typing in Caps ---I apologize for the mechanics (none)
      My CAP entries are because the faster way for me to get the entry onto Dkos is by ding a copy n'paste from my updates that go out to clients, and as posted on the weather underground.

      You may notice that EVERYTHING from the NHC, NWS etc arrives in all 100% upper case.  It is part of the 'historical lingo' associated with the weather forecasting profession.

      Any other areas of my posts where CAPS are used are when using acronyms for technical products or terms, and are the accepted norm for such things.

      If I wanted to YELL OUT LOAD -- you would notice it.

      Sorry for the perception this has left, I simply don't normally have the time to 'de-edit' such things.

      Steve Gregory WeatherInsite

      by WeatherInsite on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 07:29:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm already looking at reservations... (none)
    to get out of Jefferson Parish. I'm sort of getting used to this, which is scary in and of itself.
  •  Hey, I appreciate what you are doing (4.00)
    Type in all caps if you want to.

    The Christian Right is neither Witness Every Day

    by TXsharon on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 10:37:22 AM PDT

  •  Rita paid us a visit last night (none)
    And dump some much needed rain over Detroit.

    Logic would dictate that there can be no more powerful hurricanes in the Gulf this year, but I also otld someone early last week that it was impossible for Rita to reach a Category 4 or 5 status. I think this year, all bets are off.

    Steve, if you are reading this, how do you feel about rating hurricanes the same way tonadoes are rated, by the destruction they leave behind? Katrina was officially a Cat 4 when she landed, but she left destruction worthy of a Cat 5, just as I think Rita left damage worthy of a 4.

    "We must all hang together or assuredly we will all hang seperately." - Ben Franklin

    by RandyMI on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 10:39:02 AM PDT

    •  CAT RATING of Storms (none)
      Rating them as Tornadoes is actually very similar in some respects, but I wrote a diary entry speaking to the clearly antiquated Saffir-Simpson CAT Rating system earlier this month that speaks to this entire issue.  It REALLY NEEDS TO BE CHANGED!

      Yes, now I was shouting :-))

      Steve Gregory WeatherInsite

      by WeatherInsite on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 07:43:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  this diary (none)
    really needs more charts.
  •  They just discussed this on MSNBC. (none)
    Uuuggghhhh!
  •  FWIW... (4.00)
    ...to those not familiar with Steve, DarkSyde has invited him to post tropical updates here on DailyKos when he gets the time.  Steve is a professional meteorologist that now does weather consulting for various entities, and has a blog on tropical weather at weatherunderground.com.  He's been an invalauble source of tropical updates this past hurricane season, and has really been ahead of the CW with both Katrina and Rita (as he's not limited to the every 6 hour updates that come from the NHC).  I certainly appreciate his information and taking his time to post stuff over here at DailyKos, so please cut him some slack with regards to the title and such stuff (it's the same title he uses over at wunderground).

    Oh, and he was the source of most of DarkSydes' updates for Rita this past week.

    Granted, I am and always have been a meteorlogical geek, but I really like the content he brings to DailyKos, one of the reasons I stick around here is not just for the politics, but the invaluable professional knowledge base Kossacks have.  It's really becoming an efficient information distribution service.

    People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people.

    by viget on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 11:10:50 AM PDT

  •  Steve (none)
    If you have time, can you comment on the huge Typhoon?  I read yesterday that "experts" are dismissing global warming again as a factor, saying that if these conditions were really caused by global warming, there should've more typhoons this season.  Last year, there were I believe 29, I think so far this year around 21.  The predictions are that this 2005 season will be 'typical', in the range of 17-27 typhoons.

    I'm no scientist, but is it conceivable to have stronger and less typhoons?  Or even stronger and less hurricanes, with the global warming syndrome as a factor?

    thanks.

    Bush has got to go. Keep surfin, keep rockin, Baja Margie alias Pargie

    by Pargie on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 11:32:51 AM PDT

    •  Typhoon frequency is different than Intensity (none)
      Much has been in the press that global warming has somehow increased the number of storms we are seeing.  Most of the press, however, has alluded to the intensity of the storms as being greater than normal.

      The LATTER is most likely correct.  There is not sufficient evidence, or even a really good reason to theorize, at this point in the earth's warming, that MORE storms would develop.  What is very likely, is that the above normal water temps ARE making the storms that do form, more intense.

      This is an important distinction.  And while not 100% proven, there is sufficient quantitative evidence that this is true.

      Steve Gregory WeatherInsite

      by WeatherInsite on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 07:40:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  formatting... (none)
    ...can we get the text formatting fixed on this entry, i.e., get rid of the hard carriage returns scattered throughout the paragraphs?  As it currently exists makes for difficult reading.

    Thanks!

    Although the masters make the rules / For the wise men and the fools / I got nothing, Ma, to live up to. (Dylan)

    by teedz on Mon Sep 26, 2005 at 11:38:34 AM PDT

  •  Spinner out at Sea? (none)
    At NOAA, the imagery shows a spinner centered at about 30N, 55W . Thats probably what, 1500 miles off shore right? Anybody know any good websites where one can learn meteorology?
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