The conference board's
Consumer Confidence survey Index took a huge hit this month, the first after Katrina. In advance of today's announcement most watchers had anticipated a drop to a 95ish level, instead it dropped to 87 from 105. The lowest level in the last two years.
Although not unexpected, the 17 point decline is larger than the hit after 9/11.
Additional bad news comes in the form of New Home Sales for August were down 9.9% and July's numbers were revised downward as well. The Northeast and West Coast Markets were hit especially hard at 22% and 18% declines respectively.
More below.
From the
Conference Board's statement.
"Hurricane Katrina, coupled with soaring gasoline prices and a less optimistic job outlook, has pushed consumer confidence to its lowest level in nearly two years (81.7 in October 2003) and created a degree of uncertainty and concern about the short-term future," says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. "Historically, shocks have had a short-term impact on consumer confidence, especially on consumers' expectations. Fuel prices remain high, though they have retreated in recent days, and when combined with a weaker job market outlook, will likely curb both confidence and spending for the short-run. As rebuilding efforts take hold and job growth gains momentum, consumers' confidence should rebound and return to more positive levels by year-end or early 2006."
A deeper look at the survey results brings up other not so positive news. Job outlooks and future expectations also took hits. In general it was kind of a depressing report.
The concerns by many on dKos, high energy bills this winter, higher gas prices, uncertainty about the future seem to be reflected by the nation as a whole. This will most likely lead to more conservative personal spending, which in turn will lead to more economic bad news. It can be a self fufilling prophesy.
The drop in new home sales is troubling as it is one the best performing sectors of the economy.
In addition to the nearly 10% drop in sales, inventories of houses started but not sold, have steadily been increasing through 2003 2004 and 2005. At the current sales pace, there is nearly a 5 month supply on the market. In all new homes and existing home sales are doing very well but showing signs of a decline. September's numbers due next month will interesting as they will reflect the impact of higher fuel prices.