Really bad news on global warming
Thu Jan 13, 2005 at 08:00:45 PM PDT
If you think the weather's bad now, just wait a few decades...
In the last few weeks, some new and very disturbing research on global warming has come out. If this research is correct, then global warming may turn out to be a much more serious problem than anyone had previously imagined (this is partly taken from wilfred's earlier diary that slipped off the main page quickly).
Here's the gist: the sun is getting dimmer. Well, it's not actually getting dimmer itself, but for the last fifty years, less and less light has been getting through the atmosphere because of pollution from burning fossil fuels. From the
BBC:
Comparing Israeli sunlight records from the 1950s with current ones, Dr. Gerry Stanhill was astonished to find a large fall in solar radiation.
"There was a staggering 22% drop in the sunlight, and that really amazed me." Intrigued, he searched records from all around the world, and found the same story almost everywhere he looked.
Although the effect varied greatly from place to place, overall the decline amounted to one to two per cent globally every decade between the 1950s and the 1990s.
Why? Pollutants like soot, sulfur compunds, and ash from burning fossil fuels block the suns rays.
Now, this could be a good thing. Less light getting through = less global warming. In a sense, that's true, but there is a very disturbing implication of this research. What this means is that the strength of global warming is much, much stronger than we had previously guessed. We've only detected a bit of warming so far. 1 degree Fahrenheit in the last 100 years. This new research says: if not for the effects of atmospheric dimming, we'd be getting warmer faster. A lot faster.
Ok, you're saying, so what? If pollutants slow down global warming, then that's good. Well, here's the rub (from the BBC again):
As things stand, CO2 levels are projected to rise strongly over coming decades, whereas there are encouraging signs that particle pollution is at last being brought under control.
"We're going to be in a situation unless we act where the cooling pollutant is dropping off while the warming pollutant is going up."
So, while we're cleaning up the nasty particulate pollution that causes asthma, lung cancer, etc., we may be dramatically increasing the rate of global warming.
And it gets even worse. If we cut our fossil fuel usage we may actually make planetary temperatures soar!. Here's how it works:
- we reduce our usage of fossil fuels
- CO2 levels decrease, but only slightly at first because CO2 stays in the atmosphere a long time once it gets there
- levels of pollutants that dim the sun decrease more quickly because they don't stay in the atmosphere as long
- the effect of the decreased CO2 is dramatically outweighed by the increased strength of the sun and temperatures go up, up, up
The researchers say cutting down on the burning of coal and oil, one of the main goals of international environmental agreements, will drastically heat rather than cool climate.
[snip]
Take away fossil fuel by-products like sulfur dioxide without tackling greenhouse gas emissions, and the extra heat will speed warming, irreversibly melting ice sheets and rendering rain forests unsustainable within decades, Dr Cox said.
So, with respect to fossil fuels, the primary driver of global warming, it may almost be inconsequential whether or not we cut emissions because global warming may be too powerful. One caveat: this is new research, so this isn't certain yet. But if it turns out to be true, we (and I use this in a planetary sense) may be in big trouble.
Temperatures could increase in the worst case by up to 10 degrees by the end of the century, the researchers said -- much more than current estimates.
That's 10 degress Celsius. Which is 18 degrees Fahrenheit. The current best estimate is that we'll warm 2.5 to 10 degrees F in 100 years. Even at the lower end of that range, we're likely to have massive problems from drought and heatwaves to more severe storms and higher sea levels. 18 degrees higher and it's the end of the world as we know it...
Here's the really ironic part. Now, instead of denying global warming, the anti-environmentalist right-wingers will surely say, "look we can't cut fossil fuel emissions because we'll fry the planet." They'll go from denying it exists to embracing the latest research.
The good news is that the sooner we act, the better, and it's not necessarily too late. We need to:
- sign the Kyoto protocol
- start negotiating the next climate treaty
- embark on a Manhattan project for non-polluting, renewable energy sources, and
- pour as many resources into climate research as we can. The more we know, the better we'll be able to make things better.
Resources and information:
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