Quinnipiac Univ. 4/12-18. MoE 4.7%. (April 7 results)
Specter (R) 49 (52)
Toomey (R) 44 (37)
Toomey is well funded for the stretch run, has the support of every big-name conservative and the election is only a week away. Odds are he'll win this one. He's got the strong support of the who's who of the conservative movement -- Forbes, Bork, Norquist, Dobbs, and so on. Toomey's people are motivated to oust a senator they consider a RINO -- Republican in name only.
CW was that Toomey would be an easier candidate to beat in the general, but I'm not so sure. He's run a great, fearless campaign. He's firing on all cylinders. And any candidate ousting a sitting Senator will be a force to be reckoned with.
At this point, I'm actually hoping for a Specter victory. Specter will be broke and bloodied. He's been so demonized by Toomey (who morphed Specter into Kerry in an ad) that it may hurt Specter's ability to get Republican votes and money in the general. (The Q poll has the numbers -- only 57 percent of Toomey voters would vote for Specter in the general if their guy loses.)
Toomey is much further right than the PA electorate, but ideology oftentimes takes a back seat to well run campaigns and a good story. Toomey has both. And our candidate, Hoeffel, still hasn't made much of a mark in the state. A March 15 Q-poll noted that 70 percent of PA voters hadn't "heard enough" about Hoeffel.