As we discuss the question of who will become the Democratic presidential nominee
three years from now it's instructive to note that the typical POTUS comes out of nowhere. To illustrate: at this point in 1973, Jimmy Carter was an all-but-unknown Governor of Georgia. Over the course of the next 3 years, Carter would come out of nowhere to win the Iowa caucuses, win the Democratic nomination, and win election as POTUS. At this point in 2001, Howard Dean was an all-but-unknown Governor of Vermont. Over the course of the next 2 years, Dean would become the Democratic frontrunner.
Just to help get the point across, here's what the last 20 presidents were doing ten years before they were elected (or in GWB's case, selected):
Grover Cleveland in 1882: Newly-elected Mayor of Buffalo. Unknown outside of his home state.
William McKinley in 1886: U.S. Representative from Ohio. Unknown outside of his home state.
Theodore Roosevelt in 1891: Civil Service Commission member, unsuccessful NYC mayoral candidate. Unknown outside of New York City and North Dakota.
William Taft in 1898: U.S. Circuit Judge. Complete unknown.
Woodrow Wilson in 1902: President of Princeton University. Complete unknown.
Warren Harding in 1910: Former Lt. Gov. of Ohio, unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate. Unknown outside of his home state.
Calvin Coolidge in 1913: State legislator in Massachusetts. Unknown outside of his home state.
Herbert Hoover in 1918: Head of the American Relief Administration. An exception: internationally known.
Franklin Roosevelt in 1922: Former VP candidate, former Asst. Sec. of the Navy. Complete unknown.
Harry Truman in 1935: Newly-elected U.S. Senator from Missouri. Unknown outside of his home state.
Dwight Eisenhower in 1942: U.S. Army Lt. General. Unknown outside the U.S. Army.
John Kennedy in 1950: U.S. Representative from Massachusetts. Unknown outside of his home state.
Lyndon Johnson in 1954: U.S. Senator from Texas, Senate Minority Leader. An exception: one of the country's top-ranking Democrats.
Richard Nixon in 1958: VPOTUS. An exception: internationally known.
Gerald Ford in 1964: U.S. Representative from Michigan, Warren Commission member. Unknown outside of his home state.
Jimmy Carter in 1966: Georgia state senator. Unknown outside of his home state.
Ronald Reagan in 1970: Governor of California, ex-movie actor. An exception: nationally known due to his former acting career.
George Bush in 1978: Former CIA Director, former envoi to China, former Ambassador to the U.N., former RNC Chairman, former U.S. Representative from Texas. Unknown outside of Washington, D.C.
Bill Clinton in 1982: Former governor of Arkansas. Unknown outside of his home state.
George W. Bush in 1990: Son of the POTUS, owner of the Texas Rangers. Unknown outside of his home state.