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From It Affects You

Despite the recent shrill attacks from Jeanine Pirro, Hillary Clinton is looking solid in NY.

From the latest Marist Poll, September 2005

Do you definitely plan to vote for Hillary Clinton for re-election as U.S. Senator or do you definitely plan to vote against her?

Definitely Vote For  52%
Definitely Vote Against  32%
Depends Who Runs  8%
Unsure  8%

In head-to-head match ups against the two top Republican challengers:

Hillary Clinton  59%  (50%)
Jeanine Pirro  35%  (28%)
Undecided  6%  (22%)

Hillary Clinton  61%   (66%)
Edward Cox  34%  (26%)
Undecided  5%  (8%)

Jeanine Pirro's main (and pretty much only) strategy thus far has been to launch shrill attacks at Hillary Clinton.  Her primary line of attack, of course, has been that Hillary will run for president in 2008.

According to the same Marist Poll, New Yorkers respond: Yeah, so what?

During Hillary Clinton's re-election campaign for the U.S. Senate, do you think she should pledge to fulfill another six year term and not run for president in 2008, or should she not make such a pledge?

Should Pledge  37%
Should Not Pledge  53%
Unsure  10%

Do you think Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2008 or not?
Will run  54%
Will Not run  34%
Unsure  12%

More than half of New Yorkers already assume Clinton will run, yet she is trouncing Pirro as well as all other possible challengers.  Pirro's campaign is turning into a giant money pit.  Her shrill attacks against Hillary play well with the national Clinton haters, but they ring hallow in New York.  Pirro is going to raise and spend a lot of money to finish a distant second.

Btw, the same Marist Poll has Eliot Spitzer very comfortably leading all challengers as well.

From It Affects You

Originally posted to up2date on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 02:26 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I can't believe it!!! (none)


    •  Add "Crafty Politician" (4.00)
      Unlike NYC, upstate New York is fairly "red" and HRC has been very quietly winning them over and erasing her controversial national image among them.  A lot of those folks are now scratching their heads and wondering, "Why again was it that we were told we should hate her guts?  And why are people still picking on her, anyway?"

      Meanwhile, she's also been playing nice with moderate Repubs in the Senate and the House, again steadily erasing her bad reputation among all but the most extreme.

      She's also been mostly staying silent and out of the limelight about national issues, staying very centrist and she's mostly held her fire regarding BushCo.  This has gotten her a very poor reputation among some Progressives who want a more strident, leaderly candidate in '08.  And then there are others who believe that she's still too divisive and controversial.

      I think HRC is just waiting until after the '06 mid-terms when Dems are likely to gain some ground, perhaps even retake the majority in the Senate.  After that, I think she'll gradually begin appearing on the national stage with increasing frequency and voicing stronger opinions, but using the same techniques/framing that have won over the moderates and conservatives in New York.  By the time she officially declares for President, she'll have the nom and probably the general election locked up and people will be talking about it for years as the greatest comeback ever in the history of American politics.

      Progressives encourage dissent to improve society through constructive engagement. Conservatives encourage dissent to identify and silence the traitors.

      by sxwarren on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 02:49:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  totally agree (4.00)
        Most people here would like to see hellfire and brimstone rhetoric from the leading Dem politicians. I'm glad that Hillary isn't following suit.

        People forget that her own husband, the beloved Big Dog, was chair of the much-reviled DLC in 1990. If it wasn't for Clinton and Dick Morris' strategy of triangulation, would we have had a two-term Clinton presidency?

        •  but he listened to dick morris (none)
          the clintons believe in an economy based on large corporations making decisions and the money being fed down to a small business sector. the problem with this theory is - large corporations are always trying to raise their entry cost by manipulating their business model - whether it be by healthcare cost, government regulation, or buying your competition. but large corporations are primarily raising their entry cost by buying the u.s. government ie cable, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, agriculture and etc. my problem with the clintons is they also buy into this nepotism type government. we need laws that benefit the small business and  middleclass. because to everyone's disbelief, demand rules, the supply and demand curve and not - supply
        •  Completely agree (none)
          Clinton gets begrudging respect and admiration throughout the region, even in deepest blood red Oswego and Lewis counties.

          All Clinton has to do in Oswego county is adamately stress that she does not endorse nor want any legislation limiting snowmobiles and will not under any circumsances save for national emergency, move to confiscate any legal shotgun or deer rifle.  She does that, she's in.

          "same old fears, same old crimes-we haven't changed since ancient times.." "Iron Hand" Dire Straits

          by boilerman10 on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 05:54:59 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, she is very smart (3.50)
        I have to admit, Hilary is one smart politician. Her and her husband too. They get into races they know they can win and then win them(which is probably why Bob Shrum wasnt working on either the 92 or 96 campaign). I dont know if things will work out exactly as you say, but I dont underestimate Hilary Clinton.  

        So rumor has it that President Bush is drinking again. Sure, why not, he's got everybody else drinking.-Dave Letterman

        by jj32 on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 03:18:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hillary (none)
          in my opinion, Hillary's appeal for a presidential run in 2008 is because we'd all like to see Bill back in the WH, even as first lady.  Bill has notg been looking well lately.  Suppose he died before 2008, do you think that it would have a dramatic impact on Hillary's bid for the presidency?  I do.  
      •  That's a stretch (none)
        to call upstate NY "red." In 1996, Clinton-Gore carried every one of New York's then-31 congressional districts vs. Dole-Kemp--including Kemp's old district.
        •  Upstate is scarlet-red (none)
          I live in Tom Reynolds' district, and it is an automatic seat for the GOP (was Kemp's, then Paxon's, now Reynolds'). In my county the GOP has a 2-1 registration advantage over the Democrats, and it is hardly unusual to have that situation upstate. (It is true that NY Republicans tend not to be wingnuts, but that trend is starting to turn, as Rockefeller Republicans die off.)

          That being said, Hillary really has charmed people around here.

          •  Upstate (none)
            Republicans do rule a lot of Counties in upstate, but the majority of upstate is in the counties around the big 4 cities, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany, none of which have gone Republican in a presidential election since 88, Erie (Buffalo) and Albany county haven't gone Republican since 72. You throw in other counties where Democrats do well, Broome, Niagara, Cayuga and Tompkins and Upstate is basically a swing state.
            •  Oops (none)
              I left off Schenetady and Rensselaer in the Counties where Dems are strong Upstate.
            •  swing state (none)
              If upstate NY (excluding Rockland and Westchester) were a separate state, it would be America's 13th most populous state, and a nice swing state prize.

              However, I suspect you're slightly off on the time frame -- I don't believe that the Syracuse metro area went Democratic until Clinton in '92, and probably the Rochester area as well.  Since then, they have not looked back.   These cities were definitely Reagan Democrat country; they bought the whole Morning in America thing hook, line and sinker.  Well, around '96 or so they realized morning was not, in fact, coming.

              •  '92 was the first time since Kennedy (none)
                Syracuse used to be the home of arch conservative groups and noted individuals like NY patriot's Society guru, the late Stephen Rogers who was publisher of the Post Standard for years and years on end, old man Jaquith was another sour puss rightie and a cabal of other wingers so out there that not even hard line R's would trust them.

                As the demographics changed and poverty gripped the city more and more strongly the D's became far more powerful.  The late, popular local columnist and friend of mine I am proud to say, Bob Haggert used to call the local D's "The Pavlovian Society."  Times have changed, and I think Bob would probably like it.

                The townships around the city are rather red, though DeWitt and Fayetteville seem a bit more blue.  The rural areas are red, but open to good ideas generally, and Democrat turned Republican Nancy Larraine Hoffman, was a fine example of this willingness to ignor wingnuttery that has no place, and does nothing to help you out on the farm.  Too bad Hoffman was stabbed in the back by the pubbies, she seemed pretty good.

                "same old fears, same old crimes-we haven't changed since ancient times.." "Iron Hand" Dire Straits

                by boilerman10 on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 06:52:22 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  I've heard Spitzer is (none)
            well liked among Republican too. Hopefully, with both of them on the ballot, we can take a house seat or two.

            So rumor has it that President Bush is drinking again. Sure, why not, he's got everybody else drinking.-Dave Letterman

            by jj32 on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 04:08:14 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  upstate (none)
            Maybe rural upstate is getting red, but I would really not agree with the characterization of upstate as scarlet-red, and GOP registration everywhere in the state is falling, even in rural areas.  

            See this map of declining trends in GOP enrollment in New York State.  Not pretty.

            See the corresponding map for Democratic Party enrollment.  Not great either, but not as bad as the GOP's predicament.

    •  Hillary ain't no moderate (none)
      She's not as liberal as conservatives think she is nor is she as moderate as liberals think she is.

      Is she moving to the middle to run for President? Absolutely. But so is EVERY Democrat and Republican running for President. Of course when she does it she's "scheming" or "plotting" her run to the middle. moooohooohoooohaaahaaaaahaaaaa.

      ==== The More You Know *

      by ZT155 on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 08:33:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pirro is using (none)
    pretty much the exact playbook Lazio used last time.  It will probably fail bigger this time around.

    If you like this comment, please visit It Affects You -- Ross

    by up2date on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 02:32:49 PM PDT

  •  Spitzer is kicking ass (4.00)
    My goodness, he leads Weld by 42 points! The candidate who comes closest is Thomas Golisano, who trails 61-26.

    This is going to be a good year for NY Dems.

    •  state senate (none)
      What are the chances of taking back the state senate? I've heard some good stuff about it...I mean we have complete control of the assembly, but for some reason the senate has been republican for a long time...not sure of what our chances are.


      by michael1104 on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 02:42:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  But but but (4.00)
      (Jumping up and down screaming)
       I want  Eliot Spitzer for Prez! ;)
      Anyone who says;
      "You think you can intimidate me? Screw you. Choose your Weapon." is my kind of candidate!

      (-7.50 -6.31) If the Republicans will stop telling lies about the Democrats, we will stop telling the truth about them. --Adlai Stevenson

      by arkdem on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 03:38:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It'll happen I think (none)
        just not in 2008.

        So rumor has it that President Bush is drinking again. Sure, why not, he's got everybody else drinking.-Dave Letterman

        by jj32 on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 03:45:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  eliot spitzer is just a checking account (none)
        he has let every large corporation pay their way out of trouble. when big business feel that they can buy government and thus buy their way out of trouble - you produce a corporate mentality of how much do i have to pay. so when we live in an age of making entry cost so high that the common man cannot compete - why don't we want to drive the anderson accounting group out of business?
  •  Hey... (4.00)
    Hil is a good Senator for her constituents...

    One might disgree with her national politics, but she's in and around the state doing a good job of what a Senator is supposed to do...represent the people of New York.

    I'm voting for her relection...maybe I won't in the primaries, but she's got my 2006 vote definitely.

    •  Plus, you'll end Pirro's career (4.00)
      Jeanine Pirro was a rising star in the NY party who could perhaps have won the atty gen's office and run for Senate or Governor down the line. But if Democrats turn out on e-day and bury Pirro under a 60-40 landslide, her career is over.
      •  Very true (4.00)
        I'd say Pirro would have had an excellent shot at AG, and if she won that, she'd be in position to challenge for the governor's mansion at some point down the road.  Now, she'll not only have this expensive loss on her record, she'll probably be remembered by most New Yorkers for being shrill.

        If you like this comment, please visit It Affects You -- Ross

        by up2date on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 02:51:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I know we all have our issues with Hilary (4.00)
    but I'm really looking forward to her being re-elected, just to see the expression on Sean Hannity's face come election day 2006.

    So rumor has it that President Bush is drinking again. Sure, why not, he's got everybody else drinking.-Dave Letterman

    by jj32 on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 02:52:12 PM PDT

  •  Bill Weld's flip-flop (none)
    well, one of them at least. When asked who he wuld root for in this weekend's Sox-Yanks series he said the Yankees!! As Tagean Goddard noted at politicalwire, he wont be let back into Boston now.

    So rumor has it that President Bush is drinking again. Sure, why not, he's got everybody else drinking.-Dave Letterman

    by jj32 on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 02:54:07 PM PDT

    •  Oh, the irony! (none)
      Remember how savagely Rethuglicans attacked Hillary in 2000 for carpetbagging her way into the New York Senate race? Since then, we've had Alan Keyes running for Senate in Illinois, and now Bill Weld running for governor in New York.

      Should we assume that Republicans voted against carpetbaggers before they voted for them?

      Thwarting the forces of conservatism since 1978.

      by wiscmass on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 05:07:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  i love hillary as a us senator (none)
    however, i would not vote for her in the primaries. also, i loved bill as a president, however, i would like to see someone else as president than a bush or clinton for the past 20yrs. also, if hillary is scheming during the worse leadership crisis in our nation - why should anyone want her to be president. i like hillary, but i just do not think i want to relive the 90's - i need someone to pull america back together. america is hurt right now and i do not think another scheming politician does us any good. let's get a true leader in office and not someone that is an expert at being a politician
  •  Hillary in '06, '08 &'12 (4.00)
    She is, clearly, one of the most skilled and intelligent politicians in Washington.
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