The Washington Post has reported that conservatives see Harriet Miers' nomination as "a betrayal of years of struggle to move the court to the right," noting that Bush "risks the biggest rupture with the Republican base of his presidency" (from the amazing
Political Wire).
So, should the Democrats use their 45 Senate votes to corner the Republicans by forcing a vote on Miers? I think so. Here's why:
If Bush loses his base over Miers his approval numbers will go into freefall. A wildly unpopular Bush will be easier to investigate and easier to impeach. The goal: Reveal the depth of his corruption and inflict significant collateral damage on the Republican coalition in the process. This is a ready-mage, textbook wedge.
And from what I've seen the hard right's response to Miers' nomination is only getting more vociferous. Witness Dobson's recent
recanting. An enemy of Dobson is a friend of mine. Bush, to my surprise and delight, has nominated someone
perfectly suited to alienating his paleo-conservative base!
If we support Miers unenthusiastically, what happens? First, she could be confirmed overwhelmingly. We could easily avoid that result (say a 99-1 vote) by toning down support and withdrawing votes if things start to go that way ("Upon further examination of Ms. Miers' record I have come to the sad conclusion that it is not wise..."). We don't want an overwhelming confirmation vote because it would lend Miers the (very false) appearance of legitimacy.
Second, it could be a close vote. Would a 51-49 confirmation with most of those votes coming from Demorcats be an embarrassment to Bush? Oh yeah. It could be devastating, more a stake to the heart than a wedge in the coalition. A narrow loss might not be as good. That could give Bush a chance at redemption with a new pick. But a narrow loss would also further reveal Bush as weak and rudderless.
Finally, Miers could go down in flames. Perhaps not the most advantageous outcome strategically, but I'd take some serious pleasure out of seeing Bush's nominee going down in a 3-97 vote as this would further tarnish Bush as out of his depth.
I suspect Bush's best move is to withdraw the Miers' nomination and cut his losses. That doesn't seem like his modus operandi (to say the least). Still Democrats can play their hand close to the chest to try to keep that from happening.
It appears, then, that we can't lose if Miers gets that "up or down" vote that's so sacred to Republicans. Bush has given us a way to further our agenda, reveal the illegitimacy of his presidency, undermine his remaining support, and he's nominated a potential Souter. Of course, he doesn't deserve to nominate any Supreme Court Justice, but this really seems like a gift from the Bush administration.
Props of course to Senator Reid, who seems to have set Bush up perfectly. We could do nothing and just let Bush twist in the wind, but why not have some fun with him?