The
Chicago Tribune has just released a new poll showing that Bush's approval rating in Illinois is down to 33%, and that furthermore, the loss of support is statewide, including the quite conservative downstate region
This
article is on the front page of the early edition of the Sunday Trib; I assume that unless something big happens today, it'll also be on the front page of the final edition tomorrow morning.
Illinois sours on Bush
Iraq, economy drive job approval down to 33%, stir fear in state GOP
Headline. To be honest, I'm somewhat surprised that there's enough life left in the state GOP to feel anything, including fear. That's a biased Chicago perspective, though.
Pessimism over the war in Iraq and skepticism about the economy at home have cost President Bush support among the most reliable segments of Illinois Republicans, a Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows, and now nearly 6 out of 10 voters statewide disapprove of his job performance.
He's starting to lose support among
Republicans. While Bush can't run again, this means that running against Bush-by-proxy in the Congressional races next year will likely be a very fruitful strategy.
Support for Bush has dropped 14 points in the last year among Republicans, and GOP officials fear that could complicate their efforts in next year's races for Congress and governor. For the first time in his presidency, half the voters in Chicago's Republican-rich collar counties disapprove of Bush's job performance, a departure from last fall when he carried all five suburban counties.
For out-of-staters, the collar counties are the region just outside the Chicago area, and have typically been a transition zone between very Democratic Cook county (Chicago) and very Republican downstate. The collar counties have started to swing towards D in the last few years, though. They're still R, but less so than in years past.
The heart of the GOP in Illinois is in the downstate region, the southern half of the state. Even there, trouble lurks:
In addition to Bush's low standing among voters in the collar counties of DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will, 54 percent of voters Downstate now say they disapprove of his performance. Downstate voters generally are more conservative and have in the past been more supportive of Bush. But his disapproval rating among those voters has climbed 12 percentage points since May.
Downstate Illinois is representative of a
lot of Red State America. If Bush is losing the downstaters, it's indicative of some real problems. Again, he's not running for reelection, but the local Congresscritters
are. This sort of trend means that GOP Reps are going to be somewhat less enthusiastic about following the White House off the cliff-of-the-day. And Karl Rove doesn't get indicted until
next week.
What emerges most clearly from the survey is a growing disdain for the war, with 64 percent saying they disapprove of how Bush is handling Iraq. Four out of 10 Illinois voters say they favor the immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, up 7 percentage points since the question was asked in a Tribune poll just over a year ago.
Support for the administration's Iraq policy is primarily confined to Republicans, but backing even among GOP loyalists has softened from 75 percent in May to 63 percent.
Fern Krugjohann, a lifelong Republican from Rockford, said the Iraq war has soured her on Bush.
"The way things are going right now, I think he's in turmoil," said Krugjohann, 79, a retired nurse. "All of our boys over there are getting killed, and what do you think is going to happen? They'll keep them over there for years and years and years. I don't think it's worth the cost."
40% favor immediate withdrawal. Republican support is down 12 points, and apparently non-Republican support is too low to even bother mentioning. Memo to Democrats: Favoring withdrawal will not get you killed in the polls.
In Illinois, Republicans have been reeling from the shadow of scandal surrounding former Gov. George Ryan, as well as an ideological battle between moderates and conservatives over control of the state party. Now some Republican leaders concede the president's declining support among the party's suburban faithful could affect next year's elections, most notably GOP attempts to recapture a key congressional seat--that of Rep. Melissa Bean, a freshman Democrat.
That ideological battle has ripped the state GOP apart. I like that battle, largely because it was one of the factors that gave us Alan Keyes for Senate, the best comedy of the 2004 TV season (ratings were lousy, so it sadly didn't get renewed).
Discontent over the economy also contributed to the drag on Bush's approval rating. Only one-quarter of those surveyed said they approved of Bush's stewardship of the economy, a drop from one-third of voters polled in May.
Another anvil around the administration's neck.
And finally, Bush's key strength, "I'm a likeable guy", has taken a beating:
One of the president's longstanding attributes--his likability--also has suffered. While voters in predominantly Democratic Chicago have previously registered an unfavorable opinion of Bush, now 57 percent of Illinois voters share that view, an increase of 11 percentage points since May.
And in the collar counties, where only 36 percent viewed Bush unfavorably a year ago, 52 percent now said they viewed him in an unfavorable light.
He's losing middle America. Tie the GOP to Bush, and 2006 will be a bloodbath.
-dms