I have been putting together a series of profiles of U.S. House of Representatives races to focus on in 2006. We currently hold 202 seats plus one independent who is a DIABN--a Dem in all but name--Bernie Sanders of Vermont. The GOP has 232 seats. Therefore, a net gain of 15 seats gives the Dems control, 218-217 (it won't depend on Sanders because he is running for the Senate and will almost certainly be replaced by a Dem or GOPer). I started the series by profiling 74 seats held by GOPers that because of demographics and/or issues with the incumbents could be vulnerable to takeover. I finished that series with a (mostly) objective ranking of these seats by vulnerability. That analysis (plus links to the individual district profiles) can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/23/173131/345
I then used the same criteria to generate a list of 42 seats which we hold that could be vulnerable to a GOP takeover under the right (or wrong) circumstances. I similarly ranked those seats by vulnerability. That diary can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/26/15543/5440.
I began profiling the 42 races on the "to defend" list on September 30. That diary is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/30/1684/29053.
The second installment was competed on October 11 (it's been a busy couple of weeks). It can be found here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/10/11/161018/23. The third was completed on Monday, and is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/10/17/185735/43
Since I began the series, Sherrod Brown (OH-13) announced that he's running for the Senate, leaving open his Akron-based seat. That seat falls in the "possibly competitive" category and ranks between #14 and #15 on the list. Remember, most of these races won't ultimately even be competitive. But, to the extent any of our seats are in danger, they are on this list. (Caveat: obviously, not-yet-announced retirements can potentially add vulnerable seats). In these profiles, I will include where the race falls on the ranking and my own forecast of likely competitive, possibly competitive, or unlikely competitive.
My methodology for inclusion and also for determination of district partisan makeup is explained in the previous diaries.
This installment will feature our potentially vulnerable seats in the plains states and the west. The seats:
Kansas 03 (Dennis Moore) (#12-possibly competitive)
The 3d Congressional District of Kansas consists of Johnson County (Kansas City suburbs), Wyandotte County (which includes Kansas City) and part of Douglas County to the west including the portion of Lawrence that is the home of the University of Kansas campus. More than two-thirds of its people live in Johnson County, which grew by 27% in the 1990s and had a $62,000 median household income. This is an affluent metropolitan district in a rough-hewn, historically rural state. It is easily the most Democratic district in Kansas, although the GOP redistricters made it less so in 2002 by removing much of the Dem stronghold of Lawrence, placing it in Jim Ryun's 2d district. Given that the intent of the plan was to defeat Moore, it is a mystery why the map didn't eliminate the university as well. I can only surmise that Ryun balked at having that many Dems added to his district. Under these lines, the 3d gave both Gore and Kerry 44% of the two-party vote. Overall, it is a 45.3% Dem district. The incumbent is Dennis Moore, who won the seat in 1998 from a weak and divisive GOP incumbent. Moore has always had strong labor backing and he's needed it because this seat has been at or near the top of the GOP's target list ever since. There are signs that Moore has solidified his grip, however: after taking 52%, 50%, and 50% in '98, '00, and '02, Moore won more comfortably, 55-43, in 2004. The GOP may well take a pass on Moore this go round, but I'd imagine that he will still see a reasonably strong challenge.
South Dakota at Large (Stephanie Herseth) (#8-likely competitive)
Herseth is one of the first candidates to be championed by dKos (and also one of the first to be quickly pilloried for unorthodoxy in her voting once elected). Despite the fact that the Dems have held at least two of the three statewide Congressional seats (2 Senate and one House) continuously since 1986, South Dakota is a GOP state; it went 61-39 for Bush both times. As such, this seat is only 39.8% Dem--one of the most Republican seats held by a Dem in the nation. Herseth first ran for the House seat in 2002 when GOPer John Thune left it to challenge Dem Sen. Tim Johnson. She lost narrowly to the sitting governor, Bill Janklow. When Janklow was forced to resign in 2003 due to vehicular manslaughter charges, Herseth ran again and won a special election, 51-49. In a November rematch, she won with a slightly higher percentage, 54-46. It is likely that the GOP will mount a strong challenge here before Herseth gets too entrenched, although it should be noted that there is no challenger as of yet.
North Dakota at Large (Earl Pomeroy) (#9-possibly competitive)
Like South Dakota, North Dakota is a GOP state (even more so) that has sent Dems to Congress; the delegation has been entirely Dem since Conrad's first victory in 1992. Bush won the state 63-37 in 2000 and 64-36 in 2004, and it is one of a handful of states where Bush's approval rating is still even or better. Pomeroy has consistently won with 52-55%, but he improved to a 60-40 win last time. Still, when a GOP candidate just has to convince 4 out of 5 Bush voters to support him, too, Pomeroy will never truly be safe.
Utah 02 (Jim Matheson) (#2-very likely competitive)
The 2d Congressional District of Utah includes much of the state, but 59% of its people live in Salt Lake County, east of a wobbling line between I-15 and the often dry Jordan River. This area includes most of the affluent neighborhoods in Salt Lake City and the suburbs of South Salt Lake, Murray, Midvale, Sandy and Draper. The 2d stretches to include the eastern part of the state and the southwest corner. It was drawn this way by the GOP to divide Salt Lake City (Matheson's old district contained all of it) and defeat Matheson. Despite the fact that this new district is a lot more GOP (68-32 for Bush both times, only 32.8% Dem overall), Matheson has hung on. He won a 50-50 squeaker in 2002, and took the rematch last time far more comfortably, 55-43. The nature of the district will make a perpetual top GOP target.
Colorado 03 (John Salazar) (#7-likely to be competitive)
The 3d Congressional District of Colorado is the state's largest--roughly the size of Arkansas--and includes most of the Western Slope. Redistricters in 2002 removed some of the resort and mining towns like Vail and Leadville and moved the district east of the Front Range to include the small industrial city of Pueblo. Pueblo is heavily Democratic and so are the counties on the plains and in the San Luis Valley to the south. These inhabitants are Hispanic, not Mexican-American: Spanish-speaking people have been living here, as in northern New Mexico, for 350 years. On balance, it is a Republican district (Bush won it 58-42 and then 56-44), but it can be unpredictable. Overall, it is 43.8% Dem. Dem John Salazar is a freshman elected in 2004 to replace retiring GOPer Scott McInnis. He won a tight race, 51-47. He is likely to be a top target in 2004, but is perhaps safer than fellow freshpersons Melissa Bean (IL-08) and Charlie Melancon (LA-03).
California 20 (Jim Costa) (#16-possibly competitive)
The 20th Congressional District of California includes most of the Westlands of the Central Valley, from Bakersfield to a point northwest of Fresno. Its irregular boundaries were drawn to maximize the Hispanic population and Democratic percentage, so the 20th includes the old downtown neighborhoods of both Bakersfield and Fresno, but not their more affluent neighborhoods; it includes heavily Latino towns like Delano, long Chavez's headquarters and recently the site of a potentially large natural gas discovery, but the 20th does not include more Anglo places like Tulare. Just 36% of Fresno's population is included within the 20th and just 18% of Bakersfield's; the district's Hispanic population is 63%, about double that in other Central Valley districts. This is the most Democratic Valley seat between Sacramento and Los Angeles. While the Valley has been trending Republican, redistricting made this district less so; but in 2004 Bush won 49% of the vote here. Overall, the district is 54.8% Dem. Jim Costa was elected in 2004 to succeed retiring longtime Dem Cal Dooley. Dooley had some tough races in his time, and Costa had a close one against a GOP state Senator, winning 53-47. It remains to be seen how heavily Costa will be targeted.
California 47 (Loretta Sanchez) (#41-unlikely to be competitive)
The 47th Congressional District of California is the geographic heart of Orange County. About half its people live in Santa Ana, in neighborhoods full of large families and many workers. The district includes most of Garden Grove, with many Latinos and Vietnamese, and most of Anaheim, with many Latinos. It includes many Orange County landmarks--Anaheim Stadium, Disneyland and Disney's California Adventure, opened in 2001. The population of the district is 65% Hispanic and 14% Asian (primarily Vietnamese). This core area has always been the most Democratic part of Orange County; the movement of Latinos to Democrats made it more Democratic in the 1990s. But it is not overwhelmingly Democratic like most majority-Hispanic districts in Los Angeles County. In 2003, the district voted 62% to recall Democratic Governor Gray Davis. George W. Bush, who lost the district 56%-41% to Al Gore in 2000, won it 50%-49% over John Kerry in 2004. This was the biggest rise in percentage for Bush in any of California's 53 districts. It represents a considerable increase in Bush support from Latinos and probably from Vietnamese, who turned out in large numbers in 2004 to elect one of their own as a Republican assemblyman; he promised to make Garden Grove a "Communist-free zone." Overall, it is 54.5% Dem. Sanchez was a national Dem heroine when she won the upset of the year in 1996, ousting batshit insane GOPer Bob Dornan. Since then, she's hovered around 60-40 wins. As such, this district barely makes the list. I would be very surprised if this race was on the radar unless there is a remap, in which case all bets are off for the whole state.
Oregon 04 (Peter DeFazio) (#37-unlikely to be competitive)
The 4th Congressional District of Oregon includes Eugene and Springfield and surrounding Lane County; it goes south on Interstate 5 to include Roseburg in Douglas County, once one of the premier logging counties in the United States. It extends north to Albany and includes most of Corvallis, but not Oregon State University. It includes the entire southern half of Oregon's Pacific coastline. Eugene is now heavily Democratic. Roseburg and Albany and their surrounding counties vote heavily Republican, leaving a clash of left and right in the district. The 4th District (with only slightly different boundaries) voted 54%-44% against George H. W. Bush in 1988, but in 2000 it voted 49%-44% for George W. Bush. In 2004, however, the 4th narrowly went for John Kerry, one of just two districts in the nation to flip from Bush to Kerry. Overall, it is 49.5% Dem. Pete DeFazio is a popular long term incumbent who has not been held under 60% since his first election in 1986. He makes this list only because he was held to 61% last time. He should be safe.
Oregon 05 (Darlene Hooley) (#18-possibly competitive)
The 5th Congressional District of Oregon includes much of the northern Willamette Valley. Near Portland it has Oregon City, and spreads south to the state capital of Salem and includes part of Corvallis (home of Oregon State University). Then the district hops over the Coast Range to take in Lincoln and Tillamook Counties; it also includes all of rural Polk County. Historically, the Willamette Valley was Republican, but it has been trending Democratic, and now is prime marginal territory. The Corvallis area is heavily Democratic, the Salem area more likely to be Republican while Clackamas County is competitive territory, more Republican than the more affluent Washington County west of Portland. This is a district that was nearly evenly divided in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Overall, it is 50.3% Dem. Darlene Hooley was first elected in 1996, ousting a 1994 GOPer. Since then, the GOP always has made her a target, and she has won with 53-57%. In 2004, she had her closest scrape, winning 53-44. It remains to be seen how much attention Hooley will get this year with the GOP on the defensive.
Washington 02 (Rick Larsen) (#32-unlikely to be competitive)
The 2d Congressional District of Washington includes the San Juan Islands, Whidbey Island and Puget Sound from Everett north, plus most of the margin of mainland along the Sound and the huge Cascade mountains, topped by snow-capped Mount Baker in northeast King County. The district has several military installations, including a relatively new and high-tech navy base at Everett and naval air station on Whidbey Island. This was the fastest-growing district in Washington during the 1990s. The political tradition in most of the lumbering and fishing areas here is Democratic, while the agricultural areas, like the Skagit Valley, are more Republican. Everett tends to be Democratic, some of the nearby new suburban towns Republican. Overall, this is a nearly evenly balanced district that tends to vote close to the state average. It is 52.5% Dem. Larsen was first elected in 2000, when GOPer Jack Metcalf retired. Larsen won a 50-50 squeaker that year and another 50-46 dogfight in 2002. He was largely left alone in 2004, however, and won 64-34. It is likely that he is now entrenched enough to be safe, but the GOP still is looking into a strong challenge here.
Washington 03 (Brian Baird) (#31-unlikely to be competitive)
The 3d Congressional District of Washington covers the land between the ocean and the Cascades, from Olympia on an inlet of Puget Sound, south to Vancouver. Economic growth and diversification and the coming of many new residents with no roots in the old industries have made the 3d a politically marginal district; George W. Bush won here with 48% of the vote in 2000 and 50% in 2004. Overall, it is 49.8% Dem. Baird won the seat in 1998 when GOP Rep. Linda Smith unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Patty Murray. Baird won 55-45 that year, and has increased his margin of victory each race since, winning 62-38 in both 2002 and 2004. He should be safe.