Recent poll numbers out of Florida indicate the state may be up for grabs. However, it is also clear that since 2000, the GOP has consolidated its hold over the state. So
should the Dems expend resources to contest it?
One thing is clear -- we don't need Florida to win. We have far more fertile pickup opportunities in NH, WV, AZ, OH, NV, and AR.
Still, there is a growing belief within the party that Florida is too expensive, too difficult and too time-consuming for Kerry to take the risk of betting the White House on Florida.
Some political observers even say Democrats should simply forget Florida and the rest of the South.
They argue that Kerry would be better off concentrating on the Southwest and the industrial Midwest, particularly Ohio -- where unemployment is high, unhappiness with the president growing and 21 electoral votes are at stake.
Talk of abandoning the state is likely heresy so long as Kerry leads Bush in the state. But expect Bush to launch a massive offensive to rally the state around him, and Jeb and the legions of Florida Republicans will play their roles.
The best we may hope to accomplish is force Bush to spend time and millions in a state that should be more solidly for him. I don't whink we can or should abandon the state altogether -- but Kerry would likely be more effective focusing his attentions elsewhere.