I have been writing a series of profiles giving the landscape in the House elections next year. What I did was use the partisan makeups of districts along with incumbent strength to generate lists of 74 seats we should target (as well as a list of 43 seats we need to worry about defending on our worst day. They were up on 9/23 and 9/26, respectively. Here are links:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/23/173131/345; and
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/26/15543/5440.
But, you can't beat somebody with nobody, so the next project is to examine who we have as challengers and open seat candidate, as well as who the GOP has challenging our incumbents and in open seats. The bad news is that as of this writing, there are a lot of holes. The good news is that we're still in the recruitment phase--the first filing deadline (Illinois) is still two months away.
For now, I will profile the key races with a brief description of the candidates, fundraising totals through 9/30, and, where applicable, a link. I'm going to start with my list of target GOP seats and go down the list. In addition to my 74, there are already six challengers in other races who have raised over $90K and (in four cases) the races just missed my original cut. A case can be made that the remaining two are winnable as well. Thus, I'm now looking at 80 races, and hopefully that list will continue to expand. (The six additions are CA-45, FL-24, NY-19, NY-20, MT-AL, and WI-05). Here are profiles of the first ten (note: descriptions come from politics1.com):
Original Target Rank (based mostly on the nature of the district/incumbent) #1--Iowa 01
Iowa's 1st district will be open in 2006; GOPer Jim Nussle is running for governor.
GOPers:
Mike Whalen, restaurant/hotel chain CEO--raised $269K/$131K on hand
State Rep. Bill Dix, a farmer--raised $267K/$185K on hand
Brian Kennedy, former state GOP chair and political consultant--raised $135K/$51K on hand
Dems:
Bruce Braley, attorney and former Iowa Trial Lawyers' Assn. Pres.--raised $306K/$249K on hand. Website: http://www.brucebraley.com/
Rick Dickinson, community development executive--raised $227K/$120K on hand. Website: http://www.rickdickinson.org/
Bill Gluba--former State Sen. and 2004 nominee (44%), a realtor--raised $87K/$47K on hand. Website: http://www.glubaforcongress.com/
Dave Overby--retired newspaper editor, farmer, and Vietnam veteran--no FEC report filed. Website: http://www.overbyforcongress.org/
Original Rank #2--Colorado 07
Colorado's 7th will be open in 2006; GOPer Bob Beauprez is running for governor.
GOPers:
Rick O'Donnell, State Higher Education Commission Chair and 2002 candidate--$422K/$365K
Mark Paschall, Jefferson County Treasurer--no FEC report
Dems:
Ed Perlmutter, former State Sen. and attorney--$321K/$259K. Website: http://www.perlmutter2006.com/
Peggy Lamm, former State Rep. and think tank executive director--$182K/$121K. Website: http://www.peggylammforcongress.com/
Herb Rubenstein, attorney and business consultant--$19K/$6K. Website: http://www.herbrubensteinforcongress.com/
Original Rank #3--Indiana 09
This race will be a rematch of the closest 2004 contest between freshman GOPer Mike Sodrel and former Dem Rep. Baron Hill.
GOPer:
Rep. Mike Sodrel--$749K/$500K
Dem:
Former Rep. Baron Hill (50% in '04)--$460K/$427K. Website: http://bringbackbaron.com/
Original Rank #4--Washington 08
This race will be freshman GOPer Dave Reichert's first defense in this swing district.
GOPer:
Rep. Dave Reichert--$914K/$455K
Dems:
Darcy Burner, ex-Microsoft exec and computer programmer--$105K/$44K. Website: http://www.darcyburner.com/
Randy Gordon, attorney--$78K/$49K. Website: http://www.randygordonforcongress.com/
Original Rank #5--Connecticut 04
This is a rematch of a strong challenge to longtime GOPer Chris Shays in a district strongly trending blue.
GOPer:
Rep. Chris Shays--$757K/$469K
Dem:
Diane Farrell, Westport First Selectwoman, ex-advertising exec, and 2004 nominee (48%)--$313K/$285K. Website: http://www.farrellforcongress.com/
Original Rank #6--Illinois 06
This is an open seat contest to replace retiring GOPer Henry Hyde.
GOPer:
Peter Roskam, State Sen., attorney, and ex-DeLay aide--681K/$550K
Dems:
Christine Cegelis, software firm account mgr., tech consultant, and '04 nominee (44%)--$160K/$39K. Website: http://www.cegelisforcongress.org/
Lindy Scott, college professor--$22K/$17K. Website: http://scottforcongress.net/
Original Rank #7--Connecticut 02
Three-term GOPer Rob Simmons represents the most Dem district held by a GOPer in the nation.
GOPer:
Rep. Rob Simmons--$833K/$275K
Dem: Joe Courtney, former State Rep., attorney, and '02 nominee (46%)--$356K/$308K. Website: http://www.joecourtney.com/
Original Rank #8--Pennsylvania 08
Freshman GOPer Mike Fitzpatrick makes his first defense of this swing district with Bob Casey and Ed Rendell at the top of the ticket.
GOPer:
Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick--$1033K/$1050K
Dems:
Patrick Murphy, attorney and Iraq War veteran--$157K/$107K. Website: http://www.murphy06.com/
Paul Lang, disabled United States Coast Guard veteran--$55K/$21K. Website: http://www.electlang.com/
Andy Warren, former Bucks County Commissioner and former GOPer--$39K/$36K. No website.
Original Rank #9--Pennsylvania 06
Two-term GOPer Jim Gerlach and two-time 51-49 winner faces rematch of tough 2004 campaign.
GOPer:
Rep. Jim Gerlach--$1131K/$912K
Dem:
Lois Murphy, attorney and 2004 nominee (49%)--$433K/$350K. Website: http://www.loismurphy.org/
Original Rank #10--Wisconsin 08
This is an open seat race; GOPer Mark Green is running for governor.
GOPers:
John Gard, State Rep. and Speaker of State Assembly--$465K/$324K
Terri McCormick, State Rep. and ex-education consultant--$46K/$16K
Tim Lawrie, winery owner, retired Army officer and Vietnam veteran--no FEC report
Dems:
Dr. Steve Kagen, physician--$326K/$298K. Website: http://www.stevekagen.org/
Jamie Wall, business consultant--$316K/$268K. Website: http://www.wallforcongress.com/
Nancy Nusbaum, former Brown County Executive, former DePere Mayor and '02 Lt. Governor Candidate--$233K/$212K. Website: http://www.nancy2006.com/
Rich Langan, retired police officer--no FEC report. Website: http://www.langanforcongress.com/