Update: [Hurricane Wilma open thread http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/10/23/225024/47]
Wilma is expected to make landfall near Naples, FL early Monday as a strong Cat 2 or a Cat 3 hurricane. She is currently strengthening and reorganizing herself over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico; the
8 pm EDT public advisory places her at 23.9 N, 84.4 W, or 170 mi WSW of Key West and 225 mi SW of the SW Florida coast. She's moving NE at 15 mph, but accelerating. Winds are at 110 mph; Cat 3 starts at 111 mph.
NWS Wilma page
Hurricane-force winds extend up to 85 miles out from the center (70 miles NE), while tropical storm winds extend up to 230 miles out (about 200 mi out toward Florida). That would imply tropical-storm winds hitting Naples by 11 pm EDT and hurricane-force winds coming in between 3 and 5 am EDT.
Hurricane warnings extend from Longboat Key (off Tarpon Springs) around to Titusville, including the Keys. Inland hurricane warnings exist south of roughly a Titusville-Sarasota line. Tornado watches and warnings are also popping up within and north of the hurricane warnings, as typical for a landfalling hurricane. Tropical storm warnings are up along the west coast to Appalachiacola and the east coast to roughly Daytona, with inland warnings roughly south of a line connecting the two cities (in which metro Tampa and Orlando are included). The rest of NE Florida is under wind advisories.
Arguments for a Cat 2 involve increasing shear and dry-air entrapment from the northwest and the eyewall replacement cycle not completing in time for landfall. Arguments for Cat 3 involve her strengthening over the last twelve hours and warm sea-surface temperatures, though she seems to have left the loop current (a deep area of warm water between the Yucatan and Key West that nourished Katrina and Rita). My own guess is for landfall with winds of 115-120 mph.
So as not to leave a corner of the state untouched, a Red Flag warning (elevated likelihood of fire) covers the Panhandle and surrounding portions of Alabama.
After hitting Florida, Wilma's next expected stop is Nova Scotia, though she may make things blustery on the Outer Banks and in Massachusetts.
Tropical Depression Alpha, Wilma's bratty little cousin, is now north of Haiti. Barely a tropical depression, it's expected to remain so as it passes through the SE Bahamas and thence into the North Atlantic, where it will be absorbed into Wilma.
Leaving the tropics, a large low south of Fort Wayne, IN is located along the front of a deep upper-level trough bringing cold air into most of the US between the Appalachians and the Rockies. That means freeze warnings from NE Kansas to N Texas, NE Colorado and NE New Mexico, with widespread teens over the Northern Plains. It also means rain and thunder for the central Great Lakes and mixed precip southwest from the UP through NW Wisconsin.
(I tried to find interesting weather over the West Coast, but they seem lucky, for now.)
The following links should point to the upper-level trough. SW winds can be seen ahead of the trough with NE winds behind it. The trough axis at 700 mb (about 3 km up) runs roughly from Erie, PA to Evansville IN, while the trough axis at 250 mb (10 km up) runs from the Michigan thumb to EC Kansas, about 150 miles back. In general, this would portend a favorable environment for Wilma to keep her strength through her transition from tropical to extratropical storm and an extensive area of high winds to her northwest. I won't say "Perfect Storm" but I would not want to be on a boat off the Massachusetts coast Tuesday.
700 mb:
250 mb:
Have a good workweek and (hopefully) a Merry Fitzivas! And always remember to monitor official NWS information regarding Wilma and Alpha and obey evacuation orders!