I have been writing a series of profiles giving the landscape in the House elections next year. What I did was use the partisan makeups of districts along with incumbent strength to generate lists of 74 seats we should target (as well as a list of 43 seats we need to worry about defending on our worst day. They were up on 9/23 and 9/26, respectively. Here are links:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/23/173131/345; and
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/26/15543/5440.
But, you can't beat somebody with nobody, so the next project is to examine who we have as challengers and open seat candidate, as well as who the GOP has challenging our incumbents and in open seats. The bad news is that as of this writing, there are a lot of holes. The good news is that we're still in the recruitment phase--the first filing deadline (Illinois) is still two months away.
For now, I will profile the key races with a brief description of the candidates, fundraising totals through 9/30, and, where applicable, a link. I'm starting with my list of target GOP seats and go down the list. In addition to my 74, there are already six challengers in other races who have raised over $90K and (in four cases) the races just missed my original cut. A case can be made that the remaining two are winnable as well. Thus, I'm now looking at 80 races, and hopefully that list will continue to expand. (The six additions are CA-45, FL-24, NY-19, NY-20, MT-AL, and WI-05). Profiles of the first ten can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/10/20/154742/22.
Here are the seats I originally ranked 11-20. While we have a fairly strong challenger (or challengers) in each of the first ten, you'll note that three of these second ten have no challenger at all. I'm hoping that that gets remedied. If any of you out there live in these locales and ever had a hankering for running for public office, this may be a good time--considering the problems facing the GOP, the (relative) favorability of the terrain, and the clear primary field.
Target Rank #11 Kentucky 03
Anne Northup won the Dem leaning Louisville district in 1996 and has been surviving challenges since. However, she has yet to defend this seat (easily the most Democratic in the state) in a strong Dem year. We need a challenger.
Dem:
NONE-filing deadline is in January 2006
GOP:
Rep. Anne Northup--$1081K raised/$1014K on hand.
Target Rank #12 Florida 09
This is an open seat; Rep. Michael Bilirakis is retiring and attempting to hand the seat off to his son, Gus.
Dems:
Greg Rublee, college professor and former Defense Department official--$76K/$50K. Website: http://www.rubleeforcongress.com/
Bill Mitchell, attorney, Vietnam veteran, and '02 GOP candidate for state Rep.--$11K/$9K. Website: http://www.billmitchellforcongress.com/
Target Rank #13 Iowa 02
GOPer Jim Leach has managed to walk a "moderate GOP" tightrope to survive in a Dem district. He's a crappy fundraiser and is just the type of incumbent to be swept away in a Dem year.
Dem:
David Loebsack, college professor--$49K/$52K. Website: http://www.loebsackforcongress.org/
GOP:
Rep. Jim Leach--$158K/$122K.
Target Rank #14 Minnesota 06
This is an open seat; Rep. Mark Kennedy is running for the Senate. Dem Patty Wetterling gave Kennedy a tough race last time in this GOP-leaning swing district.
Dems:
Elwyn Tinklenberg, former State Transportation Commissioner, former Blaine Mayor & former minister--$173K/$111K. Website: http://www.tinklenbergforcongress2006.com/
Scott Mortensen, sales manager and former minister--$2K/$1K. Website: http://www.scottymortensen.com/
GOP:
Phil Krinkie, State Rep. & air conditioning contractor--$277K/$225K
Jim Knoblauch, State Rep., accountant & realtor--$272K/$182K
Michelle Bachmann, State Sen. & attorney--$208K/$166K
Jay Esmay, granite co. exec & U.S. Air Force veteran
Target Rank #15 California 50
This is an open seat; Rep. Randy Cunningham is retiring and probably going to jail. The Dems have a big opportunity in this ordinarily GOP seat because of the Duke's legal woes.
Dem:
Francine Busby, college professor, businesswoman, & '04 Dem nominee (38%)--$248K/$177K. Website: http://www.francinebusby2006.org/
GOP:
Mark Wyland, State Rep.--$252K/$250K
Howard Kaloogian, former State Rep., radio talk show host & '04 US Senate Candidate--$28K/$26K
Alan Uke, manufacturing exec--$25K/$8K
Bill Morrow, State Sen., U.S. Marine Corps vet, and '00 candidate--no FEC filing
Lori Holt Pfiler, Escondido Mayor--no FEC filing
George Plescia, State Rep.--no FEC filing
Pam Slater-Price, San Diego County Supervisor & former Encinitas Mayor--no FEC filing
George Schwartzman (R), businessman & '03 Governor candidate--no FEC filing
Target Rank #16 New Mexico 01
With the entry of Dem Patricia Madrid into the race, this becomes a top ten (possibly top five) race.
Dem:
Patricia Madrid, State Attorney General--no FEC report (just announced). No campaign website yet.
GOP:
Rep. Heather Wilson--$993K/$732K
Target Rank #17 Pennsylvania 15
Charlie Dent won this swing district in 2004 when Pat Toomey challenged Arlen Specter in the GOP primary against a horrible Dem opponent. Thus far, there is nobody to take on this freshman that should be vulnerable (Dems held the seat from 1993-99).
Dem:
NONE--filing deadline March 7, 2006
GOP:
Rep. Charlie Dent--$493K/$468K
Target Rank #18 Connecticut 05
The least winnable of the three(!) GOP Connecticut seats, this is still a lean-Dem district where Johnson can be beaten in a wave. Murphy looks like the strongest Dem she's had to face other than fellow incumbent Jim Maloney in '02.
Dems:
Chris Murphy, State Sen. & attorney--$253K/$234K. Website: http://www.murphyforcongress.org/
Paul Vance, president of Waterbury Board of Aldermen--$30K/$13K. No website.
GOP:
Rep. Nancy Johnson--$946K/$1922K
Target Rank #19 North Carolina 11
Charles Taylor is an unpopular corrupt longtime incumbent who Dems get closer to toppling every cycle. The dynamics this time give them a good shot, especially with a celebrity challenger.
Dem:
Heath Shuler, realtor & former NFL Quarterback--$266K/$249K. Website: http://www.heathshuler.com/
GOP:
Rep. Charles Taylor--$448K/$19K
Target Rank #20 Louisiana 07
This is a traditionally conservative Dem seat in the Louisiana bayou. The GOP picked it up un '04 when Chris John left to run for Senate. While Dems are hopeful John will run for his old seat, he has not made his plans known and there is no other candidate to date.
Dem:
Chris John, former Rep.?
Filing Deadline August 2006
GOP:
Rep. Charles Boustany--$825K/$588K