Daily Kos

Arnie Struggles. Latest Poll Numbers show defeat looming!

by sanchez96

Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:11:28 PM PDT

The recently released Public Policy Institute of California released their latest numbers on the Special Election here in CA this Nov. 8th.

The good news is that despite very heavy ad rotation by Arnie and his cronies, there has been very little movement in the numbers of Props 73-77.  Prop 75 has acutally lost ground since the last poll.  Historically, props under 50% at this point go on to defeat.

The bad new is that the margins are still close and we cannot take for granted turnout and mobilizing our base.

Vote No.  Nix the first six.

More below the flip:

Prop 73 (Abortion, Parental Notification)

Yes        42

No         48

Undecided  10
____________________

Prop 74 (Teacher Tenure, Discipine

Yes        46

No         48

Undecided  6
____________________

Prop 75 (Union Dues, Employee Consent)

Yes        46

No         46

Undecided  8
____________________

Prop 76 (State Spending, Education Funding)

Yes        30

No         62

Undecided  8
____________________

Prop 77 (Redistricting)

Yes        36

No         50

Undecided  14

Link: http://www.sacbee.com/...

Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California, Special Election, 2005 elections, CA-Prop 75 (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

Permalink | 68 comments

  •  If all of his props go down... (none / 0)

    ... does he elect not to run?

    I mean, the writing is on the wall at that point.

    by Bob Johnson on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:11:28 PM PDT

    •  You would think (4.00 / 2)

      but his ego might write a check his political abilities can't cash (sorry about the horrible Top Gun reference).

      by sanchez96 on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:13:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He already has his out. (none / 0)

      He's supposed to do two movies next year. He claims he can do them and juggle them with the governorship. He can now say that his fans are the most important thing and so he will devote his time to his movies.

      The sad part is, it will work as far as the box office figures will go.

      Flying Squid Studios - Cartoons to Rot Your Brain!

      by Arken on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:20:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The movie deals... (none / 0)

        Are Ah-nuld reading the writing on the wall. If the Asshole from Austria is anything, he's a shrewd businessman. He knows when it's time to cut his losses. So maybe if all his props go down to defeat on November 8th, he might decide not to run after all.

        Of course I could be wrong, but all Herr Gropenfuhrer is going to get if he runs for reelection is a nice spanking from whichever Dem goes up against him. To quote someone else's tagline: Go ahead. Make our day.

        Arnold and Dubya star in "Twins II"
        http://msgeek703.googlepages.com/thearnoldanddubyashow
        Remember Katrina: throw the bastards out!

        by MamasGun on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 04:43:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  He'll be back (none / 0)

      Ahnolkd knows that he won on celebrity and not policy, and is trying to wear the polls as a badge of honor shwing his commitment to his (Pete Wilson's) policies. He'll count on his image to squeeze him back into the Gov's mansion.

      I think that by attacking teachers, firefighters, police and nurses that he has caused himself too much harm to get re-elected. Those are not popular targets here, and the unions are well organized and politically savvy.

      The only question is whether the Dems can come up with a marquee candidate. Best case scenario is that Warren Beatty endorses Rob Reiner, who is a man of great intelligence and would be a reasonably good governor. Beatty needs to stay involved promoting the Dem, since he is an effective speaker and has great respect. But he doesn't have the political experience necessary to be an effective governor, and has said he didn't want to run. Draft Beatty, but as a supporter, not a candidate!

      Don't you think John McCain looks tired?

      by MakeChessNotWar on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 04:53:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think a solid non-marquee can defeat Arnold (none / 0)

        After all, the only reason Arnold got in was because it was a recall. If it was a full election at a regular time, I doubt he would have gotten in at all. If nothing else, all those groping accusations would've taken him out.

        I mean, we definitely better keep an eye on him, but now that he's got all these conflicts-of-interests crimes dogging him, I think he's toast.

        "Think. It ain't illegal yet." - George Clinton

        by jbeach on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 04:58:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Haven't we learned that bad actors... (none / 1)

        make bad elected officials in high office?  I give you Ronald Raygun and Fred the Dolt Thompson (my senator prior to Alexander -- condolences accepted).  Now add Arnold to that list.

        Take a lesson:  only elect FINE actors!!

        "No self-respecting woman should wish or work for the success of a Party that ignores her sex." -- Susan B. Anthony http:www.twtp.org

        by Yellow Dog Dem Woman on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 05:26:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Arnold will quit (none / 0)

      I'm willing to bet he doesn't run if all his measures lose. The guy turned out to be an empty suit -- a big one, but no stuffing whatsoever.

      Can It Happen Here?

      by janinsanfran on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 09:35:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Re: (none / 0)

    Glad to see the 77 results, not glad that 75 is tied.

    A proud member of the "far left."

    by Paleo on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:13:06 PM PDT

  •  Doing my part (none / 1)

    to make sure we run the table on all six!

    Arnold's finished. He has zero political capital left. He should end his term and go back to making money making mediocre movies, because I don't want him to make money making California a mediocre state.

    -- war-weary.

    by peacemonger on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:18:27 PM PDT

  •  PPI vs. SurveyUSA (none / 1)

    Interesting to see the differences between the PPI results and the Survey USA results from last week.

    First set of numbers is PPI, second set Survey USA:

    Prop 73 (42 yes - 48 no) (60 - 38)

    Prop 74 (46 - 48) (53 - 45)

    Prop 75 (46 -46) (56 - 42)

    Prop 76 (30 - 62) (54 - 41)

    Prop 77 (36 - 50) (54 - 41)

    Let's hope PPI is the more accurate (I think its track record in California is pretty good).  The gaps in Prop 73, 76 and 77 are particularly striking.

    -4.75, -6.31 "Violent means will give violent freedom." - Gandhi

    by DemUnity on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:25:01 PM PDT

  •  Bad bad Sac Bee (none / 1)

    They were not following orders.  The numbers were not supposed to be released until 12:01 AM.

    Yes, these are the numbers and they are good news for our side.  Schwarzenegger's teams are trying to spin the polls by telling the press that their internal polls show them up on everything but 76 and saying that they were close.  

    Visit the BetterCA community, log in and get blogging.

    by Alliance for a Better California on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:25:37 PM PDT

  •  Let's not get too comfortable (4.00 / 3)

    We need to really put in the effort in the final week and a half.  If you haven't volunteered yet, please do so.  We need to turn out the vote to see these poll numbers turn into reality on election day.

    by ortcutt on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:30:22 PM PDT

    •  YES! (none / 1)

      If you live in a large "blue" CA area, please, please help GOTV.  We must send a message, defeat Ahnold and his special interests which are working to destroy those of us who live and work in CA.

      AfterHoursStamper.blogspot.com

      by SanJoseLady on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 05:45:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Even if you don't live in a blue area (none / 1)

        Even if you live in the reddest part of CA, there are many Democrats in your area who could use some encouragement to get to the polls.

        There are many Democrats in red areas.  We can't forget that.  No county is the state has lower than 30% of registered voters registered as Democrats.  Even Modoc, Lassen, Mono, and Orange Counties.  Our strength is not only San Francisco and Los Angeles County.  It's people all over the state.

        by ortcutt on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 06:57:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Glad but surprised (none / 0)

    Last I heard on the local evening news a few nights ago, they said it looked like all would pass.

    God is neither American or male. - Anne Lamott

    by Silly Goose on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:30:25 PM PDT

    •  Stupid SUSA Poll (none / 0)

      Those numbers from last week were from the robo-dialling SUSA poll.  I said then that we should wait for the PPIC and Field Polls before concluding anything.   PPIC and Field are well-respected polling outfits.

      by ortcutt on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:33:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The polls have to show us winning (none / 0)

    by a large margin - or rather him losing by a large margin so that when he screws with the ballet box and wins everyone knows what happened.

    Single Payer The Healthy Solution

    by Arlyn on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:33:25 PM PDT

  •  don't get cocky (none / 1)

    we've got to GOTV GOTV GOTV. off-elections are always a problem, as the nutsoes turn out in droves. even if we're ahead at the polls, we've got to be hustling to get those people to actually bother to turn out.

    surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

    by wu ming on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:38:43 PM PDT

  •  What about 78 and 79? (none / 0)

    The 78/79 battle is the biggest one of this election to me.

    Teacher tenure, parental notification and redistricting aren't remotely as important to benefiting everyday Americans in their lives as reigning in big Pharma...

    Head to Heading Left, BlogTalkRadio's progressive radio site!

    by thereisnospoon on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:39:41 PM PDT

    •  They are both passing (none / 0)

      Which leads to this bizzare scenario:

      If there are directly conflicting sections of code, the prop with more votes overwrites the other, potentially leading to a quasi hybird law written by big pharma and liberal social activists.

      Good times...

      I also found out that Prop 80 could severely restrict the development of alternative/clean energy sources.  I had been planning on voting yes, but voted no...

      by sanchez96 on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:43:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  explain/sources (none / 0)

        "I also found out that Prop 80 could severely restrict the development of alternative/clean energy sources.  I had been planning on voting yes, but voted no..."

        You can't just drop a statement like that without some backup...

        by dc 20005 on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 05:01:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sorry, you're right (none / 0)

          From an email a friend who works in the solar power advocacy world whom I trust and have dealt with before:

          "Currently California's renewable energy standard provides that private utilities and ESPs are required to increase the share of electricity that is generated from green/renewable sources, such as solar, wind, geothermal power, by 1 percent per year, to 20% of the total electricity supply by 2017."

          "The CPUC has accelerated this deadline to 2010. Prop 80 would lock the 2010 deadline in state law.  Sounds good, right?  However, once passed into law by initiative, there would be no way to increase the standard above 20% without a two-thirds vote of the Legislature.  DO you really think the 5 Goopers that could hold this up wouldn't do so at the behest of their industry paymasters?"

          "Enviros (including my boss and our trade association) have concluded that there is simply no way we could meet this threshold.  You know and respect Susan Kennedy.  Do you want her and the CPUC to make that decision or the luddites in the Legislature?  The 20% becomes a ceiling, not a floor."

          I am not entirely comfortable with the coalition that is place to defeat Prop 80, but I trust my friend and am a huge advocate of solar power myself (I put a system on my roof and couldn't be happier with my $7 a month electricity bills and putting power back into the grid).

          by sanchez96 on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 05:36:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  78/79 (none / 0)

        I believe if both propositions pass, the prop with more votes will go into effect.

        Doug.

        "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." --Mohandas Gandhi

        by risasperson on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 05:02:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I was told by an election lawyer (none / 0)

          that only if the conflict exisits in specific code does the prop with more votes go into effect.  But we'll find out soon anyway...

          by sanchez96 on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 05:17:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It doesn't have to be specific code (none / 0)

            ...if there is a substantive conflict between the provisions, regardless of code section numbering or other artificial device, a court would still construe the provisions of the initiative with the higher number of votes to prevail.

            -------------------------------------------

            Someone left the cake out in the rain. - Jimmy Webb

            by eecee on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 11:07:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  BTW, here's the citation (none / 0)

            for the provision of the California Constitution that governs this:

            Art. II, Sec. 10 ... (b) If provisions of 2 or more measures approved at the same election conflict, those of the measure receiving the highest affirmative vote shall prevail.

            -------------------------------------------

            Someone left the cake out in the rain. - Jimmy Webb

            by eecee on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 11:11:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  They did not poll (none / 0)

      on 78 and 79.  The last time they polled was back in  September.  They showed Prop. 78 at Yes 43% No 38% and Prop. 79 Yes 34% No 40%.

      If they both pass the one with the most votes wins.

      Have you seen the new flash from Consumers Union on Prop. 79?  They just released it today and it is a Sin City theme, great animation.

      Visit the BetterCA community, log in and get blogging.

      by Alliance for a Better California on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:45:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Good Question (none / 0)

      Having so many people out there calling people to "Nix the Six" will hopefully help 79's chances.  Both 78 and 79 will probably pass.  So, the question will be which one gets more votes.  Hopefully, it will be 79.

      by ortcutt on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:46:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Arnold's Neighborhood (4.00 / 3)

    http://www.arnoldsneighborhood.com/

    Lead, follow, or get out of the way.

    by TerraByte on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:39:53 PM PDT

  •  I'd be happy if they all lost (4.00 / 4)

    Even the pro-consumer drug proposition and the energy regulation one.  

    Legislation by annual umpteen referendums is no way to run a fucking government, especially for the largest state in the entire country.

    We have a republican democracy in this country - that means I vote for someone to serve as my legislator who goes off to Sacramento to argue, push, cajole, lobby and otherwise get on with the business of government.  You now, compromising.

    Instead, we get legislating by 30-second TV ads.  How much was spent on all these proposition campaigns?

    Liberals drive me crazy. Unfortunately, conservatives are even worse.

    by goblue72 on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:40:38 PM PDT

    •  Come on (4.00 / 2)

      Wouldn't you love to see 79 pass and know that the Pharmaceutical Companies paid $80 million and still lost.

      On the other hand, they probably pass those costs on to consumers, but we can all dream that it comes out of profits.

      by ortcutt on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:48:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Besides it's my guess (none / 1)

      that many, if not most, of the voters have no idea what they are doing.  Understanding these propositions requires a lot of time and research, what is what we pay our elected representatives to do.  Not saying that voters should be uninformed and simply trust the legislators, but none of us can know it all.

      by azindy on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:53:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Exactly (none / 1)

      Would anybody want to get on board with my ballot initiative to make it much harder to put initiatives on the ballot?

      I'm only kind of kidding. I actually do think that if we could get a ballot initiative that would ban paid signature gatherers, it would pretty much kill the whole "legislating at the ballot box" craze. I'd add to that contribution limits to initiative campaigns in line with what we have for state and federal officials. If we make it so you can't just purchase legislation, I think it would take most of the fun out of it for the people who are pushing these initiatives.

      -3.13, -5.74

      by taliesin on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 03:54:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would (none / 0)

        I would support anything to get rid of this stupid ballot initiative thing. I really would. The initiatives that passed in 2004 makes my skin crawl. yeah, yeah, we're in a democracy, but the vast majority of the people are too:
        Dumb
        Lazy
        Ignorant
        Crazy
        to make good laws. That's why we vote for representatives and hope that they are only one out of the listed four.

        [America]Are you being sinister or is this some form of practical joke?

        by hstokes on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 04:24:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm with you (none / 0)

      This is a crazy, corrupt system indicative of an ineffective state government.  I'm in favor of a proposition banning propositions (oh, and if it repeals the stupid recall law, that would be a good thing, too.)

      Let all the dreamers wake the nation.

      by Nancy in LA on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 05:22:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A solution: "Yes, No, I don't know" (none / 0)

      I agree.  Having lived in California, I couldn't stand the annual barrage of a gazillion complex issues, all reduced to sound bytes.  I mean, what the hell was the point of electing a government in the first place, if all this was going to be decided by this kind of poll?  I mean, it's one thing to have an initiative on something like the death penalty, abortion, or one of those issues that people know where they stand.  But the stuff on there now is ridiculous stuff that 90% of the population has no clue about.

      Okay, end of rant -- start of solution.  If I were emperor of California, I'd make a simple change.  Every initiative would come with three choices:

      1. Yes
      2. No
      3. I don't know

      If "Yes" still gets 50+%, it passes.   This way, if there are things that people clearly feel passionate about, they can still pass. But for the vast majority of initiatives that people can't friggin understand, even a 20% "I don't know" would likely be enough to torpedo it.  And that would be a good thing.

      BareNaked Pundits!

      by Hlinko on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 07:07:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If you were emperor... (none / 0)

        You could just do away with all democracy and rule as an enlightened despot.  Democracy sucks, it's only better than the alternatives.  

        Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

        by Asak on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 11:55:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  "Republican Revolution" also against 77 (4.00 / 2)

    Today in the mail, I received a flyer from some group out of Newport Beach (Orange County) calling itself "Continuing the Republican Revolution." It provided me a handy checklist to carry to the polls so that I'd be sure to "vote right," LOL.

    So I thought, well, that's a useful list of everything and everyone I want to remember to vote against -- the ones they recommend -- as well as voting for the ones they don't. So I didn't automatically toss it.

    And then this caught my eye:


    REPUBLICANS - NO on PROPOSITION 77 - IT IS A TERRIBLE MISTAKE!!
    Three randomly selected volunteer retired judges (with all of their political prejudices) should not have all the power. 45 out of the 45 Republican state lawmakers voted for the districts that this ill-conceived and sloppily drafted proposal would void. If 77 passes, Republicans lose!!

    This isn't an official GOP mailing, apparently, despite the elephants on it. And it also has this lovely quote on the front (with an eagle and the flag):
    "President Ronald Reagan will be forever remembered. His ideals of limited government and personal freedoms have been passed on to President Bush and Governor Schwarzenegger. God bless him and God bless America."

    Not sure which "him" they're blessing or who they're quoting (quote marks in the original), but did someone not get the memo that the 77 redistricting proposal is Ahnuld's idea?

    America will never again be the land of the free... Until she again becomes the home of the brave.

    by Ducktape on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 04:04:43 PM PDT

    •  i got a vote guide from ah-nold (none / 0)

      in the mail.  it lists everything he supports.

      so i'm taking it to the polls on the 8th, and i will vote exactly the opposite of whatever he says.

      skippy the bush kangaroo: aware of all internet traditions since 2002!

      by skippy on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 06:52:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Disappointing (none / 0)

      77 is actually a much better solution than what we currently have.  Is it perfect?  No.  But it is still way better than the current situation.  I'm very disappointed with people here who are blindly opposing it just because it was proposed by Arnold.  

      Actually I think this poll completely sucks.  Abortion, Union Dues and Teacher tenure are dangerously close to passing, Spending Limits is failing (sorry, but we need to cut spending somehow and we don't have a Rep governor forever), Redistricting is failing, when our current districts completely suck.  

      Frankly its looking to me like I'll be on the losing side of just about every proposition.  California really is going down the shitter.  

      Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

      by Asak on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 11:54:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What they forget (none / 0)

    Is that the people who are going to churn out in groves are the unions.  People may say they are likley voters but the only for sure vote are the unions who will go crazy.

    John McCain wants to stay in Iraq for a century.

    by jkfp2004 on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 04:21:39 PM PDT

  •  Stick a fork in 'em (none / 0)

    ...they're done.  All of 'em, I'd say.

    This close, all that counts is mo.  And the momentum even on the closest of these measures is DOWN.  

    I'm getting a snowstorm of well-crafted pieces on these measures, all of them from the "NO" campaigns.  Superfudge Chunk is relegated to being dressed down by his audiences on Hispanic radio.  It's costing the unions and others a fortune to kill these lousy ideas, but the good news is that they will stay killed for awhile.  Arnold is pretty much torpedoing the Repugnicant wish list by verifying their unpopularity for the next several years, at least.  And with this humiliating trip to the woodshed, not only won't he be governor for another term, he'll never, ever be Senator, which was the plan.

    You'll notice he has started contracting for movies again.  He's about money more than anything else, and he's not so completely stupid that he'll risk everything on a political career that has obviously gone sour.

    The Packwood of Hollywood is toast.  Stick a cigar in him.  He's done.

    The DLC was created to prevent the takeover of the Democratic Party by Democrats.

    by Dracowyrm on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 04:21:52 PM PDT

  •  Some wingnut fanatics oppose 77 (none / 0)

    because it may help equalize the state but potentially cut into Republican congressional seats hence opposition from some.  I began to think the handwriting was on the wall when they pulled arnold from the ad campaign, the focus groups must have been real bad.  Call everyone to bury this jackass, he'll leave if he takes a beating, he's focused on a national process anyway.

    Sometimes, out of the most ordinary looking vessel can flow the most extraordinary wine.

    by normcash on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 04:29:17 PM PDT

  •  payback (none / 0)

    I so think there is going to be a large number of gay voters, who under ordinary circumstances  might not have bothered to vote in this election, who will get out there and vote NOs to these initiatives. Political payback.

    by KateG on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 05:23:03 PM PDT

  •  voter guide pimpage (none / 0)

    Forward this bad boy...

    http://speakoutca.org/...

    now in spanish, too!

    Speak Out, California! Energizing progressives from Crescent City to Calexico

    by da on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 06:07:38 PM PDT

  •  Arnold doesn't want us to vote (none / 0)

    This whole special-election campaign was orchestrated with the idea that progressives/Dems wouldn't vote and the GOP would carry the day. And the MSM are missing the big picture. I'm still worried that a lot of people will "protest" this overpriced special election by staying home -- which is just what the gov. wants. Please -- tell all your friends in CA that this election really matters. Turnout will decide it.

    by tim redmond on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 06:11:23 PM PDT

Permalink | 68 comments