There have been quite a few questions about Tennessee's state legislature and whether or not it will go Republican this cycle.
Why is the legislature important? Well, for one thing, controlling the legislature means controlling redistricting; Tennessee Democrats controlled redistricting in 2000 (although we had to deal with a Republican Governor) and we'd like to do it again in 2010.
Second, the legislature tends to be a breeding ground for candidates for higher office. Of Tennessee's nine Representatives, four served in the legislature.
That's the case in virtually every state. I'm surprised so few political junkies pay attention to them.
So for all the Volunteer State political nuts, here's the rundown.
The State Senate currently sits at 18 Democrats and 15 Republicans. Sixteen state Senators are up for reelection this year; 11 are Democratic-held, 5 are Republican-held.
Only three Republican incumbents will be on the ballot in November: Ron Ramsey, Mike Williams, and Mark Norris. Longtime Sen. Ben Atchley (R-Knoxville) is retiring this year; his successor was effectively decided in the Republican primary, won by 32-year-old state Rep. Jamie Hagood (R-Knoxville.) And two-term Sen. Bill Clabough (R-Maryville) was defeated by a pro-life physician, Raymond Finney (R-Maryville), in the primary. Williams (R-Maynardville) is unopposed, while Norris (R-Collierville) faces token opposition in a heavily Republican district.
Ramsey (R-Blountville) faces a challenge from former county executive John McKamey (D-Piney Flats), but given that it's a heavily Republican district (only 38% for Gore in 2000), I'd expect Ramsey to win.
Of the eleven Democrats running for re-election, three are unopposed, and four face only token opposition. That leaves four races on which control of the state Senate hinges.
Sen. Tommy Kilby (D-Wartburg), who was elected in a 2003 special election, faces a well-financed challenge from businessman Jerry Sharp (R-Newcomb.) Sen. Larry Trail (D-Murfreesboro) is being challenged by insurance agent Jim Tracy (R-Shelbyville.) Sen. JoAnn Graves (D-Gallatin) faces a challenge from state Rep. Diane Black (R-Hendersonville.) All three sit in districts that voted 46% for Gore in 2000.
And John Wilder (D-Somerville), Tennessee's Senate Speaker since 1971, faces off against accountant Ron Stallings (R-Bolivar), who is self-financing his campaign. Wilder is widely expected to win, but Stallings's money and the fact that the district only voted 43% for Gore and includes rapidly suburbanizing Fayette County mean that it may be a race worth watching.
So in order to capture the state Senate, Republicans need to knock off two incumbent Democrats -- not an easy task in a state with a soft spot for incumbents. But any of the four could be knocked off, given that none are particularly safe. Wilder and Trail won with 55% of the vote in 2000, while Kilby just barely won his special election. It should be an interesting cycle -- at least, if you forget the fact that neither Presidential campaign is targeting Tennessee and that there's no statewide race on the ballot.