Daily Kos

Dole's recruitment failures

by kos

Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 01:56:00 PM PDT

Elizabeth Dole's tenure as head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee is already dead more than a year out. Her fundraising lags the Democrats' efforts in the Senate, and her recruitment?

Today, WV Republican Rep. Capito announced that she would not challenge Sen. Byrd.

Capito says she considered a possible run for months, but when she finally sat down with her family members they reached the same conclusion. "We just decided there will be a time for this, but this was not exactly the right time."

The "right time" is the next time there is an open senate seat in West Viriginia, and neither Democratic senator will likely run for reelection. She's a rising star in her state, and it's better she keep her House seat than to go down in flames against one of the most popular politicians in West Virginia today.

Capito's decision comes on the heels of North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven's decision to pass on a race against Dem Kent Conrad.  Vermont's Republican Governor Jim Douglas refused to take on Bernie Sanders. And so on. In fact, the NRSC's only high-profile challenger is one they wish would go away -- Florida's Katherine Harris. (The GOP has a strong candidate in the open Minnesota seat.)

Maybe it's the national mood -- we're seeing strong Democratic challengers arise in the House as well as Democrats sense a change in fortune. Or perhaps Dole is completely clueless. Or both. But in any case, we can rest assured that in the early going, our Chuck Schumer has beat the crap out of Dole -- in both money and candidate recruitment.

So long as we get our top-tier candidate in Ohio (Hackett is likely in, and Sherrod Brown is suddenly reconsidering his decision to forgo a race), and as long as we get a solid candidate in Nevada that would disprove rumors of a quid pro quo between Sens. Reid and Ensign, we're looking really good heading into 2006.

I'll do a rundown of the races tomorrow, but here's AnthonySF's take.

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  •  Capito (none / 0)

    Based on what Drew has been saying, I think Capito herself might be vulnerable.

    Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News

    by DavidNYC on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 01:56:18 PM PDT

  •  Dem Conrad Burns? Huh? n/t (none / 0)

    "Almost every desire a poor man has is a punishable offense." - Louis Ferdinand Celine

    by goneblank on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 01:56:29 PM PDT

  •  excellent bait, markos (none / 0)

    "as long as we get a solid candidate in Nevada that would disprove rumors of a quid pro quo between Sens. Reid and Ensign, we're looking really good heading"

    State Rep. Jeremy Kalin Energy, Transpo., Elections & Pub.Safety

    by JK Minnesota on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 01:57:08 PM PDT

    •  Ensign (none / 0)

      here are some quick facts about Senator Ensign [R] NV:

      He would be very very very hard to beat because in Nevada, there is a divide between Southern Nevada (the Las Vegas area) and Northen Nevada (rural, very Republican).  Ensign is a Republican from Southern Nevada, which locks up support from all off the Republicans in the north as well as lots of voters in the south.  I'm not saying he's totally unbeatable... but barring any scandals, he pretty much is.

      Think about this:  1998, Ensign took on Reid for Senate and Reid barely won by with a few hundred votes.  You're going to need someone as well-known and as strong as Reid to take out Ensign.  The only other person that could do that is perhaps Oscar Goodman, the Mayor of Las Vegas.  He hasn't said much about wanting to be a Senator, and even in hypothetical matchups, Goodman loses by quite a bit.

      Sept 29th.  WSJ/Gallup Poll
      Ensign: 48.1%
      Goodman: 38.8%

      However, there is a congressional district in Nevada, held by a weak Republican in a 50/50 district that is going UNCHALLENGED.  This guy, Porter (CD-03), uses vicious attack ads that smear his opponents and rides to victory on them.  He is also supported by Tom Delay because he is seen as one of the weakest members of COngress.  If a Democrat with political experience and the guts to fight back against his attacks ads takes on Porter, they'll win.  (Jim Gibson, Richard Perkins, I'm looking at you)

      by mbcarl on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:19:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ahem (none / 0)

    Uh, you might wanna correct the boo-boo about Hoeven passing on a run against "Dem Conrad Burns" </snarky proofreading>

    by bramish on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:00:24 PM PDT

  •  Darn! DavidNYC beat me to the post (none / 0)

    I was going to rant how Mike Callaghan can beat Shelley Capito in WV-02.

    And Daivd went ans stole my thunder.

    Callaghan is filing this week. The formal announcemnet event is tentaively scheduled for the 18th.

    Check the site for details. A big crowd would look good on TV!

    "mikecallaghan"

    Politics is the art of the possible.

    by pinhickdrew on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:01:03 PM PDT

  •  Is Liddy being criticized from within her own (none / 0)

    party? Anyone here travel in GOP insider circles?

    It's a neighborly day in this beautywood. Relentless!

    by ablington on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:01:35 PM PDT

  •  I am not so sure (none / 0)

    about that strong candidate in Minnesota. I think that Mark Kennedy is going to have a bit of a problem in this state that is turning bluer as each day passes.  

    I believe his close ties to the Bush administration is not going to do him any favors. And I don't see that Minnesota is going to want two republican senators.  

    by Finn on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:01:47 PM PDT

    •  I agree (none / 0)

      Yes, MN is a moderate state. But Kerry won with a majority last year and won by 1% more than GOre, the DFL picked up 12 House seats I think. There will probably be a strong Gov candidate. The GOP thinks Kennedy is best thing since slice bread, but I dont really see it. It wont be an easy race admittedly but Wetterling or Klobuchar strike me as strong candidates who can win.

      by jj32 on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:12:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Minnesotan here. I was about to... (none / 1)

      ...comment on that same part of Kos' otherwise excellent post, and then I saw this comment and the one directly below.

      In my opinion, Mark Kennedy is NOT a strong candidate, at all.  The main things he has going for him are:  he's an incumbent Congressman, he is relatively scandal-free, and he has a ton of support from BushCo, with the attendant $bucks$ that come with that turf.

      But his negatives are are high, too.  He's not a charismatic guy -- not even in the fake-y way that Norm Coleman or Gov. Tim Pawlenty, his BushCo pals in Minnesota, could be considered if you squint hard.

      And he IS getting called out on taking money from Tom DeLay.  You'll hear more and more of that if we have a decent oppostion candidate.

      And about that Dem candidate:  we have some decent possibilities.  For my money, none of them is a superstar, but all have a fine chance.

      The atmosphere turned around here in Minnesota in November 2004.   While the national election was difficult, it was a great day locally for Democrats.  We came charging back in the statehouse.  It seems that after a brief and ugly flirtation with BushCo and the GOP in general, Minnesota has come to its senses and is getting back to its populist Dem roots.  Poll after poll shows that Bush is VERY unpopular here.

      Finally, re Kennedy -- I saw him debate Patty Wetterling live last year.  Ms. Wetterling is a wonderful person, but was NOT prepared to run for that seat, which is in a pretty red part of Minnesota anyway.  Still, she gave Kennedy a good run for his money.  

      What struck me at the time was how blah a candidate Kennedy actually is.  He's anti-charismatic.  He gave canned answers with Rovian talking points, and looked weird and glassy-eyed.  Maybe he'll sharpen his act, but that BushCo dittohead act ain't gonna play here anymore, ESPECIALLY in a statewide race.  

      My bottom line for the MN. open seat: Kennedy is a weak candidate with a lot of money behind him.  And we have three announced candidates -- Klobuchar, Ciresi, and Wetterling (again) who could give him a very hard time indeed... and beat him if they run a good race.  

      JOHN McCAIN = George W. Bush's 3rd term.

      by chumley on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:27:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  As much as I would like a woman... (none / 0)

        senator from MN, and it is about time...I think Ciresi is by far the strongest candidate.  I thought he should have beat Dayton in the primary in 2000.  It really was a shame, because I do believe we would be looking at Ciresi running for his second term.

        Dayton, I agree with him most of time, except when he goes off on the flag burning issue and that ilk.  It really bothers me that he hasn't come out and been stronger on calling Bush out.  He has absolutely nothing to lose, so why he remains silent is a mystery.

        by Finn on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:40:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  A different take on Minnesota (none / 0)

    Rep. Mark Kennedy is not a strong candidate. He merely has a record of using really nasty advertising.

    I think the DFL (Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor party) candidate will have a very good chance of beating Kennedy.  

    by Haus on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:02:20 PM PDT

  •  Don't get cocky, kid. (none / 1)

    Keep working like we're 10 points behind!

    "When the President does it, it's not illegal" - Richard Nixon, 1974; US Congress, 2008

    by nightsweat on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:03:11 PM PDT

    •  right (none / 0)

      dont talk about the Democratic wave next year, do something to make it happen.

      by jj32 on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:13:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  true (none / 0)

        But keep in mind that, a year ahead of the election, talking about it IS making it happen.  The more buzz we create about a potential Democratic landslide, the more Republicans will decide that 2007 sounds like a great time to start "spending more time with the family," thus jarring loose some open seats and turning the landslide into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

        by cardinal on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:16:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  amen (none / 0)

        agree with you and the other response.

        By the way, check out Capito's opponent in WV-02.
        She is no shoe-in for reelection. Mike Callaghan can beat her and give us a win in a rural district in a swing state...two categories where we need to improve

        Politics is the art of the possible.

        by pinhickdrew on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:22:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, a huge porblem Dems have (none / 0)

      We tend to underestimate the Republicans too much to our own peril. They do a superb job with GOTV efforts which is a major factor in any race. Between now and next years's election, I wish Dems would study and research ways (maybe from the Repubs?) on vastly improving our GOTV on our side.

      Why our side does a poor job comparatively should be a matter of concern.

      The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in times of crisis, remain neutral.

      by ten10 on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:15:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hopefully (none / 0)

    Byrd can use all that money he's been raising to support fellow senatorial candidates.

    by lorax on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:04:12 PM PDT

  •  Anthony SF's Diary (none / 1)

    about the 2006 Senate races is worth reading. Well researched. Tennessee gets interesting. Could things be so bad for the GOP that a Dem could win in Tennessee?

    As the Bart Simpson once saw on a road sign, "Tennesseean is Tennebelievin."

    We are living in an interminable succession of absurdities imposed by the myopic logic of short-term thinking. Jacques Cousteau

    by supak on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:06:33 PM PDT

  •  Granted we can't rest at all right now (none / 0)

    but I do admit that this post made me druel at the thought of a Democratic Senate and a less-strong Republican House up against the floudering presidency of W.

    Feingold is my hero.

    by Marc in CA on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:06:37 PM PDT

  •  Who Recruited Cindy and Katrina? (none / 0)

    We are really nowhere near adequate candidate recruitment.

    It's just that the GOP is so super-pathetic in the face of all its chickenhawks coming home to roost, and finding nothing but a pile of skull and bones to land on.

    It's the reality, stupid!

    Blog: "Patterns That Connect" Current Dkos Diary: here

    by Paul Rosenberg on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:09:00 PM PDT

    •  I have to disagree (none / 0)

      That's part of it, but Schumer has done a pretty good job so far. He pushed Pederson and McCaskill into AZ and MO respectively, and Hackett looks in, in Ohio. Casey is leading in  PA, and I think Whitehouse can beat Chafee.

      by jj32 on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:16:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  How many Iraq vets do we have running? (none / 0)

    A good contingent, I hope. Throw the national security crap right back in the Republicans' faces!

    My dogs think we're all totally nuts, but how do I explain Daylight Savings Time to them?

    by Shiborg on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:10:05 PM PDT

  •  2006 (none / 0)

    It would seem impossible to not pick up substantial gains in the wake of the news recently.  There should be more repub disgraces to come in the next year.  The question is whether the dems can capitalize or wither away to the hardball tactics.

    by dkswerve on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:11:47 PM PDT

  •  When it rains it pours (none / 0)

    and at quite a fX

    Josh around at Joshing Politics

    by proudprogressiveCA on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:11:51 PM PDT

  •  Doles are a problem lately (none / 0)

    The Food and Drug Administration is warning people not to eat certain Dole pre-packaged salads that have been connected to an outbreak of E. coli infections in Minnesota.

    well it looks like the Liddy Dole pre-packaged candidates also have had a bit of that E. coli as well.

    He may talk like an idiot, and look like an idiot, but don't let that fool you: he really is an idiot...Groucho Marx

    by distributorcap on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:13:18 PM PDT

    •  Eliz Dole (none / 1)

      She is one of my senators (ugh!) and she has done nothing for my state except show up for photo-ops all "doled" up with extreme make-up.  How old is she?  Isn't it time for her retirement?  She is such a puppet of the neo-cons and bushco.

      by paulko on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:16:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Another Tarheel here (none / 1)

        Both Dole and Burr are simply dead weight to the people of North Carolina.  Add to that my Congresscritter, Sue Myrick, and you realize that the only reason that this state survives is because it is in the hands of the Democrats.

        "Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves." - William Pitt

        by blueinnc on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 04:04:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Dole's an idiot (none / 1)

    Nonetheless, she had a tough task recruiting candidates this year, and really shouldn't be blamed.  It's what we call the "strategic politician theory," which says that high-quality challengers tend to run in cycles in which their party is held in relatively high esteem (see also: strategic retirements).  So the lack of recruitment is indicative of the winds blowing strongly in our direction.

    by cardinal on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:13:49 PM PDT

  •  Don't forget Capito is beatable for her House seat (none / 0)

    Link to my diaries and check out Swing State Project and Our Congress for my rants on how beatable Capito is.

    The gist: we can shatter the myth of GOP invincibility in rural districts like WV-02.

    Mike Callaghan can take her down...but he needs our help.

    Politics is the art of the possible.

    by pinhickdrew on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:13:50 PM PDT

  •  Actually, (none / 0)

    the GOP did fairly well in open-seat (or appointed incumbent) recruiting--they just failed miserably at recruiting challengers to Dem opponents:

    1. Tennessee--Corker and Hilleary are both strong candidates.  Bryant not as much.  Any of them has a good shot at holding Frist's seat for the dark side.

    2. Minnesota--Kennedy is about the best they could have done for this seat barring an Arne Carlson or David Durenberger comeback.

    3. Maryland--Steele is the best possible GOPer and will give Cardin a close race.

    4. Vermont--Sure, they didn't get Douglas, but they got Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, the next best thing.  I don't understand the "Sanders will win in a walk" talk; on paper, this race seems competitive.  I guess I'll wait to see some polling.

    5. New Jersey--Tom Kean, Jr., is a great candidate for the GOPer and will make this race a toss-up to lean-Dem, whoever the appointed incumbent is.  IMO Richard Codey would be the best option for the Dems.

    The frogurt is also cursed. -8.25, -6.51

    by Superribbie on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:14:25 PM PDT

    •  I should say (none / 0)

      they failed miserbly at recruiting challengers to Dem "incumbents."

      The frogurt is also cursed. -8.25, -6.51

      by Superribbie on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:16:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The thing about Sanders (none / 0)

      is that Vermont is a really small state, and almost everybody loves Bernie here - left, right, whatever. He is very very popular, and smear campagins don't work so well when people know the guy you are smearing.

      Write Al Gore a letter asking him to run: The Honorable Al Gore 2100 West End Avenue Suite 620 Nashville, TN 37203

      by MonkeyDog102 on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:25:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  a fair point which chilled my gloating (none / 0)

      but they sure blew Florida.

      And Steele clearing 45% in Maryland would be a real surprise. Any GOP resources diverted to this race, with expensive DC and Baltimore media rates, would have been better spent elsewhere.

      MD is a lot like WV. The GOP doesn't have much bench strength in either.

      Politics is the art of the possible.

      by pinhickdrew on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:31:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maryland (none / 0)

        We just lost the gov race and this Senate race has a racial dynamic I really don't like--the wite Dem beats the black Dem in the primary to face a black GOPer.  

        The frogurt is also cursed. -8.25, -6.51

        by Superribbie on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 03:20:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  fair enough (none / 0)

          but O'Malley has the Baltimore machine. Even if Steele gets close, they can come up with enough votes to offset a strong run elsewhere a la Sauerbrey in what, 1994?

          The street operation in Baltimore is strong.

          Post NOLA, I have a hard time seeing major gains in the GOP's share of the black vote.

          Then again, maybe if they outbid us for the churches we could have some trouble. Just need to make sure plenty of street money is available. Put some new roofs on churches and we should be OK

          Politics is the art of the possible.

          by pinhickdrew on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 03:32:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Not the Senate... (none / 0)

    but Istook announced today for the Republican nomination for governor of Oklahoma.  He probably won't pose as big a challenge as JC Watts would have, but it's close.  The Oklahoma goverernorship is officially a race now.

    I know this doesn't have anything to do with Dole or the NRSC, but I thought I'd throw it out there.  I don't have enough info to make a diary on the subject.

    by Tony on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:14:28 PM PDT

  •  By the way, Capito and Delay are connected (none / 0)

    Capito has taken plenty of Delay's money in her three runs.

    We can tie her Wall Street Journal Republican hindquarters to the ethical stench as she is truly a Washington Republican insider beholden to out=of-state corporate interests at the expense of the residents of her district.

    Politics is the art of the possible.

    by pinhickdrew on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:16:29 PM PDT

  •  Golden rule of politics (none / 0)

    Do not forfeit.  Do not concede any seat.

    Two reasons:
    Upsets happen and you want to be on the beneficial end of one instead of on the losing end of one.

    Democratic voters deserve the opportunity to vote for Democrats.  Otherwise, why bother.

    -6.00/-7.18

    by TarheelDem on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:23:39 PM PDT

  •  I hate Elizabeth Dole . . . (none / 0)

    only slightly more than her miserable, scum-sucking partner, Richard Wingnut Burr.

    North Carolina.
    First in Flight.
    Last in Everything Else, including competent representation in the Senate.

    BlueNC.com

    by Anglico on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:24:07 PM PDT

    •  Could Be Worse (none / 0)

      Every time I think of Dole and Burr are the worst possible Senate pair ever, I think of poor Oklahoma-Jim "Outraged by the Outrage" Inhofe and that freakshow Coburn. Way worse than what us North Carolina folk have to deal with.

      by Fragamemnon on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 03:20:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Chaffee MUST go down (none / 0)


    That is a key Senate seat we must take.  Mike DeWine is second most important.  (I'm assuming Casey is a slam dunk.)

    We must focus our energies on taking these two seats, plus Casey and hopefully Hackett.  If we can hold Minnesota, that's a four seat pickup.  Boy would I love to see Frist lose too.  

    by WinSmith on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:26:26 PM PDT

  •  Another Reform Ohio Now plug... (none / 0)

    Paul Hackett would be great; I think Sherrod Brown would be great, too --

    But the GOP machine will be up to all their usual tricks next year, busily suppressing the Democratic vote --

    Unless we help Reform Ohio Now to pass their amendments!

    http://www.reformohionow.org

    They're looking for $$ for TV spots, and they're open to out of staters coming in to volunteer at election time...

    Great way to pave the road for a Dem pickup in the Senate next year!

    what would joe rauh do?

    by nbutter on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:31:01 PM PDT

  •  Katherine Harris (none / 0)

    Harris received $10,000 from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC in the 2004 election, btw.

    DeLay's Tainted Ten

    by Hail Ripley on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:33:02 PM PDT

  •  Could MN Kennedy be Facing a Blatz? (none / 0)

    Kennedy will have troubles in a statewide election.  Too many liberals and moderates to show like he did in his heavily conservative congressional district and now a recognized mean streak in campaign tactics inconsistent with the MN self-image of Minneosta-nice. There is also some problem from the creeping rot of Tom Delay's contributions to Kennedy. If the old guard GOP thinks Kennedy is going down, they might start looking elsewhere for a primary opponent (GOP convention ruled by far-right, so no hope for them there.)  

    There is some suspicion that retiring Chief Justice Kathleen Blatz would be an attractive candidate, but informed parties don't know whether she would want to put herself and her family through what will be an incredibly taxing campaign against either Klobuchar or Wetterling who are both popular and well funded democrats.

    Keep your eyes and ears open on this one.

    Think of the constitution as a levee. Think of our democracy as New Orleans.

    by Into The Woods on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:40:50 PM PDT

  •  Dole = Dumb (none / 0)

    Take it from a North Carolinian...

    Elizabeth Dole is an idiot.  She is a hollow politician, that does not care about her "home" state.

    Not surprised she is doing a bad job.  She needs Karl Rove to tell her what to do.

    by KickinIt on Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 02:41:14 PM PDT

  •  From another North Carolinian (none / 0)

    I can't help but engage in a little Schadenfreude--if it weren't for the way Reid is running circles around Frist, Chuck Schumer's schooling of Dole would be the most satisfying thing for us.

    The thing that mystifies me is why Liddy got that job just three years into her term.  Was Bob Dole calling in some chits?  I can't recall a senator getting that high a post this early into his/her term.  Whatever the case, we don't mind.

    Good thing is that this seat can help us in two ways to get the Senate back.  First, if Liddy keeps up her stunning performance at the NRSC, we at least get a tie.  And if Mike Easley runs against her in 2008, I say he mops the floor with her.  Is it too early to draft him?

    The Repubs distort, but we will not abide.

    by Christian Dem in NC on Tue Oct 04, 2005 at 01:15:10 AM PDT

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