Breaking: UK accuses Iran

While everyone is busy debating The Miers Incident, here's what the other hand is doing.

So Iran really is going to be the bad guy after all. Assuming this isn't just a random outburst - and if it is, you'd think after three and a half years in Iraq someone in authority would have noticed those Iranians doing war-pretext evil things a little sooner than than this - this could plausibly be a hint about how this one is going to be played. (More below.)

There's no need for extended comment or analysis, beyond noting that using the UK is a minor stroke of genius. It takes some of the heat off the White House, which can now appear to be disinterested and nobly devoted to furthering the cause of peace, freedom, democracy, and huge bloody piles of dead 'insurgents.'

The important question is - is BushCo really going to be this stupid?

As a first play this implies a direction, but not - mercifully - a public commitment. But it's hard not to see this as an escalation in a war of words that's intended eventually to turn into an exchange of live ammunition.

So I wonder if it's a test to see how opinion lines up. Having been to Iraq war demo in London, I cannot see Blair riding out an Iran attack. Protests would be off the scale. But I thought Iraq couldn't be justified either, so it's easy to misunderestimate the extent of stupidity among the high and mighty here.

As for Washington - who knows? With a drunken horticultural accident on the loose anything is possible.

So - we're left with is this: A charitable interpretation is that it's just a blip. A less charitable interpretation is there's strategy here, and the pieces are being lined up for the long-planned smackdown.

Which is it? Take the poll...

•  Fucked

  I can't believe we may actually be at war with Iran in the coming months.  But then again, I could have never believed that we'd be having serious debates in America about whether it is right to torture peope?  Or whether it is right to hold people without access to lawyers or trials?  Fucked I say.  We're fucked.

  by BostonJoe on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 07:04:58 AM PDT

•  As The Onion put it back in March...

  (They're always way ahead of reality...)

  Bush Announces Iraq Exit Strategy: 'We'll Go Through Iran'

  by Bob Johnson on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 07:07:00 AM PDT

  •  Someday the Onion wiil..,

    be bound and stored in volumes next to Nostradamus on the library shelves.

    by irate on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 07:10:20 AM PDT

•  Of course, there's also this

  From the Calcutta Telegraph via Sully:

  "In deciding to vote with the West and not abstaining along with Russia, China, Brazil and South Africa, what weighed with the Prime Minister was the absolute imperative for India to secure its interests in the Gulf and not the desire to protect the July 18, 2005, Indo-US nuclear agreement, according to diplomats engaged in the negotiations that led to the IAEA resolution yesterday.

  Top-ranking Americans have told equally top-ranking Indians in recent weeks that the US has plans to invade Iran before Bush's term ends. In 2002, a year before the US invaded Iraq, high-ranking Americans had similarly shared their definitive vision of a post-Saddam Iraq, making it clear that they would change the regime in Baghdad.

  On the last day of his stay in New York this month, Singh made public his fears for the safety of nearly four million Indians in the Gulf in the event of diplomacy failing to persuade Iran away from a confrontation with the US and others on the nuclear issue.

  Singh knows that whatever he has done on the economic front in the last year and a half as Prime Minister and much of what he did as finance minister in the 1990s will be under threat if the Gulf was plunged into another war."

  Take with a grain of salt-- there's plenty of reason for the Indian Prime Minister to head fake a coming war-- but still a little scary nonetheless.

  by WAmod on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 07:16:53 AM PDT

•  asdf

  I think there is a fair measure of desperation surrounding this "revelation"; although it should be noted that the language is sufficiently hedged to allow some doubt as to how credible this is - "may" is the word that the BBC is using in its broadcasts. It's also a real stretch to believe that Lebanese Hizbullah is sending weaponry to Southern Iraq via Iran, when there is no shortage of materiel and expertise already on the ground. I'm not saying that Hizbullah isn't performing a consultancy role - but their trade-mark was always the vehicle borne suicide bomb/truck bomb.

  There have been persistent allegations of Iranian involvement in the Sunni insurgency - coming from the US - which are not credible; however, there is without doubt a serious Iranian political, intelligence and covert ops presence throughout the new Iraqi government, and at local level in the Shia South. It always helps if the main governing parties ( and this includes the Kurds ) were long-standing Iranian allies going back to the 1970's and 80's. This is also partly due to Iran's "forward defence" strategy with regards to countering the possibility of the US using Iraq as a staging point for military incursions into Iran, and as a deterrent to US military aggression ( if you want to attack us, we'll simply cut off your supply lines from Kuwait!).

  Obviously, Blair/MoD are beginning to follow the US rhetorical trajectory of blaming the violence on external actors - it becomes politically very difficult to have to admit that the actors ranged against you are in fact Iraqis - and this is even more so in the South, where the Shia are supposedly "friendly"; and they are - as long as the UK keeps its nose out of their political affairs, and doesn't take sides in the factional disputes between the Sadrist, Sciri, Fadila factions, then there shouldn't be too much of a problem. The problem is that there is now a slow-burn collision course between the UK and Iran due to the stall in the nuclear negotiations.

  Unfortunately, the MoD looks like it is trying to be proactive, in the way that the US was in 2003, and is going to sow the seeds of a widely-based uprising against itself. Bear in mind that the MoD only has about 9000 troops on the ground, and irrespective of how well trained and well armed the troops are, they would be swallowed up very quickly if they made too many mis-steps. I suspect that the Iranians can mobilise at least 20,000 - 40,000 men already in place in Iraq within 48 hours; and no doubt there would be many more willing recruits in the cause of Shia solidarity. It's also interesting to note that in the final week of September there was a spate of attacks on US convoys in the Basra, Safwan and Shaibah areas - the implicit message is, don't overstep your mark or we'll kill your supply lines.

  by londanium on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 07:19:42 AM PDT

  •  We read the same message

    That was my take on the attacks last month.  The US really doesn't have many cards left to play, except the Joker.

    by Knut Wicksell on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 07:43:35 AM PDT

  •  Hezbollah's most effective weapon is the IED.

    Hezbollah regards it's greatest victory as driving out the Israeli army occupying southern Lebanon. This was not achieved with truck bombs but with roadside bombs similar to those used against the British army in southern Iraq.
    Having said that and given the undoubted technological capabilities of the Iraqis, I can see little point in manufacturing explosive devices in Lebanon for them to be transported to via Iran to Iraq. It would make far more sense to pass plans with instructions across.
    The Guardian has a report on this today:
    There are differing views within the British intelligence community as to the level of Tehran's involvement. British military sources insisted last night there was no hard evidence that the explosives technology came from Iran. Defence sources suggested that blaming the IRGC for supplying the explosives technology was going too far. Other military officials said there was "so much expertise in Iraq" the bombs could have been made by former members of Saddam Hussein's security forces.
    The BBC is now reporting:
    The official who was the source of the accusation in a briefing for correspondents had previously been much more circumspect.
    This time he was quite open and direct. And having just come from a meeting with the prime minister, he was not speaking by accident.
    He spoke of the "explosively shaped projectiles" which were now such a threat to British armoured vehicles.
    

    by casualworker on Thu Oct 06, 2005 at 04:03:06 AM PDT

•  Could it be true?

  I'm in two minds on this. It might be genuine? We are talking about attacks in a majority Shia area, so it would be a lot tougher for Al Qaeda et al to operate in that area. If it is Iran, then there's a whole other world of problems, because we've not just lost the Sunnis, but we have to worry about the Shias turning on us as well.

  by Expat Briton on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 07:25:15 AM PDT

•  I've said it before,

  and I'll say it again:

  When Jack Straw (the poodle's poodle) says that war with Iran is "unthinkable," you know that he means "It's on, and we're in."

  Blair will survive it easily.  What are the Brits going to do, vote Tory?  Furthermore, do not, repeat do not underestimate the degree to which Britons and Europeans loathe the Iranians.

  by corvo on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 07:26:33 AM PDT

  •  asdf

    And do not underestimate the degree to which the UK foreign office and MoD are scared shitless by memories of the battle of Kut.

    And this time the "natives" are much better armed, much better organised, and there are far fewer colonial levies who will do the dying.

    By the end of this year the UK troop contingent will be even more isolated as the Polish, Ukrainian and Italian contingents are heading for the exits. The Danes may not be too far behind and the unarmed Japanese are currently confined to base twiddling their thumbs. The US has handed over security in Najaf and Karbala to the Iranian-allied locals. 9000 UK troops operating, when they can, in an ever-expanding security vacuum ( well, security for them ) must be keeping many a Whitehall mouse up at night, fretting that their political masters might well be engineering another military disaster through optimistic inattention to the lessons of history.

    by londanium on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 07:43:54 AM PDT

•  There's more

  The BBC has a more in-depth story on this new development: "The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the technology had come from Hezbollah in Lebanon via Iran and produced an '
  'explosively shaped projectile.'

  "He said that dissidents from the Mehdi army, a militia controlled by the radical Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr, were suspected of carrying out the attacks."

  Whenever you read, "the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity,"  be nervous.  Very nervous!

  Here's why:

  "It was that arrest which sparked off an anti-British protest in Basra recently."

  You see?  Flat-out lie.  It was the rescue mission that really sparked the anti-UK molotov cocktail-throwing in Basra!  Of course, the BBC fails to point out that part of the story...

  It gets better - check out this article in the Scotsman where the unidentified UK official claims "that there was evidence the Iranians were now in contact with Sunni Muslim insurgent groups fighting the coalition forces in Iraq" and that "although Iran is Shia Muslim, the official said it now appeared that elements in Tehran were in contact with Sunni Muslim insurgent groups across the border in Iraq.

  "Sunni Muslims linked to al Qaida have been blamed for trying to ignite a civil war with the majority Shias, who have been the victims of some of the worst of the recent suicide bomb attacks."

  OK, which is it?  Muqtada or the Sunnis?  It appears that Iran is helping everyone, huh?

  I think this is definitely an amazing piece of poor reporting, abuse of anonymity, and now the spread of accusations that could be the shot across the bow in terms of Iran.

  Couple this stuff with the fact that the leading moderate on Iran's nuclear negotiations team has quit, and we are in deep "shite."

  by LITBMueller on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 07:42:02 AM PDT

•  Check the info out in this case (Iran, Rice)

  Please read this amazing info, we need to prevent a WWWIII that according to the info could happen in 2006 if BUsh continues his military and foreign policies.
  http://www25.brinkster.com/chancede/Cnotes.html for the info below

  CONTACT 372
  [Friday, January 14, 2005, 00:55 a.m.]
  Contact person: Ptaah
  German excerpt: http://www.figu.org/de/figu/bulletin/s16/weltgeschehen.htm

  George W. Bush - believes he is God's deputy on the Earth to rid the world of bad people & all non-Christian believers especially Muslims; is preparing plans for attacking Iran where U.S. spies already operate
  Warning the people by predictions has been fruitless over the past 30 years of Meier's attempts
  Possibility of World War III (WW3/WWIII) in 2006 according to old prophesies
  Condoleeza Rice: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condoleeza_Rice
  Tsunami in Southeast Asia on December 26, 2004: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake - 116,406 additional people discovered dead; 2,312 additional people lost their lives from December 31, 2004 to January 13, 2005 at 6:10 p.m. due to indirect effects of the disaster (disease, suicide); total of 359,796 people have died since the tsunami (as of 6:10 p.m. on January 13, 2005

  The Plejaren have made specific comments regarding the religious delusions of Condaleesza Rice and George W. Bush who they label as the most dangerous leader to have ever lived and the greatest threat to world security at this time. The following is from  

  contact 372, Friday, January 14th, 2005, 12.55 AM, excerpted in FIGU Special Bulletin no.16 ( Extraterrestrial Plejaren Leaders Comment on U.S. American President Bush, the Tsunami, Overpopulation and more.)

  Ptaah: The man Bush is megalomaniacal and of the firm persuasion that he is God's representative on Earth and must free the world from all evil. But (the fact) that he himself presently is indeed the worst evil, in regard to war and terror, is completely repressed in his sectarian delusion.

   In this he is imprisoned (with the idea) that he also will exterminate all other beliefs that do not correspond to his own sectarian belief, whereby he has Islam quite especially in his sights. In this sense his delusional imagination plays the greatest role, that he must seize power in the Islamic world in order to bring everything under American and Christian control.

  In regard to this, the next move for him is that he must build a band of American control from Afghanistan to Iraq. And between both these countries lies only Iran, who is interested in building nuclear weapon technology. But exactly that leads Bush to a mendacious pretext to allow plans to be formulated for an attack on Iran.

   He has already behaved in the same form in Iraq, whereby the case in Afghanistan was similar. Unfortunately, what will actually come about from that cannot be finally ascertained, because various factors still lie open, so that it does not allow the entirety to be recognized in a clear light. However, it stands indisputably clear that already US-American secret commandos carry on operations and espionage etc in Iran.

   In a conversation between Plejaren commander Quetzal and Billy Meier, recorded in 1989 they reveal knowledge of plans by George Bush senior and junior and cohorts to organize a second war in Iraq, and their related scheme (including ballot fraud to organize the election of George Bush junior to make it happen in order to secure the oil resources of Iraq . Quetzal and Billy also talk at that time, 1989, of the coming destruction of the World Trade Centre with the use of commercial airplanes causing thousands of people to die, and with the knowledge of George Bush Junior and his various trusted criminal cohorts, who did nothing to prevent it.  

  From the 230th contact, 11th October 1989,

  Billy: Monstrous, really monstrous. It would also be just as monstrous if/when the world trade centre would be destroyed by terrorists with captured commercial airplanes, through which thousands of people would die, that Bush junior - and various of his criminal trusted ones- knew that then, however undertook nothing against it. A criminal act that gains Bush the upper hand and he can let lose against Islam, naturally always under the cloak that they want to free the USA and the world from terrorism. That it would be the Bushes who would bring the greatest terror over the world, at least for the next 15 years, would not be discussed.

  From the 231st contact, 9th November 1989,
  Quetzal: 38. Bush junior and Blair would plot with one another against Iraq, whereby Bush, will avenge his father's defeat in the Gulf War through a new war against Saddam Hussein, as already would be resolved by both Bushes and their closest followers, to which also the highest positions of the CIA belong, if the plotted war in 1991 would not bring the desired results.

  Interesting info on energy from the  case (any experts please comment):

  On another topic, the Meier contacts corroborate Greer's evidence regarding the reality of so-called free energy or "quantum zero point" energy which can be taken from the space all around us. Greer tells how technologies have been developed in secret which, if put to use for the good of humanity, would entirely replace the need for polluting fossil fuels, etc. Plejaren leader, Ptaah, explained in1990 on the 238th contact, that the entire universal space is full of electrons, and the space is not simply empty, as the lay person erroneously thinks, and that this has already been known by Earthly scientists for a very long time. However, electrons exist not only in one kind or form, rather in very many different forms. He said that on the Earth there is no longer a secret about this because they already authorized scientists for a long period of time to receive appropriate (thought) impulses.

  Ptaah: In order to answer your question properly, may I explain to you that our forefathers uncovered the principle of electron energy that is available on all planets and stars as well as in all life forms, as it also is in inexhaustible form in the entire universe.

  412. Tachyon propulsion as well as also beam propulsion and anti-matter propulsion, as well as our newest propulsion possibilities with transmitters, are founded on electron energy, that we have already used for many thousands of years in always more perfected form.

  In this conversation Billy realizes that essentially an electron impulse drive could be activated which would find a hold on the electrons in free space, against which, through the electron vibrations/oscillations, it would be repelled and moved forward. He realized that Ptaah's information also explains why the Plejaren craft never lack energy, either in space or on a planet, and also how it is possible that they divert the light around their ships to make them appear invisible. And also he concludes that, because they employ a shell, a kind of cloak, of electron oscillations, the Plejaren can travel along at unrestricted speeds without being roasted by the heat that would otherwise come about from the friction caused by traveling through the atmosphere.

  Billy also goes on to explain that electron power should replace atomic power on Earth, and that it would solve the pollution problem, replacing the use of oil and diesel with independently electron powered air and land vehicles, and that medical scientists should get behind the problem of electron medicine because through certain electronic effects not only can any sickness be healed, rather also life can be increased by hundreds of years at which point it should be possible to live as long as the Plejaren.

  All this information is located at http://www.gaiaguys.net/CSETIneedstoknow.htm

  by bdevil89 on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 08:16:04 AM PDT

•  Mmmm, major war in the Middle East

  The good thing is that we will have much less problems with obesity here in the Western world as the following lack of oil will make much driving unaffordable for most people and food production will take a major hit. Thank you mr bush! </snark>

  by Johannes on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 08:41:07 AM PDT

  •  We'll still be obese

    after we wind up eating our now-useless cars.

    by ThatsNotFunny on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 09:10:47 AM PDT