Mark DiCamillo of the Field Poll has released their latest poll of Californians on Bush's job performance. He finds Bush's approval ratings at 52%, up from 46% last September. You can find the PDF here:
Field Poll 1/14/04. He polled 400 registered voters by telephone, MOE is +/- 5.0 percentage points.
The poll asked about Bush's approval on the economy, handling of Iraq, handling of terrorism, and general direction of the country, all of which are up among voters in general, Democrats, Republicans, and others. The question that's notably missing from this poll is Bush's re-election numbers; as many of you know, his approval numbers are generally 5-10% points higher than his re-elect numbers.
Frankly I don't think these numbers are anything to worry about. I would boil down the apparent increase in support for Bush to the following: 1) the Gropinator is giving a shiny new face for the Republican party (which I think is temporary given the horrendous budget cuts coming); 2) there's been little or no campaigning from the Dem presidential candidates to remind people of how awful Bush is; 3) the capture of Saddam has made people think the war is over (seee his Iraq approval numbers); 4) people are desperately hoping the CA economy is getting better, because if it isn't the entire country is fucked. Who know, maybe it really is getting better...somewhere.
I'll put some excerpts from the poll in the extended comments. Tomorrow comes the Dem presidential candidates CA Field poll - woohoo!
Theresa in Oakland
The numbers listed below are from today's poll; the Sept 2003 poll results are shown in parentheses where available. There's more numbers in the poll than what I posted here; go check the report for the whole thing.
Overall job appraisal of Bush as President
Approve Disapprove
Total Statewide: 52 (46) 42 (48)
Democrats: 29 (19) 62 (75)
Republicans: 82 (83) 12 (13)
Non-partisans/others: 49 (42) 50 (49)
Bush's handling of the economy
Approve Disapprove
Total Statewide: 49 (39) 46 (55)
Democrats: 27 70
Republicans: 76 16
Non-partisans/others: 48 48
LA County: 37 56
Other Southern CA: 63 34
SF Bay Area: 34 61
Other Northern CA: 58 33
Bush's handling of Iraq
Approve Disapprove
Total Statewide: 51 (40) 45 (52)
Democrats: 30 67
Republicans: 81 13
Non-partisans/others: 42 55
Direction of the country
Right direction Wrong Track
Total Statewide: 47 (44) 44 (49)
Democrats: 34 58
Republicans: 67 23
Non-partisans/others: 40 50