The latest California Field Poll was
diaried earlier today. The
Field Poll is the gold standard of polls in California, and with good reason. They have published their
track record examining the differences between their
final Field Poll before elections and the ensuing election results. Just for fun, I used their track record and did some spreadsheet tricks to determine the odds of each proposition passing and what the expected result is.
The Field Poll just asks if people will vote yes or no, and does not push those who don't know. From the election results, the median vote for the undecideds is 77% "no". Only once since 1996 has a proposition received a lower "no" percentage than Field reported in their final poll. That one case was the "Defense of Marriage" proposition, where respondents no doubt lied about their intent to the pollster out of shame.
We still need to GOTV, but things are looking very good for us on Arnold's initiatives:
74 (stick it to the teachers): 10/25-10/30: 44% yes, 50% no
Odds of passage: <1%; Median expected outcome: 54.6% NO
75 (screw the unions): 10/25-10/30: 40% yes, 50% no
Odds of passage: <1%; Median expected outcome: 57.7% NO
76 (make the governor an emperor): 10/25-10/30: 32% yes, 60% no
Odds of passage: 0%; Median expected outcome: 66.2% NO
77 (the only way Arnold can think of to try to get more Republicans elected): 10/25-10/30: 35% yes, 51% no
Odds of passage: 0%; Median expected outcome: 61.8% NO
Keep leaning on all your friends and neighbors between now and next Tuesday, but it looks like we can look forward to California's voters kicking their bully governor in the teeth!