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With the Dems' strong showings across the board yesterday (wins in both Gov. races, 1-2 seat gains in both the VA and NJ assemblies, the VA Atty Gen. race heading for a recount, and the resounding defeat of the Cali initiatives), the Dems momentum only continues and builds going into 2006.  The talking heads have begun to discuss the serious possibility if not probability that one or both House of Congress will flip in '06; "unnamed Republican consultants" have said the same thing.

The Senate picture is relatively simple to see (if a majority there is more difficult than the House IMO): we have strong challengers already in dead heats or better in the polls to GOP Sens. Rick Santorum (PA), Lincoln Chafee (RI), Mike DeWine (OH), and Claire McCaskill (MO).  We have strong candidates holding GOP Sens. Conrad Burns (MT) and Jon Kyl (AZ) under 50%.  We have a dead heat in the Tennessee open seat race.  Finally, we have an intriguing challenger just announced in Nevada and an increasing likelihood of a Trent Lott retirement in Mississippi.  All of our incumbents look to be in good shape, and we consistently lead in our open seats in Vermont and Maryland.  The lone toss-up on our side is the Minnesota open seat race and the lone question mark is the New Jersey seat that will be filled by a Corzine appointee who, presumably, will attempt to defend it against a strong GOPer.  Out of this, we need to net 7 seats.

My main focus, however, has been on the House.  There, we need a net gain of 15 for control, but the playing field is far larger and House Elections are affected far more by the national mood, which looks to be our biggest asset heading into 2006.  

One month ago, I ranked 74 seats that we have the potential to win in 2006 based on various empirical data in order of chance to win.  I did the same for 42 seats we are defending that the GOP at least has a theoretical chance to win.  I did so largely without knowledge of or evaluating challengers.  

Today, I update those rankings taking the challengers into consideration.  I have added six GOP seats to that list based on challenger strength.  Each of these challengers have already raised at least $90,000, and four are running in races that just missed the original list.  Another is a statewide candidate in a state where the Dems have had success recently (Montana).  The sixth is a huge longshot, but features an insane incumbent and a very energetic challenger who is already on the air with ads (Bryan Kennedy in WI-05).  On the GOP side, only two challengers in races not on the original list have shown this kind of fundraising strength, and those two are challenging Reps. Danny Davis (IL-07)(Chicago Loop) and Barney Frank (MA-04)(Part of Boston and Brookline).  Those two aren't losing under any circumstances.  I'll deal with the GOP seats now; ours later.

I also drop from the lists races where there is no challenger as of yet.  Recruiting is still going on, and if candidates surface, these races will be added back in.  This, however, is how things stand today:

Potential Pickups

1. Iowa 01 (Prev. rank: 1) (Dix/Whalen/Kennedy (R) vs. Braley/Gluba/Dickinson (D))
This open seat features crowded primaries with well-funded candidates on both sides.  The strongest candidates are probably State Rep. Bill Dix (R) and Attorney Bruce Braley (D).  Braley is the leading fundraiser in the race ($306,000), and the seat leans Dem.

2. Colorado 07 (2) (O'Donnell/Paschall (R) vs. Perlmutter/Lamm (D))
This open seat is a classic swing district.  The Dems have a competitive primary between two former legislators, Ed Perlmutter and Peggy Lamm.  The GOP nominee will be either Colorado Higher Education Commission Chair Rick O'Donnell or Jefferson County Treasurer Mark Paschall.  

3. Indiana 09 (3) (Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) vs. Former Rep. Baron Hill (D))
The third race between Sodrel and former Dem Rep. Baron Hill will be another marquee matchup.  Hill won narrowly in 2002; Sodrel won by a ridiculously narrow margin last time.  In a Dem year, Hill should win.

4. Connecticut 04 (5) (Rep. Chris Shays (R) vs. Westport Selectwoman & '04 Nominee Diane Farrell (D))
Shays barely escaped the first matchup between the two.  In a Dem year, Farrell looks poised to finally oust Shays and capture this Dem-leaning district.

5. New Mexico 01 (16) (Rep. Heather Wilson (R) vs. New Mexico Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid (D))
Wilson has won narrow races against second-tier opponents, often with assists from the Greens, since her first win in a 1998 special.  This year she draws the top potential challenger with nary a Green in sight--and in a Dem year to boot.  Say sayonara, nipplewoman.

6. Pennsylvania 06 (9) (Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) vs. '04 Nominee Lois Murphy (D))
This rematch of a 51-49 race from 2004 should only get better for our side with the improved fortunes of the Dems and with Ed Rendell and Bob Casey expected to romp here at the top of the ticket.  Murphy has already raised $433,000 and has $350,000 on hand.

7. Connecticut 02 (7) (Rep. Rob Simmons (R) vs. Former State Rep. and '02 Nominee Joe Courtney (D))
Simmons sits in the most Democratic district held by a GOPer in the nation.  He won in 2000 in a fluke and has been fortunate to see two GOP-friendly election cycles since.  Courtney has raised $356,000 and has $308,000 on hand.

8. Illinois 06 (6) (State Sen. Peter Roskam (R) vs. Cegelis/Scott (D))
This is retiring douchebag Henry Hyde's seat, and Christine Cegelis is trying to build on her 44% in 2004, when she held Hyde to the lowest percentage of his career.  First, however, she must defeat college professor Lindy Scott in the primary and then defeat well-connected and well-financed Hyde heir apparent Roskam.  It remains to be seen what effect, if any, Roskam's ties to Tom DeLay will have.  The Chicago suburbs are trending hard Dem.

9. Washington 08 (4) (Rep. Dave Reichert (R) vs. Burner/Gordon (D))
Reichert is a freshman who narrowly won this swing district when it was open last time.  The Dem challengers, former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner and attorney Randy Gordon are unknowns who must build name recognition.  Neither has had great fundraising (not bad, but not great).  Still, you gotta figure that this one will be tight when all is said and done.

10. Wisconsin 08 (10) (Gard/McCormick/Lawrie (R) vs. Kagen/Wall/Nusbaum/Langan (D))
This open seat race is to replace Rep. Mark Green, who is running for Gov.  This Green Bay district is traditionally GOP, but the Dems won it the last time it was open, in 1996.  The fact that it's a Dem year will help.  Gard is the state House Speaker and the clear favorite on the GOP side.  Kagen (a doctor), Nusbaum (a former county executive and mayor of DePere), and Wall (a business consultant) all have had impressive fundraising totals, almost catching Gard and easily surpassing the other GOPers, including state Rep. McCormick.

11. Pennsylvania 08 (8) (Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) vs. Murphy/Lang/Warren (D))
Fitzpatrick is a freshman incumbent who beat a weak Dem in this swing district in 2004.  The three Dems include two veterans (Murphy and Lang), and a party-switching former GOP Bucks County Commissioner (Warren).  Murphy is an Iraq war vet.  None of the three have had much fundraising success thus far.

12. California 50 (14) (One of 8 GOPers vs. '04 Nominee Francine Busby (D))
This is the seat of retiring (and future jailbird) Rep. Randy Cunningham.  The Cunningham scandal and a chaotic, bloody GOP primary have put this formerly noncompetitive San Diego County district firmly in play.  The only GOPer who has reported any serious fundraising is State Rep. Mark Wyland, who has raised $252,000 to Busby's $248,000.

13. Minnesota 06 (15) (Krinkie/Knoblauch/Bachmann/Esmay (R) vs. Tinklenberg/Mortensen (D))
This open seat was held by Mark Kennedy, who is running for the Senate.  2004 nominee Patty Wetterling ran a great race here last year, but she, too, opted for the Senate race and may well face Kennedy again, this time statewide.  The GOP has a fight among three state legislators and a rich guy; the Dems have a classic battle between a moderate, established pol (Tinklenberg) and an underfunded more liberal outsider (Mortensen).  Tinklenberg is the favorite and should match up well against whoever emerges on the GOP side.

14. North Carolina 11 (20) (Rep. Charles Taylor (R) vs. Former NFL Quarterback Heath Shuler (D))
In addition to being something of a celebrity, Shuler is looking like a pretty damn good candidate against an incumbent with baggage who we came somewhat close to defeating the last few times.  Plus, Dems did very well in Asheville (biggest city in the district) yesterday.  Shuler has nearly caught Taylor in fundraising and actually has a rare challenger cash-on-hand advantage.

15. Indiana 08 (42) (Rep. John Hostettler (R) vs. Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D))
This race is one of the biggest movers, partly because I put it too low to begin with, partly because of events, and partly because of fundraising totals.  As noted on the front page a couple days ago, Hostettler is one of seven to vote against the Katrina aid package; Ellsworth has been front and center in responding to the recent tornado.  The contrast is a juicy one, and one I expect the campaign to highlight.  Ellsworth also has both outraised Hostettler and has a cash-on-hand advantage of over 4:1.  While Hostettler never raises or spends much on his campaigns, this is a big discrepancy even for him, especially this early.
16. Texas 22 (59) (Rep. Tom DeLay (R) vs. Former Rep. Nick Lampson (D))
The biggest mover on the list, for obvious reasons.  Every indication is that the indicted DeLay actually intends to run for re-election.  This has all the signs of the 1994 Dan Rostenkowsi-Michael Flanagan race on Chicago's North Side.  The only difference, Lampson is a helluva lot better candidate than Flanagan (who lost by 28% to Rod Blagojevich in 1996) ever was.

17. Florida 09 (12) (State Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R) vs. Rublee/Mitchell/Busansky/Taylor (D))
Retiring Rep. Michael Bilirakis is attempting to hand off the seat to his son.  The Dems are all unknowns at this point, but Rublee has a good moderate profile (and has raised $76,000) and Busansky is a former county commissioner.  This race has the potential to be top tier because of the fairly balanced nature of the district (slight GOP lean), but may not get there.

18. Iowa 02 (13) (Rep. Jim Leach (R) vs. College Professor David Loebsack (D))
Like Iowa 01, this is a lean Dem district (even more so).  Unlike, the 1st, the GOP has an incumbent.  Also unlike the 1st, the Dems do not have either a top-tier candidate who is already known or a strong fundraiser with the potential to get known.  Loebsack has raised $49,000 to date.  While Leach never raises or spends much, Loebsack needs to step it up to put himself in a position where the tide can pull him over the top.

19. Florida 22 (35) (Rep. Clay Shaw (R) vs. State Sen. Ron Klein (D))
On-again off-again target Clay Shaw has his hands full this year.  He largely escaped notice last time after the GOP gerrymander shored him up and made his swing district more GOP, but now likely faces the Democratic Leader in the state Senate, who has raised a whopping $968,000 to date, with $840,000 on hand.  Klein has outraised the prolific fundraiser Shaw.  It should be noted that Klein faces primary opposition from veteran John Glassie and college professor Robert Watson.

20. Ohio 18 (23) (Rep. Bob Ney (R) vs. Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer (D))
This race may jump up much higher depending on what happens with the Abramoff investigation; Ney is in it with Abramoff up to his eyeballs.  Even if nothing changes, Sulzer is a strong candidate (the only top-tier challenger the Dems have in Ohio as of this writing).

21. Connecticut 05 (19) (Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) vs. State Sen. Chris Murphy or Waterbury Bd. of Alderman Pres. Paul Vance (D))
Although this is the most Republican seat in Connecticut, it still leans Dem overall.  While Johnson is a strong incumbent without any real baggage, Murphy (assuming he gets the nom) is the strongest candidate she's ever faced other than Rep. Jim Maloney in 2002.  Murphy has already raised $253,000 and has $234,000 on hand.

22. Colorado 04 (27) (Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) vs. State Rep. Angie Paccione (D))
Musgrave is a lightning rod for controversy who has narrowly won what should be a GOP seat.  Can she survive in a non-GOP year?  The Dems recruited a strong challenger for the third time in a row, and the signs are that funding will not be a problem this time.

23. New York 29 (Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) vs. Former Navy Officer Eric Massa (D))
Kuhl won an open seat contest in 2004 in this upstate district which is arguably the most GOP in the state (which isn't saying that much).  Kuhl has a lot of baggage, and Massa is a much better candidate than Sam Barend, the '04 nominee.  The upset in the Corning mayor's race by a Dem that Massa publicly supported is a good sign.  Massa's fundraising has been fairly impressive ($96,000).

24. Nevada 02 (24) (Gibbons/Heller/Angle (R) vs. State University System Regent Jill Derby (D))
This is the district that's basically all of Nevada except Las Vegas and its suburbs.  This race is as high as it is because Derby is a strong recruit and because open seats tend to go to the party with the national wind at their back.  Nonetheless, the GOP has a top notch field here--Gibbons and Angle are state Reps. And Heller is the Secretary of State.  Additionally, Gibbons is the wife of outgoing Rep. (and Gov. candidate) Jim Gibbons.  

25. Indiana 02 (29) (Rep. Chris Chocola (R) vs. '04 Nominee Joe Donnelley (D))
This is a swing district formerly represented by Dem Tim Roemer.  Donnelley did respectably in the GOP year (especially in Indiana) of 2004 and is positioned to give Chocola a tougher rematch.  He's raised $186,000 and has $160,000 on hand.

26. New Hampshire 02 (22) (Rep. Charles Bass (R) vs. '04 Nominee Paul Hodes (D))
This is another swing district trending Dem, and Hodes has the name rec built up in his initial run.  His fundraising has been so-so so far.

27. North Carolina 08 (25) (Rep. Robin Hayes (R) vs. Iraq War vet Tim Dunn (D))
This race could move up if the "fighting Dem" thing takes off.  Thus far, Dunn seems like a decent candidate, but the fundraising numbers were low.  The Dems held this seat until Hayes won it in 1998.  He beat back strong challenges in 2000 and '02.  The jury is still out on Dunn, but a strong campaign could bring down Hayes in a Dem year.
28. Michigan 11 (38) (Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) vs. Radio Talk Show Host Tony Trupiano (D))
The entry of Trupiano has Dems excited about taking the most winnable GOP-held seat in Michigan.  While this gerrymandered district will present a challenge, McCotter has never seen a strong opponent.  This is exactly the type of race we can win with a tide.

29. California 48 (18) (special election 12/6/05: State Sen. John Campbell (R) vs. Attorney Steve Young (D) vs. Minuteman Jim Gilchrist (I))
This race dropped following Young's lackluster showing in the open primary; he almost failed to force a runoff.  Still, if he can pick up moderate GOPer Marilyn Brewer's support and Gilchrist can cut into Campbell's right flank, Young could pull the upset in this heavily Republican Orange County district.

30. Florida 13 (40) (Buchanan/Hudson/Detert (R) vs. Jennings/Schneider/LaFevers (D))
This is Katherine Harris' seat (she's off to get trounced by Sen. Bill Nelson).  Unlike many, I don't attribute the Dems' strong showing here solely to an anybody-but-Harris phenomenon; I think we can actually win with her out.  The GOP has noone who stands out, and we have Christine Jennings, who is well-funded (although not as well as Buchanan or Hudson) or Jan Scneider, the '02 and '04 nominee.  Still an uphill battle, but doable.

31. Arizona 01 (33) (Rep. Rick Renzi (R) vs. Jackson/Caccioppoli/McKerlie (D))
Though the 1st was drawn to be a swing seat, Renzi has had two easy wins courtesy of Dem blundering.  This year, the Dems hope to reverse that with (most likely) Jack Jackson (the State Indian Affairs Commissioner).  This is a winnable seat, but Renzi is tough.  

32. West Virginia 02 (55) (Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) vs. former State Environmental Protection Secretary Mike Callaghan (D))
Callaghan looks to be a strong candidate for a seat the Dems held continuously until 2000.  His candidacy is a new one, so we'll see how it progresses.  This one could move a lot in either direction.
33. Minnesota 02 (43) (Rep. John Kline vs. Former FBI Agent Colleen Rowley (D))
Rowley is an intriguing candidate in this lean-GOP suburban seat.  She's got a story to tell and has had decent fundraising.  This one could move either way depending on whether Rowley catches on and on how her whistleblower role plays.

34. Virginia 02 (44) (Rep. Thelma Drake (R) vs. Iraq War Vet and '04 Nominee David Ashe or business consultant Troy Farlow (D))
This is a likely rematch of a hard fought open seat contest between Drake and Ashe.  Ashe's problem then is his problem now: lack of funding; his fundraising has been poor so far.  Still, Gov.-elect Tim Kaine's strong showing in Virginia Beach bodes well for the Dems here.

35. Michigan 09 (34) (Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) vs. Attorney Rhonda Ross (D) or '04 Nominee Steve Reifman (D))
It remains to be seen how strong our candidates are here.  What I do know is that this wealthy suburban Oakland County district is trending Dem, and that our top of the ticket in Michigan should do pretty well.

36. Pennsylvania 07 (45) (Rep. Curt Weldon (R) vs. Doctor and '04 Nominee Paul Scoles or Iraq War Vet Brian Lentz (D))
Weldon is an entrenched GOPer in an increasingly blue district.  Dems look be in very strong shape in the Delaware Valley generally, so the upswell in support for Rendell, Casey, and the 6th and 8th District challengers should help here as well.

37. Florida 08 (67) (Rep. Ric Keller (R) vs. Stuart/Hartage/Murray (D))
This race moved a lot because of the quality of the Dems.  Homer Hartage is an Orange County Commissioner, and Charlie Stuart (a marketing consultant) has outraised the incumbent.  This is a winnable district; it was extremely close as an open seat in 2000.

38. Ohio 15 (36) (Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) vs. Attorney Mark Losey (D))
The crushing defeat of the RON measures means that 1) we don't get a more favorable map; 2) that the Dems are still an ineffectual disorganized lot; and 3) the GOP state scandals have not generally soured the electorate on the GOP (as opposed to hurting various individual politicians).  None are good news for Losey, whose fundraising has been anemic.  Still, this is Columbus and Columbus is trending our way.

39. New York 26 (37) (Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) vs. Businessman Jack Davis (D)
This is a rematch of an unexpectedly close 2004 contest.  With Spitzer and Clinton at the top of the ticket, Davis may have a shot.  It remains to be seen whether he will self-fund as aggressively as last time.

40. Illinois 11 (50) (Rep. Jerry Weller (R) vs. Attorney John Pavich (D))
This southwest suburban/exurban seat is winnable for Dems.  Pavich is lesser known, but is off to a good fundraising start ($147,000 raised/$110,000 on hand).

41. Minnesota 01 (62) (Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) vs. Veteran Tim Walz or '04 Nominee Leigh Pomeroy (D)
Walz is another "fighting Dem" with a shot in 2006.  His fundraising has been fairly good; Pomeroy's has been nonexistent.  This is a winnable lean-GOP district.

42. Virginia 11 (48) (Rep. Tom Davis (R) vs. Attorney Andy Hurst or '04 Nominee Ken Longmyer (D))
With Dems' strong showing in Northern Virginia, Davis has to be running a bit scared.  It remains to be seen whether either of these candidates can be competitive against him.  I wonder if there's any chance Leslie Byrne would want to make a comeback challenge for this week after her near-Lt. Gov. miss; Byrne won this district 55-45 in that race.
43. Illinois 10 (49) (Rep. Mark Kirk (R) vs. Winnetka Park Board member Zane Smith (D))
Smith is a wealthy Dem whose profile fits this suburban district that has gone Dem in ever Presidential election since 1988.  It remains to be seen how competitive he is against Kirk.

44. Montana at Large (not rated) (Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) vs. State Rep. Monica Lindeen (D))
Lindeen is a very strong challenger for a statewide seat in a state that has been trending our way.  She has already raised $101,000 and Dems will be energized because of the Senate race.

45. California 11 (53) (Rep. Richard Pombo (R) vs. Filson/McNerney/Chacon (D))
Pombo has a carefully gerrymandered Northern Cali district that is winnable for the Dems on a good day.  Veteran Steve Filson appears to present our best chance; he's raised $105,000 and has $101,000 on hand.

46. Pennsylvania 18 (51) (Rep. Tim Murphy (R) vs. Veteran Tom Kovach (D))
This is a lean-GOP seat outside of Pittsburgh.  The Dems looked to have top tier candidate Barbara Hafer, but she backed out.  Kovach has strong potential, but he is a new candidate; we'll know more about how competitive he makes this race as time goes on.

47. Florida 24 (not rated) (Rep. Tom Feeney (R) vs. Veterinarian Andy Michaud (D))
This is a gerrymandered district in central Florida that just leans GOP.  Feeney drew it for himself and won it in '02 and '04.  Michaud looks to be a strong candidate.  He has raised $120,000 so far and could be poised for an upset.

48. New Jersey 05 (57) (Rep. Scott Garrett (R) vs. '04 Nominee Anne Wolfe or Consultant Paul Aronsohn (D))
This is a GOP seat, but it is New Jersey.  The Dems have had some decent showings here.  Wolfe's fundraising is so-so.

49. Pennsylvania 10 (61) (Rep. Don Sherwood (R) vs. Veteran Chris Carney (D))
This is a heavily GOP seat, but Sherwood has some baggage; he just settled a civil lawsuit for alleged assault against his much junior former mistress.  It remains to be seen whether Carney can win over moderates and conservatives with his military background.

50. Pennsylvania 04 (69) (Rep. Melissa Hart (R) vs. Maufacturing Exec. Georgia Berner or Ex-Hospital Exec. Jason Altmire (D))
This is a GOP seat, but both Berner and Altmire are off to good fundraising starts.  Dem Ron Klink held substantially the same seat until he left to run for the Senate in 2000.

51. New York 19 (not rated) (Rep. Sue Kelly or Log Cabin GOP Official Jeff Cook (R) vs. Aydelott/Rigger/Shuldiner (D))
Attorney Aydelott's strong fundraising ($185,000), with teacher Shuldiner at a respectable level as well, propelled this suburban and exurban New York district onto the list.  Kelly's primary challenge can't help her much, either.  

52. California 45 (not rated) (Rep. Mary Bono (R) vs. David Roth (D))
Roth looks like a decent challenger in a district that just missed the original list.  He's raised $94,000.

53. New York 20 (not rated) (Rep. John Sweeney vs. Attorney Kirsten Gillibrand or Stockbroker Morris Guller (D))
Gillibrand was another challenger that looks strong in a district that just missed my list.  There are no safe GOP districts in New York.

54. Pennsylvania 03 (47) (Rep. Phil English (R) vs. '04 Nominee Steve Porter (D))
English has held this lean-GOP seat comfortably since a close scare in 1996.  Porter has had almost no fundraising.

55. Ohio 03 (52) (Rep. Mike Turner (R) vs. Veteran David Fierst (D))
This is one of the Ohio seats that could be competitive, but the jury is still out whether the underfunded Fierst can make it so.

56. Ohio 04 (73) (?)
Rep. Mike Oxley's retirement announcement will generate activity on both sides.  This is the most GOP district in the state, however, so a win here would be a longshot.

57. Ohio 14 (71) (Rep. Steve LaTourette (R) vs. Meteorologist Palmer Peterson (D))
See analysis for Ohio 03.

58. Wisconsin 05 (not rated) (Rep. F. James Sensenbrenner (R) vs. '04 Nominee Bryan Kennedy (D))
This is the longest of longshots in a district I wouldn't wish on anyone, but Kennedy is aggressive and Sensenbrenner has made numerous missteps.  Still, a win here would be the biggest upset in modern political history and would signify the absolute demise of the GOP as we know it.

Originally posted to Superribbie on Wed Nov 09, 2005 at 02:21 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip jar (4.00)
    Hopefully, we get some candidates in the other winnable seats soon.
  •  75 sounds about right (none)
    I wouldn't put too much stock in these models, but if we assume that the normal rules apply again the Democrats should at least take back a majority in the House and could, under the right circumstances, take dozens of seats from the Republicans.

    It's up to the candidates and the activists to create as many of those circumstances as they can.

  •  CA 45 David Roth (none)
    Roth is a great guy.  I hope Southern CA Kossacks volunteer to help him.  I'm going to.

    Wes Clark, Proud Democrat for President 2008

    by Geronimo on Wed Nov 09, 2005 at 02:27:25 PM PST

  •  TX CD 6 (none)
    One more for the list...

    "Never has there been a good war or a bad peace." - Benjamin Franklin

    by rgrdave on Wed Nov 09, 2005 at 02:31:26 PM PST

  •  Illinois 10 (none)
    Our local blog The Glenview Watch had some more information on the potential candidates for Mark Kirk's seat.

    A poll paid for by the Democratic party suggests Congressman Mark Kirk could be vulnerable in the 2006 election. About 400 voters from the 10th congressional district were surveyed, and 70 percent said they had a favorable opinion of Kirk. When informed about some of his votes in the House, however, nearly half of those questioned said they'd vote for a Democrat instead. The poll's margin of error is about 5 percent, and Republicans doubt the findings, but at least seven people are considering a challenge to Kirk who has often sided with the Bush administration on controversial issues.

    Prospective candidates include:

    -- Barry Bradford, a Stevenson High School teacher and civil rights activist
    -- Jay Footlik, Clinton's chief liaison to the Jewish community and an advisor to Kerry
    -- Clint Krislov, a class action attorney and campaign reform advocate from Wilmette
    -- Angelo Kyle, a member of the Lake County Board from Waukegan
    -- David Robin, an actuary and attorney from Highland Park
    -- Zane Smith, a Winnetka attorney and park board member
    -- Dan Seals, a Wilmette businessman and former aide to Senator Joe Lieberman

    Barry Bradford was the teacher of the students who were instrumental in pursuing a trial in the Mississippi Burning Case. I don't know if he has what it takes to run for Congress but I think I'd be interested in hearing what he has to say.
  •  OH-15 (none)
    "1) we don't get a more favorable map; 2) that the Dems are still an ineffectual disorganized lot; and 3) the GOP state scandals have not generally soured the electorate on the GOP"

    1.  We don't need a more favorable map--Kerry won this District.

    2.  Franklin County has its act in gear moreso than other parts of the State but I won't take too much issue with this.

    3.  I don't agree with this statement at all.  I wouldn't take the RON election as a referendum on the GOP so much as a sign of a confused electorate.  My father is a lifelong Democrat and had no idea how he was supposed to vote.  I chalk this up to (1) too many things on the ballot and (2) poor voter education more than anything about the GOP which fielded only 1 candidate for the 5 major mayoral races yesterday.

    Also, its worth noting that in addition to Mark Losey, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy is supposedly entering the race.  So, I think this analysis is a bit off.
    •  Fair enough (none)
      My points about RON are that 1) a neutral remap would almost certainly include a Columbus seat, which would almost certainly go Dem, rather than the split of the city and the three-way split of the county which allow for Pryce and Tiberi to hang around; and 2) the "poor voter education" is a direct result of above point #2.  You may be right in that individuals with (R)s after their name may suffer because the party doesn't have to educate anyone as to what that means.
    •  OH-15 (none)
      Actually Kerry lost the Ohio 15th by about 1% or 2,746 votes, largely on the 70% Bush received in Union County. Kerry did win Franklin County by 9%, which was a 6% swing from Gore's 48% in 2000, so this could be a Dem district by now.
  •  PA-08 -- Corrections (none)
    Patrick Murphy raised way over $150K so far -- not a shaby number for this early! He is running strong and has a solid campaign team behind him. I expect his fundraising to pick up.

    Paul Lang dropped out of the race. He will be running running for state senate.

  •  John Hostettler #15 is the idiot who tried to (none)
    get past airport security with a handgun after 9/11.  He has no business in the House.  His seat needs to be targeted by the Democratic Party.  The man is a jerk.  
  •  NV2 (none)
    If Darby wins, it'll mean a huge Dem year -- far beyond our wildest current expectations.

    By the way, I'm not sure that would be the best thing -- if the Dems were to pick up a lot of seats in conservative districts like this one, the caucus would be harder to keep together and more likely to lean to the center-right.

    I actually think a tighter and more unified (and progressive) caucus would be better even if we dont' come up with a majority (so long as we're close enough to be abel to peel off a few moderate republicans on key votes and prevent the GOP leadership from controlling the chamber).

    •  That's an interesting question (none)
      I tend to come out the other way just because a majority party has a huge amount of power to stack things their way via the committee system.  We were regularly a few votes from a majority from 1996-2002, and we couldn't do squat.  I'll take the position where we get all of our bills to the floor and sometimes can't pass some of them due to defections while the GOP gets none of theirs to the floor over the reverse situation.
    •  Nothing is good about being in the minority (none)
      There is no advantage to being in the minority party. Only the majority party gets to choose the speaker and the committee assignments. Saying it would be better to be in the minority if only the caucus ideology would be a certain way is short sighted.

      There are too many districts/states in which a left-leaning candidate could not win. Just as the GOP 'allows' candidates to be moderate [ala Chris Shays] the Democrats need to cop to the fact that there are districts where you need to run pro-life/gun/social conservative/support the troops/etc. It's just the demographic facts of life. Does anyone think LG and Gov-Elect Tim Kaine of VA would have been elected if he ran pro-gay marriage or not mentioned his religion during his race?

      The purpose of partisan organizations is to elect party nominees.

  •  CO-7 O'Donnell or Democrat (none)
    Mark Paschall is either going to be a GOP also-ran, or a spoiler who puts either of the Dems into the office.  His campaign is way behind in funding right now, but he may cause trouble for Rick O'Donnell, who was a weak-kneed supporter of Referendum C.

    The wingnut base of the GOP is steamed over their loss on Ref. C last week; if they can pull it together for one of their own, Paschall can pull out a victory at the Caucuses in March and the Republican State Assembly in April/May.  Whether that puts him in the GOP driver's seat for the primary or not, I can't predict.  But if Paschall manages to mount a real challenge, either Democratic candidate will easily win the seat - moderate Republicans and Independents just won't take a winger like Paschall in this district.

    O'Donnell on the other hand is going to have a hard time appeasing the GOP base, and he may suffer from a depressed turnout.  (Offset by a likely anti-gay amendment attempt?)

    Neither Perlmutter nor Lamm are barnburners at the stump, but they're both solid candidates.  My prediction is a 65% chance that Perlmutter pulls this one out.

    Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves. - William Pitt

    by Phoenix Rising on Wed Nov 09, 2005 at 03:11:35 PM PST

  •  CA-50 (none)
    This is a San Diego County Race.  It will be tough for Busby to pick off this seat unless she gets a ton of money.  

    Busby has posted on DailyKos and this is a good chance for San Diego Kossacks to get involved, or at least put a few $$'s her way.

    "Constitutional Crisis Forthcoming"

    by egarratt on Wed Nov 09, 2005 at 03:14:53 PM PST

  •  NY-26 Massa and dont forget Courage (none)
    Massa is running a grassroots campaign from the local level which should be commendable.  However, when you glance at his FEC Oct report, he only has a COH of $14,676.37.  As a resident of NY-26, I hope he is spending his money wisely.  

    Dont forget John Courage (TX-?), receiving the most votes in the 2005 DFA endorsement bid recently.

    "We must be the change we wish to see in the world." - Mahatma Gandhi

    by optimusprime on Wed Nov 09, 2005 at 03:15:19 PM PST

  •  More info on CO-4 (none)
    Paccione's exploratory campaign ran an informed poll of 500 likely voters in Colorado's 4th CD in July. Angie officially announced at Unbossed on September 16th and conducted a live blog with us later that day.

    Among many encouraging signs, Musgrave's re-elect numbers are a humiliating 36%. Oof.

    Unbought, the new ass-kicking little sister of Unbossed, seeking activist bloggers.

    by em dash on Wed Nov 09, 2005 at 03:21:08 PM PST

  •  interesting... (none)
    In NH-2 they're waiting to see whether Harold Baines, the mayor of Manchester, decides to run.  He's probably easily the strongest possible candidate.  In NH-1 there's a sense that Bradley is vulnerable but the challenger picture is murky.  There's a strong sense of state Republican wobbliness too (control of their state legislature) and the two U.S. Senators are not the raving nutjobs they were in '02 and '03 since Kerry won.

    I may have missed some of these in your list, but if you don't have them I'd also add CT-5 (Nancy Johnson may retire), NY-3 (Peter King may retire, or face a strong challenger in the form of David Denenberger), NY-13 (Fossella may be shaky and collateral damage), NJ-2/3/7 are worth more looking into, OH-1 (Chabot) and OH-12 (Tiberi) are vulnerable, KY-3's Anne Northup is a perennial favorite target, Christopher John is out to retake LA-7 from Boustany, Mark Foley in FL-16 is close to retiring and Lois Frankel would be the ideal Democrat to replace him, Jim Kolbe might retire in AZ-8 which would be a fairly easy Democratic gain, and everything Republican in Nevada looks opaque including Jon Porter's hold on NV-3.

    Renewal, not mere Reform.

    by killjoy on Wed Nov 09, 2005 at 03:28:02 PM PST

    •  All of these are races in my initial list (none)
      but all (except CT-05, which is #21 in this one) lack challengers as of this writing.  If John has declared in LA-07, that race is immediately top tier, but I don't think he has.

      Similarly, Bob Baines lost reelection yesterday, so his future is up in the air; longtime White Sox right fielder and then DH Harold Baines isn't from NH. :)

  •  Great diary (none)
    thank you.

    the meek shall inherit the earth

    by Howaboutthetruth on Wed Nov 09, 2005 at 03:33:15 PM PST

  •  you inspired me (none)
    to try to find out if anyone is challenging Ron Paul in TX 14, and I finally found the answer, which is yes.  His name is Shane Sklar and he's a conservative democrat.  according to his website.

    I don't know what that means, but I  contacted his campaign with a few questions, so we'll see what he says.

    Thanks for the great diary

  •  Sorry, I can't help asking-- (none)
    Why do you refer to #5 Rep. Heather Wilson of New Mexico's first district as "nipplewoman"?

    "If you give the people a choice between a Republican and a Republican, they'll choose the Republican every time." - Harry Truman

    by Rydra Wrong on Wed Nov 09, 2005 at 04:00:40 PM PST

  •  Looking better and better (none)
    Getting 15 without losing any Dem seats looks entirely doable.  Strong candidates are popping up daily.  The number of veterans (both Iraq War and older) is astounding.  We won't win all these races.  But the GOP is gonna be swamped defending them all, while they only have realistic shots at maybe three of ours (Chet Edwards, Melissa Bean, Jim Marshall).  It's interesting that the three of them are conservative Dems, and that two of them have been threatened only be mid-decade redistricting (Bean is vulnerable because she knocked off a GOP incumbent last year).
    •  To be fair, (4.00)
      the GOP has a serious shot at Melancon (LA-03), the Ohio 06 open seat, and arguably Matheson (UT-02), Salazar (CO-03), Barrow (GA-12), Holden (PA-17), Moore (KS-03), Boswell (IA-03), and the Ohio 13 open seat.  Also, some joker I've never heard of has raised over a million dollars to take on Henry Cuellar (TX-28).
      •  TX 28 (none)
        Is "the joker" you are referring to Richard Raymond, who is challenging the quasi-Dem Cuellar in the Democratic primary??

        Or is there a GOPer out there who has raised a million?

        Please the way, it is not gonna matter. Armendariz Klein (GOPer in the 25th district) raised a piss load of money in Doggett's district, and got her ass handed to her. The one thing about the DeLaymander in Texas: with the exception of Edwards, the Democratic districts are UBER-Democratic.

      •  Two more things (none)
        add John Barrow (GA-12) and Jim Marshall (GA-3, running in GA-8 due to the redistricting).

        As for Cuellar, he could lose in the primary in March. Granted, I wouldn't miss him too much if he lost in the Primary.

        "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

        by RBH on Wed Nov 09, 2005 at 04:17:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Forgot Melancon (none)
        He'll face the tough race that all new-comers face, especially running in unfriendly territory.  Same goes for Salazar, but I've heard only positive things coming out of that race.  Matheson and Moore seem to have become entrenched, even after being forced into even more unfriendly districts.  From what I've read, the end result of the Georgia redistrict is that Barrow is now running in a new district, one that is actually more friendly than the previous one (although Marshall got screwed).

        As for Cuellar, I'm just hoping the backstabbing prick gets taken out in a primary.  The millionaire mystery candidate is an interesting development, but the district does lean Dem.

        Ultimately, if the GOP couldn't take out these blue dog Democrats in 2004 with Bush at the top of the ticket, they'll be hard pressed to do so next year with widespread GOP disapproval.

      •  If Salazar, Barrow, and Bosworth (none)
        are on the lower half of their top ten target list, then I'm optimistic.  

        Hell, that's the best news I've heard since... well, there's been lots of good news this month.  But still.

        Hm.  I eagerly await your post on vulnerable D seats.

      •  KS-03 SAFE (none)
        DMo destroyed his challenger(a well funded Ashcroft DOJ lackey) last cycle - it was his largest margin of victory ever (+10) in a district GWB carried easily.

        The NRCC doesn't plan to dump another 1/2 million after losing the past 3 cycles here in a GOP majority district, especially in light of 04's humbling loss. The declared GOP candidate is an unknown. The MFC operation is well run and although he will never be able to sit back, 'KS-03 looks to be safe in '06.

  •  Primary challenges in California (none)
    For some reason (probably term-limits related), Woolsey and Filner have challengers right now. Joe Nation and Juan Vargas appear to be funded well (IOW, 6 digits). But then again, those seats (CA-6 and CA-51) are safe from Republicans. So that's good

    "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

    by RBH on Wed Nov 09, 2005 at 04:07:13 PM PST

  •  Defense updates (none)
    $347,418 raised by former backbencher Mac Collins in his run against Democratic Congressman Jim Marshall in GA-08. Marshall has $521,608 raised and over $627 on hand. Collins has $302K on hand.

    $371,097 raised by former Rep. Othell Maxie "Max" Burns and $307K is on hand. Yes, his first name is really Othell and his middle name is really Maxie. John Barrow has almost $745K raised and almost $670K on hand.

    "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

    by RBH on Wed Nov 09, 2005 at 04:13:25 PM PST

  •  I'd like to see the MT-at-large repub go down (none)
    As you said about the WI-05 "(it) would signify the absolute demise of the GOP as we know it." And that Barbara whoever (Cox?) in WY is increasingly unpopular. I hear she is kind of an idiot. MT and WY come to mind because they have Dem governers and marrying a Dem gov with the one-and-only House rep would probably be beneficial (actually, a good diary would be to try and make a case for this).

    And if we also took down WI-05 as well it would certainly be Game Over for the GOP as we know it.

    "He lives most life whoever breathes most air." Elizabeth Barrett Browning

    by SeattleChris on Wed Nov 09, 2005 at 04:19:00 PM PST

    •  Those at-large House seats (none)
      are the most important in the country.  They're safe from gerrymandering and incumbent-protection, and are natural stepping stones for governor and Senator.  In North and South Dakota we have the at-large House seats, just waiting for their turn in the Senate (I'm hoping Stephanie Herseth (SD) is ready to take on Thune in 2010).  In Vermont, Sanders is ready to crush his opponent in his Senate run because he already has represented the entire state for years.

      Unfortunately, in Delaware the Republican Mike Castle, a former governor, has become entrenched in the House, and should Biden retire to run for president, Castle may shoot for his seat.

      In Wyoming, we're stuck with two far-right wingnut Senators, one of whom looks ready to breeze through re-election next year without a challenger.  Gov. Freudenthal (D) may decide to go for Enzi's seat in 2010, but he may not.

  •  IN-06 Barry Welsh vs Mike Pence (none)
    Liberal Methodist minister Barry Welsh is challanging the bible thumping chairman of the RSC, Mike Pence. (The RSC are the guys behind "Operation Offset).

    Most say the race is a longshot, but Barry is already getting some press and party attention because he's a great speaker and as a minister he can help fight the so-called "values gap"

    The Methodist's issuing their condemnation of the war also helping his standing. Remember, in 2006, NO GOP SEAT IS SAFE!

  •  PA-18 (none)
    Thank you for the mention of our campaign.  We are  running an extremely aggressive grassroots campaign against Tim Murphy.  As I see it, we are playing Steeler's ball --- strong ground game, excellent lines on both sides of the ball and a controlled ground game.  Right now, Dave Anderson (AKA Fester of Fester's Place and the D-Kos diaries is running the netroots outreach effort.  He is focused on Southwestern Pennsylvania bloggers, readers and activists to fuse the new activism with successful proven methods.  

    We are planning to go live on Daily Kos this Thursday, and our interim campaign blog can be found at

  •  NY-19 (none)
    While we're glad to make the list after years of being considered a safe district for Republicans, NY's 19th isn't even close to upstate NY. The district starts in NYC's northern suburbs and stretches into the exurbs and second-home territory.

    Well in advance of the 2006 race, we've formed a group called Take19 and we've been blogging about Sue Kelly's curious record.

    •  I was geographically challenged yesterday (none)
      Also, me, the Chicagoan, just divided NY into three groups: Long Island (1-4 and most of 5), NYC (rest of 5-18), and "upstate" (19-29).  You are absolutely right that the 19th is still NY burbs.  My bad.
  •  Keep your eye on NY-25 (none)
    Walsh is vulnerable.
  •  Correction (none)
    In Missouri, McCaskill(D) vs. Talent(R)

    -4.00, -5.33 "l'alito, il fumo del sudor, la polve par che ne l'aria oscura nebbia stampi"(Ariosto, Orlando Furioso 16:57)

    by 4jkb4ia on Mon Nov 14, 2005 at 10:09:19 AM PST

  •  NJ and NY (none)
    NJ 7 (Mike Ferguson) got only 57% last time and I've seen some on line buzz about the district.  In a good Democratic year it would make the list.  As you say, it is Jersey.

    IIRC, Sherwood Boehlert (R-Utica) has not raised much money and was mentioned as a possible retiree in NY 24.  Even with Boehlert, who has represented the district for over 20 years, the Rs got only 57%.  As an open seat in a Dem year this would certainly fly to the middle of your list or higher.

    I'd like to think that in a very bad year for the GOPers, somebody else in Jersey would fall, whether it was Saxton (63%), LoBiondo (65%), Smith (67%) or Frelinghuysen (68%).  Frelinghuysen has received only token opposition the last few go arounds.  His district (mostly Morris County) is still very heavily Republican, however (i live in it, along the border in Essex).                            

  •  NY-20... (none)
    I missed this when first posted (day after election day exhaustion).

    In NY-20... I'm glad to see this on your radar screen because you are right there are no safe republican districts in NY. Kirsten Gillibrand will give Sweeney a very serious challenge. Guller is a non-starter, don't even bother with him. I don't know if anything ever came of the case but his attempt to run last year was dealt a serious blow when it turned out that his petitions contained numerous clearly fraudulent signatures. This guy is not a serious candidate.

    Gillibrand on the other hand is a very serious candidate and I believe will be our next Congresswoman.

  •  I know its a long, long, long shot (none)
    But Dr Robert Johnson (No relation to the bluseman apparently) is again running in the NY-23.  He was a Republican (I'm from CNY and its a very red area)but left the party as it was no longer "compassionarte nor conservative".  His big issue is Healthcare and he thinks we need a single payer system.  This is his website:

    Dr Bob Johnson

    His opponent is a total Bush sycophant, John McHugh.

    As I said, a very long shot, but if the Dems could muster a consensus that healthcare had to be fixed he might get carried in on the wave.

  •  OH-04 (none)
    My sources in OH-04 (Oxley's old district) suggest that the GOP is a bit desperate there. Some background: my inlaws, who live in this district, are recovering GOPers, nearly all of whose friends are very active GOPers.  Seems that the local GOP is scrambling around trying to find a fresh face, i.e. a candidate who is unmarked by participation in the increasingly corrupt Ohio GOP, or by any sort of relationship to the increasingly unpopular Bush administration. Better news still: the fresh face I happen to know personally seems bent on saying "no."

    GreenSooner is the Rufus T. Firefly Chair in Freedonian Studies at the Poorman Institute for Freedom and Democracy and Palmer

    by GreenSooner on Mon Nov 14, 2005 at 01:13:23 PM PST

  •  WV-02 (none)
    Kudos, Supes. Fine work.

    As for how things are shaping in WV-02, Mike Callaghan hit the ground running after announcing last Tuesday. Callaghan generated good coverage in print throughout the district as well as a surprising amount in in-state markets outside WV-02 (but with some overlap).

    Since the announcement Callaghan has blitzed local radio and the small-town papers as well. And excitement seems to be building. Contributions have soared. An amusing war of words in the Readers Voice and letters to the editor sections of the newspapers has broken out.

    Most interestingly, after initially attacking Mike as an ass, the state's GOP blogger (yeah, is one young college fellow interning for Vic Sprouse) this morning slapped up a depressed and resigned post from the Huntington paper regarding Capito's vulnerability. Oddly, this seems reflective of a general GOP demoralization in state. Callaghan's coverage has been more intense and prominently placed in the state's GOP media arms than in the Democratic mouthpiece and paper of record, the Charleston Gazette.

    Rep Capito has remained conspicuously silent on the Callaghan challenge, delegating attacks on Mike Callaghan to her surrogates like Rob Capeheart. Callaghan has remained relentlessly positive on a personal level, focusing entirely on political and philosophical differences between himself and Rep. Capito.

    Democrats are hopeful and sense the opportunity. The Republicans appear to be running scared.

    Callaghan's official start went off as well as could have been expected. For now he's chipping away at a big old rock with a little chisel. Eventually, the rock will get smaller and Mike will be able to upgrade to a sledge.

    Politics is the art of the possible.

    by pinhickdrew on Mon Nov 14, 2005 at 01:43:12 PM PST

  •  CA-11 (none)
    Pombo is the most odious sort. Fortunately, San Ramon has doubled in size since the district was created, causing this to be a more difficult hold for a Republican who is relying on Central Valley voters (versus more moderate and liberal surburbanites).

    When Jesus returns, religious wingnuttia will have him committed to an asylum. - anonymous

    by Doug in SF on Mon Nov 14, 2005 at 02:12:49 PM PST

    •  The race that could be... (none)
      Unfortunately DCCC was unable to persuade St.Sen Machado from challenging Pombo - that would have been made this a top tier race as Machado had proven to be an able campaigner and successful FR.  

      The Navy Vet they recruited has raised 100K, but realistically he will need around a million to run a competitive campaign against Pombo.   Pombo spent a million last time against a challenger who raised around 150K.  In '06 if needed Pombo probably could raise another 1/2 million easily.  

      Realistically the state Democratic Party in CA needs to get its act in gear and stop hemmoragging Democratic voters(there are less Dem's #'s wise than in 1994)  They should run a coordinated campaign in CA-11 to pump up Dem registration in precincts with high Dem Perf numbers(per NCEC data) and additionally pump up turnout in high Dem Perf precincts through a overlayed absentee ballot program.

      This could also help local state Assembly candidates as well, particularly the district centered around the city of Dublin/Pleasanton.

      •  Please explain (none)
        They should run a coordinated campaign in CA-11 to pump up Dem registration in precincts with high Dem Perf numbers(per NCEC data) and additionally pump up turnout in high Dem Perf precincts through a overlayed absentee ballot program.

        What are Perf numbers and what is NCEC data?

  •  MI-7 (none)
    I would rank MI-7 highest of all the MI seats. Last year Renier didn't raise any money, wasn't much of a campaign - Schwarz hasn't been challenged by a strong D yet (so the Kerry/Bush percentage breakdown might be more of an accurate figure than Renier/Schwarz). This would be his first re-election fight, so he'll be most vulnerable now. But most importantly, Club For Growth is backing an opponent next year. I'd say it's even money whether Schwarz even makes it out of the primary alive. If this turns into an open seat, anything could happen.

    Michigan Liberal, for MI politics news & analysis

    by lpackard on Mon Nov 14, 2005 at 02:14:21 PM PST

  •  FL-13 (none)
    That's mine, if I'm still here in a year. Any links to the candidates on our side?

    Next year will be my first vote in this district. I would tend to vote for the lady who took on Cruella last time (Schneider?), but I'm open to persuasion in a primary.

  •  FL-06 (none)
    Despite a tough row to hoe, this is a winnable district. Until last cycle, it was a majority Democratic and there are a great number of union workers from the North retiring to some of our incredible communities in the southern part of the District, like On Top of the World and the Villages.

    If you would like to help our campaign or just learn more about it, visit!

  •  Lamm is my choice (none)
    I heard Lamm speak a few weeks back -- very impressive.  She's got a lot of passion, speaks well, and is really hitting the Repubs on corruption.

    I also got a blast e-mail she sent out last week where she called for Rove to be fired -- music to my ears!

    Perlmutter worries me a little bit.  He's just too close to the 17th street lawyers (that's Denvers version of K street) and developers.  Plus he voted for vouchers in the legislature.

    If anyone wants to learn more, both have decent websites up, but nothing great.

  •  IL-06 (none)
    According to Hotline On Call another potential IL-06 candidate is Iraq War veteran and triple amputee Tammy Duckworth.  
  •  NJ-07 (none)
    Don't know quite why this district slipped off the list -- there is a Democratic challenger who announced back in September, former mayor of Hillsborough Township Joseph Tricarico. Is he too small time to even rank against Ferguson?

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