Up front, I grant that:
- It was wrong to invade.
- We have done horrific things in the prosecution of this war.
- Those responsible must be held accountable.
With that said, I'm a solutions kinda guy. You know, the sort who always wants to solve his wife's problems rather than listen and sympathize. (I'm still learning on that front.) So I'm not interested in punishing or blaming or reviewing the past except as a means of planning a sound solution going forward.
Here's how to reduce the threat to national security posed by the Iraq war: Hand off the leadership roles in rebuilding, security, and governing to the U.N. over the course of two years (we will still likely have to provide the bulk of the boots on the ground, certainly at first). Then, over the course of two more years, gradually return control of the country to native Iraqi infrastructure. Throughout, keep footing the bill.
At a simple, strategic-concept level, here's how the messaging, time and dollars go:
First, announce that this is the strategy. Lay out the plan for all to see. A 24-month road to total U.N. control of the country, followed by a 24-month road to total self-rule.
It's about being tough. Very, very tough. On ourselves, first and foremost. "We did a horrific thing. The situation now is a danger to the entire world. We recognize that the world community should own the solution. We will still pay for it, as we were responsible."
Immediately begin talks with the U.N. about how this will work. Remember, the U.N. folks are the ones who will be holding the reins when we're done, so the goal is to facilitate the U.N. plan. Demand transparency, though, since it will still be largely U.S. money behind the mission.
Contract by contract, budget item by budget item, transfer all reconstruction contracts to U.N. supervision. Continue the current levels of investment (we broke it, we bought it, to quote Powell), but do so by giving that money to the U.N. administrator for Iraq.
Unit by unit, bring U.S. troops home, simultaneously replacing them with U.N.-controlled forces as they are made available. Focus on finding ways to use troops from culturally familiar (arabic or muslim) nations. KEEP PAYING FOR IT. Our troops come home, but our dollars stay. It's our responsibility. Remember Powell's words.
Loudly and clearly communicate to the American public and the world exactly how much money is going into this still. Show that we are stil responsible and committed.
Create and supervise dedicated training facilities for Iraqi soldiers and police officers in safe locations (outside Iraq, if necessary). Commit to a solid, 6-month training cycle that produces high-quality professionals. Ensure that they are well paid.
During the first two years, as U.N. control is established, Iraqi troops and cops are trained and fielded. Deploy them using the "oil spot" theory: create a few safe havens out of entire communities by hyper-supporting their infrastructure and security (no walls; use troops, cops, and money), then let the civilization and economic development spread outward from them.
During the second two years, focus on building rather than fighting. Spread those "oil spots." The populace will do the insurgent suppression through social pressure, as they see what can be had peacefully and how insurgency delays the arrival of prosperity.
Accountability. Responsibility. Transparency. World citizenship. These are the pillars of a sound exit strategy.
Response to concerns below in the comments
It is important to understand that I have no intention of extricating the U.S. from this entirely. There's just no way that works.
What I intend is that the U.S. step out of the leadership role, and allow our troops and resources to be allocated just as any other U.N. contributor's would be.
A number of nations that would not join the U.S. effort, I believe, would join a U.N.-led effort, even if that effort were conducted using 90% U.S. resources.
The fact that our financial and human commitment remains, even as we step out of the driver's seat, shows that we are serious about fixing things and are equally serious about being a good international citizen.
It's about repentance. It is not enough to admit wrongdoing. One must atone, and take corrective action. We atone by paying for the reconstruction. We correct the crime of unilateral pre-emptive war by submitting to multilateral command.
Regarding the "oil spot" theory, and its application:
We have, so far, focused heavily on fighting our way to a stable enough situation that we can build. This, in my view, is a poor implementation of the "oil spot" theory.
Better would be to empower local business people to do the work from the ground up. Micro-loans. Access to subsidized, modern materials. Publish, locally, the accounting of what's going on.
In essence, instead of protecting foreign contractors, or shooting enough people that we think we can open the place for business, co-opt the existing Iraqi entrepreneur pool. And do it in a low-cash, high-resource fashion to reduce graft.
You're an Iraqi building contractor? You can build homes and offices and industrial buildings? Great. Give us your plan, let us audit, and we'll give you enough of a loan to meet payroll and we'll throw open our construction materials warehouse here in town so you can get to work.
Local, local, local. The oil-spot theory only works if it's contagious in implementation. It's the prosperity that brings peace, not the other way around.